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Further progress
against Al-Shabaab
This week, TFG forces and their allies, Ahlu Suna wal Jama’a, made
significant progress in dislodging Al-Shabaab terrorists in a number
of areas. Operations in
Mogadishu and in the regions have been progressing with previously
unprecedented momentum with significant
headway in the last few days. After Al-Shabaab suffered a heavy
defeat at Belet-Hawa near Mandera last week, TFG forces have
advanced from there and from Dolo towards Yugut, a village sixty
five kilometres west of Baidoa, the former seat of the TFP and the
capital of Bakool region, where heavy fighting has been taking
place. The stakes are high as Yugut is the last defensive point
before Baidoa. Al-Shabaab has now lost control of three districts,
Yet, Aata and El-Barde in Bakool region, and three other districts
in Gedo region, Belet-Hawa, Luq and El-wak districts.
One effect of these successes against Al-Shabaab is that it now
allows the
international community to take the opportunity to deliver much
needed humanitarian assistance through the new corridors that have
been opened up. Al-Shabaab has regularly denied all access to the
international agencies for delivery of humanitarian aid and
assistance to those in need of which the numbers are growing.
In Mogadishu, on Wednesday, TFG forces managed to push Al-Shabaab
forces out of several blocks in Hawl-wadag and Hodan districts,
approaching the main Bakaraha market. They have also managed to join
together forces operating in different districts to open a new
front. Following this, and other recent successes, President Sharif
visited a number of zones this week, walking in the streets to boost
the morale of Somali forces in the frontline. He urged the troops
“to move ahead until the enemy is forced out from Mogadishu city”.
It appears that Al-Shabaab has been shaken by the loss of important
positions in Mogadishu and the cutting of its strategic corridor to
Gedo and the threat to Bakool region. It has also been affected by
the defiance and dislike now being manifested more and more
frequently by communities in South-Central Somalia. It now appears
highly unlikely that Al-Shabaab could generate much support in these
areas: the forceful conscription of underage youths, the uneasy
relationship between the leadership of Al-Shabaab, and the dismay
demonstrated by the business community over Al-Shabaab activities
and the criticism of prominent Somali elders in a number of regions
even some still under Al-Shabaab control, are clear indications of
its growing repudiation and an indication that it is weakening.
In another development, President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed
relieved all his security force commanders of their
responsibilities. The decree followed a proposal from ministers who
had security responsibilities and Prime Minister Mohamed Abdulahi
Farmajo. The President, after considering the ministerial
suggestions and evaluating the country’s current security needs and
the need for improving the national security sector, on Monday
dismissed a number of senior officers. They included the Commander
of the Military Forces of Somalia General Ahmed Jimaale Geedi; the
Commander of the National Security Service, General Mohamed Sheikh
Hassan Haamud; the Commander of Prison Administration, General
Abdullahi Ma’alin Ali and the Commander of Police Force, General Ali
Mohamed Hassan Looyan.
Coming at a time when
government forces were involved in a series of successful military
operations against Al-Shabaab, some observers saw the dismissals as
unhelpful, allowing the opposition to use it as propaganda against
the gains of the TFG on the ground. Others viewed them as an
indication of the continuing divisions within the Transitional
Federal Institutions.
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North and South
Sudan continue talks on post referendum issues
The CPA signatories, the SPLM and the NCP, held several days of
talks last week in Ethiopia on various post-referendum issues
concerning finance, economic issues and natural resources.
Delegations were led by the SPLM’s Secretary General and by a
Minister in President Al-Bashir’s office, and the talks were
moderated by the African High Level Implementation Panel on Sudan (AUHIP)
led by former South African President Mbeki.
The negotiations, March 2nd to 5th, covered
macro-economic issues including Sudan’s debt, assets and
liabilities, wealth sharing, currency and banking, trade and related
payment arrangements. At a subsequent press conference last Sunday,
Mr. Mbeki said the fundamental principle that informed the
discussions was the intent to make the two states, of North and
South Sudan, viable. Both Parties had committed themselves to
cooperate. They have agreed that the destiny of their peoples are
intertwined and that they should work towards ensuring a
collaborative framework to address all outstanding issues before
July 9th when South Sudan becomes an independent state.
The two parties are negotiating on a number of post-referendum
issues, the most important of which are the disputed area of Abyei,
currency, oil, Nile water, citizenship, international agreements and
Sudan’s debt liabilities. Mr. Mbeki said the parties had made
significant progress in the negotiations and had identified the
issues on which decisions will be necessary. The two parties will
continue their post-referendum talks in Sudan before returning to
Ethiopia at the beginning of April for another round of
negotiations.
The parties recognized the importance of reaching consensus on
handling Sudan’s oil and petroleum infrastructure, considering the
future of the state owned Sudapet and Nilepet petroleum companies,
pipelines and the existing exploration and production sharing
agreements. They agreed that by the end of negotiations they would
conclude a treaty to deal with oil matters in the future. Agreement
was also reached on establishing a joint committee to consider ways
to facilitate trade and trade-related payment arrangements. The
committee is to report to the parties by the end of May. A separate
ad hoc committee on border demarcation has reached agreement of 80%
of the border, though the remaining 20% will be hardest to agree on.
On currency issues the parties discussed the modalities of currency
arrangements, harmonization of monetary and fiscal policies, and the
institutional mechanisms that should be put in place after July 9th.
The parties also looked at issues of assets and debt which the Sudan
owes to creditors to the tune of 38 billion US dollars. Both
recognized that this debt is unsustainable and they agreed in the
interests of economic stability for both North and South Sudan, that
the two parties should make a joint effort to obtain debt relief
from Sudan’s international creditors. They agreed to send a joint
team to the forthcoming meetings of the World Bank and the IMF to
campaign for debt relief. Sudan reduced debt repayments last year
and requested rescheduling of its debt from its main creditors.
These include the IMF, the World Bank, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Austria
and the United States. The SPLM’s Secretary-General, Pagan Amum,
said that the south was ready to join in efforts to achieve debt
relief but this was conditional on northern cooperation in other
areas including Abyei and the redemption of the Sudanese currency
when the south changes its currency after July.
At the press conference, Mr. Mbeki noted that the matter of Abyei
had to be taken up at the highest level. He said that the AUHIP
would be having a meeting with President Omar al-Bashir and First
Vice-President, Salva Kirr, the President of the Government of South
Sudan, next week. There will also be a meeting of Ministers of
Defense to discuss post-referendum security arrangements which
should confirm a number of already agreed security issues. The
latest violence in Abyei underlines the point that the matter must
be resolved, said Mr. Mbeki.
Overall, Mr. Mbeki said, there had been movement on all outstanding
issues, and he expressed the confidence of the AUHIP that all could
be settled before the July 9th date for South Sudan
independence. The manner of the parties, he said, indicated a
determination and a positive intent to bring the negotiations to a
successful end; and they had the capacity to do so. Mr. Mbeki
emphasized that there was “a shared commitment to resolve
outstanding issues and to make sure there is no return to war.”
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A
Turkish business delegation in Ethiopia
A high level Turkish business delegation led by Mr. Zafer Caglayan,
State Minister for Foreign Trade of the Republic of Turkey, visited
Ethiopia between 8th and 10th March. It
included representatives of more than a hundred Turkish companies
and members included
Mr. Rıza Nur Meral, Chairman
of the
Turkish Confederation of Businessmen and Industrialists (TUSKON)
and Mr. Mehmet Büyükekşi, Chairman of the
Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM), two giant private sector
associations. Also present in the delegation were the Honorary
Consuls General of Ethiopia in Turkey, representatives of the
Turkish-African Business Council, the respective Chambers of
Commerce, and various export promotion councils. Companies
represented came from an array of different sectors:
textile manufacturing, the construction industry, electrics and
electronics, foodstuff manufacturing, automotive assembly, the
chemical and petroleum industries, machinery companies, agricultural
industry and others.
During the delegation’s two day visit it participated in a high
profile trade and investment forum (which attracted over 500
people), bilateral talks between government officials and business
to business meetings between different companies. The State Minister
paid courtesy calls on President Girma Woldegiorgis and Prime
Minister Meles and discussed various important bilateral issues. A
Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the two countries,
granting a US 100 million dollar credit line for the financing of
exports from Turkey to Ethiopia, by the EXIM Bank of Turkey which
provides credit to Turkish investors. Ethiopia itself needs to exert
more effort to increase its own exports to Turkey from the current
level of no more than US $10 million. Turkey exports over US$150
million worth of goods to Ethiopia. Both sides noted that the trade
deficit should be narrowed.
In bilateral talks, Ato Sufian Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Minister of Finance
and Economic Development held fruitful discussions with his Turkish
counterpart, covering virtually all matters related to economic
cooperation between the two countries. From the Ethiopian side those
present included the Ministers of Industry, Agriculture, Urban
Development and Construction, Federal Affairs, Trade, and Transport,
as well as the Presidents of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia and the
Development Bank of Ethiopia. The meeting arrived at a consensus on
all issues pertaining to deepening and expanding trade and
investment cooperation, undertaken primarily by the private sector;
and Ethiopia has pledged to resolve problems related to Turkish
investors in the country. Turkey has made an all-out-effort to
register a solid growth record, and Ethiopia can learn from the
policies implemented and the way challenges to the private sector
have been addressed. The discussions took note of the fact that the
number of projects now under implementation by investors from Turkey
in Ethiopia had reached 149 with a total amount of US$819 million
invested. Turkey is now one of Ethiopia’s five major investment
partners and there is considerable potential for increasing this. It
has generously offered short-term training for 25 Ethiopian public
servants, to provide experience sharing in such areas as small and
medium enterprises, export development, attracting Foreign Direct
Investment, and the agriculture and energy sectors in which Turkey
has accumulated rich experience.
Ethio-Turkish relations have a long history, establishing official
diplomatic relations in 1925. Turkey opened its mission in Addis
Ababa ten years later, while Ethiopia opened its Embassy in Ankara
during the time of Emperor Haile Selassie. It was closed in 1976
during the military regime and Ethiopia reopened its diplomatic
mission in Ankara in 2006. It has subsequently appointed a number of
Honorary Consuls General in various parts of Turkey. Relations
between Ethiopia and Turkey can be described as excellent and
rapidly growing. This is particularly the case over the last five
years which have included several high level visits including two
visits by the Prime Minister of Turkey to Ethiopia and by Prime
Minister Meles to Turkey in 2007. Joint commission meetings started
in 2000 and have been held on five occasions.
The visit of this high level delegation this week has great
significance for Ethiopia and its development aspirations. It has
come just as the country has started implementation of its new
Growth and Transformation Plan, a plan that demands substantial
foreign direct investment and the transfer of appropriate technology
from partner countries, including Turkey. There is no doubt Turkish
investors offer real possibilities of contributing significantly to
Ethiopia’s planned yearly export target (of US$10 billion) by the
end of the plan period in 2015.
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Al Ahram
hysteria
It
hasn’t been uncommon for articles to appear in the Egyptian press
attacking Ethiopia over the issue of the Nile, but a recent article
in Arabic in Al Ahram displays what can only be called an
extraordinary level of hysteria. The article quotes an anonymous
‘Official responsible for Nile issues’, to suggest Egypt has to take
a series of ‘strategic political and economic measures’ before
‘embarking on military measures’ against ‘some upper basin
countries.’ These include preposterous suggestions that Egypt should
leverage its status as a country contributing 15 per cent of the
African Union’s budget to pressure the AU to relocate from Addis
Ababa. Failing that there is the equally bizarre suggestion it
should try to persuade Arab members of the AU to leave the
organization. It should also lobby against companies involved in
hydro-electric dam construction projects in Ethiopia; as well as to
prevent the passage through the Suez Canal of building materials and
equipment to Ethiopia. These are suggested as possible options
before resorting to military action!
All these ‘strategic measures’ are directed against Ethiopia. Egypt
believes Ethiopia to be the main force behind the CFA though the
fact of the matter is that the CFA is the result of the collective
action of all nine riparian countries. This is a regrettably typical
example of the view some Egyptian politicians have towards
Sub-Saharan Africa, believing for example that countries cannot act
on the basis of their own interest. The comment suggests there still
is a strong feeling among some Egyptian officials that the way to
maintain their monopoly over Nile waters is to use underhand tactics
rather than engage positively and constructively on the basis of
mutual interest which the CFA will do. Perhaps most importantly,
what the comment in Al Ahram demonstrates is the arrogance of the
view that Egypt can stop countries like Ethiopia from developing its
resources to feed its people. This may have been the case years ago
when Egypt was able to flex its muscles to stop others from using
their own resources. It is no longer the case.
A Week in the Horn certainly hopes that this comment does not
represent the official position of the Egyptian government despite
the semi-official position of the newspaper itself. It isn’t
entirely clear if any such official did say whatever was attributed
to him/her in earnest. The government of Ethiopia knows there are
some in the Egyptian bureaucracy who have a penchant for
sabre-rattling even when this is inadvisable or impractical. There
are many others who rightly believe in dialogue and constructive
engagement. However, whether in earnest or in jest, the appearance
of such a comment in a newspaper not known for jokes does suggest
there are those who still have the illusion that they can turn the
clock back on the development of countries like Ethiopia. The
unrealistic suggestions make it clear some have yet to learn to live
with changing realities in the region.
We believe that Ethiopia and Egypt have many things in common and
legitimate interests in deepening their relations. The Nile itself
should be the basis for the establishment of very strong and
mutually beneficial relations. There are other areas including
trade, investment and development that both countries could and
should capitalize on in furtherance of their national interests. It
is in this light that the government of Ethiopia has consistently
urged Egypt and Sudan to join the CFA. Ethiopia is not interested in
harming Egypt in any way, nor are the other upper riparian countries
all of which still expect Egypt and Sudan to be part of the process.
This position is of course a matter of principle, it was not a cowed
response to sabre-rattling by ill-advised, anonymous Egyptian
officials. Ethiopia can no longer be arm-twisted into submission. As
Prime Minister Meles remarked recently: “Ethiopia has changed, and
changed forever.”
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IGAD’s new directors
take up their posts
IGAD’s new directors for its departments of Peace and Security,
Administration and Finance, and Agriculture and Economic Affairs
took up their posts at the beginning of this month, on March 1st.
This week, IGAD’s Executive Secretary, Engineer Maalim introduced
the new appointees to Ethiopia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs,
Ambassador Berhane Gebrechristos, and to the IGAD Partners’ Forum.
Ethiopia is the current chair of IGAD.
The new appointments have been made at a time when IGAD is taking
issues of peace and security and regional integration very
seriously. The IGAD experts committee has already endorsed the
Minimum Integration Plan and the Peace and Security Strategy that
are shortly going to be submitted for consideration by the IGAD
Council. At the meeting with Ambassador Berhane, IGAD’s Executive
Secretary elaborated on the work of the secretariat to make the
organization more effective since he took office, including the
activities of the secretariat in creating structures within IGAD to
deal with livestock, one of the main contributions to regional
economies.
The State Minister welcomed the Executive Secretary and the new
Directors and expressed the readiness of the Ethiopian Government to
assist them in the discharge of their responsibilities. He
congratulated IGAD for its achievements in peace and security, in
particular in its role in the Somali peace process and the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement for the Sudan. He emphasized that IGAD
should not lose focus on its priorities and on its own agenda to
make the commitment of member states much stronger. Ambassador
Berhane noted that the transformation of the economies of the region
had moved beyond what IGAD had previously envisaged and there was a
need for IGAD to adjust itself to the changes and to move forward
looking selectively at certain aspects of regional integration. He
underlined the huge infrastructural projects now underway that will
bring the regional states closer to each other. He cited the power
connections, the planned railway and road links, telecommunications
and other developments that will provide the basis for faster
integration in the region. This needs further harmonization of
regional policies, and IGAD should take the lead in this. He also
emphasized that IGAD should work to ensure food security at regional
level and address the issues of pastoralists within the existing
regional framework. Ambassador Berhane also underlined the
importance of IGAD playing a leading role in creating a minimum
platform for collaboration with the East African Community.
The IGAD Partners met the new directors at a meeting held at the
Italian Embassy where they were welcomed. The Partners Forum also
exchanged views on current developments in the region and heard a
brief report on the recent visit of the IGAD Partners’ Forum to
Hargeisa. Members exchanged views on how best the IPF could
strengthen its relations with Somaliland within the IGAD context. A
suggestion was made that the IPF should make a similar visit to
Puntland. The meeting welcomed the progress achieved in Somalia and
called on the humanitarian agencies to provide support to those
needing it through the corridors now available for the provision of
assistance.
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A
review of Peace Agreements in the Horn
A regional conference organized by the Inter-Africa Group to review
Peace Agreements in the Horn of Africa was held in Addis Ababa,
March 3rd and 4th. The meeting, which brought
together experts, academics, policy makers, representatives of the
diplomatic community and other stakeholders, looked critically at
the different peace initiatives and/or agreements to be found in the
Horn of Africa in order to draw relevant lessons for policy
considerations.
A number of papers ranging from appraisals of the emerging
literature on peace agreements and negotiations to case studies
drawn from the Horn of Africa Region (and covering Somalia,
Somaliland, Kenya, and the Sudan) were presented. These provided the
themes for discussion and highlighted a number of strengths and
weaknesses in the making and implementation of peace agreements in
the Horn. The need for a holistic and comprehensive approach to
peace processes, taking into consideration the relevant interests
and concerns of multiple actors and stakeholders, was emphasized. It
was noted that external involvement by the international community
or international organizations and agencies in peace processes might
be more successful if it took the form of providing support for
peace processes initiated and facilitated under the umbrella of a
regional organization. This would avoid any external imposition and
also foster local initiatives.
An excellent example of this was the case of the 2005 Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan where the involvement of regional
actors, including Ethiopia, under the auspices of the regional
organization, IGAD, played a key part in bringing the two parties to
negotiate their peace agreement successfully. The value of
negotiating entirely different subjects separately but incrementally
within the limits of an overarching framework was identified as an
important variable underlying the success of the CPA process. Others
included the distribution of negotiations over an adequate period of
time avoiding any suggestion of deadline diplomacy, an aspect which
also facilitated the creation of a holistic framework for the
agreement. In addition, the detailed stipulation of the
implementation process provided safeguards for the execution of the
agreement.
By contrast, a number of weaknesses in peace agreement processes
were related to lack of political accountability, manipulation of
ethnic grievances, institutionalization of corruption, inability to
address historical grievances, and an overriding focus on
power-sharing as opposed to negotiating peace deals to lead to a
sustainable peace and to stability. Other weaknesses of peace
agreements which were underlined during the conference included the
low level of international support and commitment to the
implementation of agreements or the holding of parties to account;
weak oversight and minimal support for modalities of verification;
lack of readiness to address the real issues underlying conflicts;
the frequent elite domination of the peace processes with limited
grassroots input and ownership; and the inability to
institutionalize effective structures for the transformation of the
post conflict environment.
Participants
ended their two days of extensive discussion advancing a number of
recommendations. These included the need to embed modalities of
implementation and verification in peace processes; nurturing
political good will and commitment to implement any processes;
encouraging an enhanced role for regional organizations like IGAD or
for the African Union in the brokering and implementation phases of
peace agreements; the imperative need to build a large constituency
in support of peace agreements in order to attain sustainability;
and the need to have
a credible and experienced pool of mediators available within the
IGAD region to provide high quality mediation when required.
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