• Voting in South Sudan’s referendum

• Al-Shabaab’s problems over the future of Colonel Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’

• The UN Secretary-General’s latest Report on Somalia

• Germany’s Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development in Ethiopia

• Diaspora Ethiopian-Somalis visit the Somali region, meet the Prime Minister

• Responsibility for a healthy market

• Core Principles of Ethiopia's Foreign Policy: Ethio-Irish relations

Al-Shabaab’s problems over the future of Colonel Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’

Sheikh Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’, head of the now defunct Hizbul Islam, handed himself and his militia over to Al-Shabaab last month, but, ironically, the collapse of Hizbul Islam has become a cause of further disputes within Al-Shabaab's leadership. Indeed, it appears the main reason for the replacement of Abdi Godane as Emir of Al-Shabaab by Ibrahim al-Afghani last month was disagreement over the future role of Colonel Hassan. The disagreement arose when the leadership considered whether Hassan Dahir Aweys and elements of Hizbul Islam should continue as an armed faction within Al-Shabaab or whether he and the group should be completely disarmed and retrained. It might be recalled that when Hassan Turki officially joined Al-Shabaab in Lower Juba in 2009 most of his militia refused to follow him, and Al-Shabaab insisted that any who did must be retrained. As a result he no longer has any independent militia forces of his own. 

As previously indicated in A Week in the Horn, the disputes within Al-Shabaab’s leadership have largely been between those who want all elements of the forces of Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’ to be completely disbanded and those who still consider him to be a leader with significant clan support and who should therefore be allowed to maintain his own militia. The latter group supporting a continued active role for Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’ include Sheikh Muktar Robow and Fuad Shongole, currently in charge of Al-Shabaab activities in Bay and Bakool, and Puntland respectively. They argue that allowing Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’ to keep control of some forces will help him mobilize a clan militia which could be helpful to Al-Shabaab in Galgudud region in central Somalia. Reports from ‘Eel Buur in Galgudud that Al-Shabaab is deploying large numbers of fighters in the area underlines the possibility that Al-Shabaab is preparing to support an attempt by Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’ to try and attack his home area of Dusa Mareb, now controlled by Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a, the ally of the TFG. Elders in ‘Eel Buur have criticized Al-Shabaab’s arrest of a leading businessman and of some elders in the town in the last week.

The other group within Al-Shabaab’s leadership includes Abdi Godane, replaced as Al-Shabaab’s Emir at the shura meeting on December 25^th by Ibrahim al-Afghani who has been an ally of Sheikh Muktar Robow. Abdi Godane sees Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’ as a ‘lame duck’,  with no longer any future as a significant political or religious player. However, the dispute has much wider ramifications. Abdi Godane has been the main proponent of incorporating foreign elements into Al-Shabaab. Among those who have been holding senior positions in Al-Shabaab have been Sheikh Mohamed Abu Faid, a Saudi Arabian, as financial manager; Abu Musa Mombasa (Pakistani) head of security and training; and Mahmoud Mujajir, from Sudan, responsible for the recruitment of suicide bombers. 

Sources following developments on the ground closely consider the disagreement as part of a larger dispute within Al-Shabaab. It certainly marks a division between the different ideological views over just how far Al-Shabaab should operate with a nationalistic or an international agenda, on how closely it should ally with al-Qaeda. This also relates to the inter-clan relationships of Al-Shabaab leaders, and to such factors as terrorist attacks outside Somalia or international relief efforts inside Somalia. Some of Al-Shabaab’s leadership continue to strongly support the banning of relief efforts by humanitarian agencies in areas they claim to control; others insist that the seriousness of the drought in southern areas means that such agencies should be allowed to return.

*****************

top

The UN Secretary-General’s latest Report on Somalia

UN Secretary-General Ban ki-Moon produced his latest four monthly report on Somalia on December 30^th 2010, covering the period from September to the end of the year. He identified security as the single most critical challenge facing the TFIs and again calls on the international community to provide urgent support to the TFG against “foreign fighters and other spoilers”. He urged member states to cooperate in the implementation of Resolution 1907 imposing sanctions on those who undermine peace efforts. The Secretary-General noted recent political developments including the appointment of the new Prime Minister and the Government’s draft road map for the management of the rest of the transitional period ending in August 2011. This included the establishment of oversight and accountability mechanisms for the TFG, an audit of the civil service, establishment of a committee of respected Somalis to advise on a post-transitional dispensation as part of the constitutional process, and the strengthening of security institutions. 

On security issues, the Secretary-General noted that Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a was still participating in the TFG, and that the TFG relied on this alliance for control in Hiiraan, Galgudud and Muduug regions. Overall, he regarded the security situation in southern and central Somalia as “fragile and unpredictable”. Elsewhere he welcomed developments in Somaliland and the United States announcement of a dual track approach involving the strengthening of ties with Somaliland and Puntland. He noted that the Security Council had adopted Resolution 1950 (2010) which renewed for another year the authorization to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia.  Following two good rainy seasons there had been a marked improvement in Somalia’s humanitarian situation but current drought threatened this as did the upsurge in conflict from August. There are still nearly 2 million people in need of assistance, and there are over 400,000 displaced people along the Afgoye corridor. The Secretary-General saw no improvement in the human rights situation in central and southern Somalia in this period and he noted a number of cases of violation of human rights by Al-Shabaab including extensive forced recruitment of children.

The Secretary-General noted the UN’s continued support for the efforts to produce a new constitution and to facilitate the process of consultation on the draft produced in July. These included a Joint Strategic Planning Workshop and a gender audit of the draft constitution. He underlined that the UN continued to expand its “footprint” in Mogadishu with 61 missions conducted by various UN organizations. UNPOS is in the process of establishing a forward liaison office in Mogadishu and is expected to set up facilities in Hargeisa and Garowe in the next few months. Following the review conducted by the Integrated Task Force in June, benchmarks for a possible transition from AMISOM to a UN peacekeeping operation have been revised. They are now: completion of training and equipping of a cohesive Somali security force capable of stabilizing Mogadishu initially; stabilization of Mogadishu; successful building of alliances by the TFG in Mogadishu and surrounding areas; consent of the major actors in Mogadishu and areas of south and central Somalia for a UN deployment; attainment of AMISOM’s full strength; and availability of sufficient troops. The Secretary-General referred to the AU Peace and Security Council endorsement of a new force strength of 20,000 for AMISOM, in two phases, of 4,000 more for Mogadishu initially and another 8,000 to provide for expansion outside Mogadishu. He noted the Security Council’s adoption of Resolution 1964 on December 22 which authorized deployment of AMISOM to September 2011 and requested AMISOM to increase its strength to 12,000. The UN remains unable to reimburse troop-contributing countries for equipment owing to donor caveats associated with contributions to the Trust Fund in support of AMISOM. The lack of predictable and sufficient funding for AMISOM continued to undermine its operational effectiveness. The Secretary-General itemized details of the UN activities in strengthening security institutions, and in developing a national security strategy, and UNPOS actions in assisting the development of the armed forces, the police and the justice sector.

The Secretary-General made it clear he remained “deeply concerned about the impact of the conflict on civilians” and called on “all parties to ensure their protection [reminding] them of their responsibility to protect.” He added “I condemn the launching of attacks by extremists from populated areas and demand an end to these attacks..…I also call on all parties to respect humanitarian principles and allow the delivery of assistance to populations most in need. I call on the donor community to continue their critical support to the people of Somalia.”  

 *****************

top

Germany’s Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development in Ethiopia

A high level German delegation led by the Federal Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development, Mr. Dirk Niebel, made an official visit to Ethiopia from 11^th to 14^th January. The 40 strong delegation was largely composed of high level government officials, parliamentarians and businessmen but also included a group of journalists. The visit was designed so the Minister would be able to make a full assessment of the impact of German economic support for the overall economic, social and political transformation taking place in Ethiopia. He toured a number of development projects being implemented in different parts of the country with German financial assistance. The Minister also held bilateral discussions on the future of Germany-Ethiopia cooperation and partnership with Prime Minister Meles as well as the Speaker of the House of People’s Representatives, Abadula Gemeda, Finance Minister, Sufian Ahmed and Civil Service Minister, Junedin Sado. The bilateral meetings dwelt at length on ways and means of consolidating current Ethio-German relations. While expressing deep gratitude and appreciation to Germany's development partnership, which is seen as exemplary, the Ethiopian side called on Germany to strengthen its development assistance, especially in view of the tremendous development tasks envisioned in the new Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP).

During his visit, Minister Niebel visited German supported projects in Tigray, Dire Dawa and Harar and held discussions with both the President of the Tigray Regional State and the Mayor of Dire Dawa. Germany has committed nearly 100 million Euros for development support over the last three years. Its cooperation in the three priority areas of engineering capacity building, urban governance and decentralization, and sustainable land management has been closely aligned with the government’s priorities. The Engineering Capacity Building Program is a ten year program launched in 2005 and has so far involved the expenditure of over 80 million Euros in matching contributions from the German and Ethiopian governments. It is aimed at creating new jobs, improving skills, modernizing the private sector and making Ethiopian products more competitive.

Following his discussions and what he described as successful visits to project sites, the Minister expressed his own satisfaction and that of his government over the current state of Ethio-Germany’s economic partnership. He made it clear there would be further German commitments to assist Ethiopia’s economic development in the future, in addition to the sum of 115 million Euros earmarked for Ethiopia under the 2008-2011 development program.

*****************

top

Diaspora Ethiopian-Somalis visit the Somali region, meet the Prime Minister

A group of sixty-five people from the Diaspora, normally residing in the Middle East, Europe and North America, have been visiting the Somali Regional State and other parts of the country. They have also had a meeting with Prime Minister Meles as well as other officials in the Somali Regional State and elsewhere. Their visit which is still in progress follows visits by delegations from the Somali region to North America and other areas. Delegations of Somali elders have also made visits to the USA, Denmark and Sweden and held fruitful discussions with the members of the Diaspora.  Various discussion forums have been arranged by federal and regional officials to inform and introduce the Diaspora to development activities going on at local and national level and give them first hand information. These forums have played an important role in correcting the false information that opposition forces have tried to disseminate about regional structures and efforts to bring about balanced growth and enable people to participate in development activities in their respective regions. Many members of the Diaspora are far from first-hand sources of information. Many media outlets appear to be run by opposition forces which make deliberate efforts to deliver destructive messages. Now the government is making specific efforts to strengthen the activities of Ethiopian embassies abroad to provide accurate information on developments in the country for the Diaspora community. 

Indeed, the Federal government has taken a number of initiatives to involve and encourage the Ethiopian Diaspora in activities in their regions of origin, also designing ways to enable them to benefit in the process including regarding foreign citizens of Ethiopian origin as domestic investors. These policy measures, including Proclamation No. 270/2002, are worth mentioning. As a result, the Diaspora community is already contributing in many ways to assist in the efforts to eradicate poverty and improve living conditions. These include the transfer of knowledge and technology, material and financial assistance, investment and other activities.  

During their visit the delegation were most impressed by the developments taking place in the Somali Regional State. As they wrote to the Prime Minister they deeply   appreciated the infrastructural development activities being undertaken in the Somali Regional State, including the asphalting of roads, the extension of electricity supplies, improved communication facilities, the building of an international airport and the provision of university education. They were particularly appreciative of the government’s commitment to alleviation of living conditions for the people of the Somali region, and in Ethiopia as a whole. The delegation expressed the strong support of the Diaspora community for the courageous decision of the federal and regional governments in concluding agreements with the UWSLF and a faction of the ONLF to enhance stability in the region. It was the first time that the government of the Somali Regional State had made a concerted effort to tap into the potential role of Diaspora communities. It was welcomed. The delegation noted: "In the past three weeks, we have witnessed immense development activities in all the areas we have visited, particularly the zones of Jijiga, Dhagaxbuur, Godey and Kabridahar. The administration of the Somali Regional State has embarked on courageous and well-executed security initiatives that have brought about enormous improvements in terms of sustainable security in the region and in expediting federal-and-regional sponsored development ventures.” 

The delegation took the opportunity to make some suggestions in their letter: "We would like to request the Federal Government to consolidate the implementation of the socio-economic infrastructure projects and to assign Somali speaking diplomats and staff in countries where a large number of Ethiopian Somali Diaspora communities reside such as Minnesota/Minneapolis, San Diego, Seattle, Jeddah, UAE, Kenya, South Africa, Scandinavia, Australia and Canada” Other suggestions included the construction of a tarmac airport at Kabridahar;  the extension of airtime for ETV’s  Somali program; a stop to internal bickering among Somali Regional State officials and an end to the frequent changes of regional president which would encourage development and sustain existing stability. 

In conclusion, the delegation expressed their commitment to Ethiopian unity and to Ethiopia’s constitution, to participation on development programs, and their determination to stand against any group or state trying to undermine development efforts, especially Eritrea or “its hired mercenaries”. In his meeting with the delegation, Prime Minister Meles thanked the group for the initiative they had taken to see the situation for themselves. He encouraged them to strengthen their cooperation with the Somali Regional Development Association and to invest in the region either as a group or individually, to help improve peoples’ livelihood and make peace sustainable. He emphasized the role that members of the Diaspora could play to support peace, democracy and development and eradicate poverty and backwardness.  The participation of the Diaspora was in fact vital for the efforts to put Ethiopia into the list of middle income countries in the coming two decades.

                                                                                                *****************

top

Responsibility for a healthy market

 Last week, Prime Minister Meles and other senior government officials held a meeting with hundreds of the business community. The meeting was to discuss implementation of newly launched trade regulations and to introduce a commodities price index. The government believes that recent commodity price rises have not been related to any economic factors, and that there is no economic explanation for these price increases. It believes the increases were mainly the result of a lack of transparency in business activities, unscrupulous speculators, an inefficient regulatory system and a distorted picture of the free market system held by some in the business community. 

The government, therefore, took the step of introducing regulations to control the basic consumer products traded across the nation. These short term measures were in effect taken to curb the increasing inflation that the nation has been experiencing recently in the price of food and other basic commodities. The increases have in effect been the result of man-made activity and have had no economic justification.  

Prosperity and rapid growth have long been the priorities on the agenda of the government in order to reduce poverty and improve people’s livelihood. This is why the government has put in place a whole series of different development plans and strategies aimed at realizing the country’s desired development goals. Indeed, the government has clearly demonstrated its commitment to transforming the economy and achieving its development objectives through creating an enabling institutional environment. Its reform programs have been largely aimed at creating a legal, institutional and conducive policy environment to enhance private sector development in the economy.  

This is why the government has introduced a free market economy over the last twenty years, releasing the private sector from the constraints of the previous military regime, and providing considerable contributions to the country’s development. These policy measures, augmented by various additional monetary and fiscal policies, have produced encouraging dividends: the national economy has, of course, registered double digit growth rates over some seven years. Equally, registering rapid economic growth doesn’t come about without challenge. Ethiopia has, of course, been affected by inflationary pressures. As prices of basic food items and other commodities have been steadily increasing without any sign of abatement, consumers have become alarmed. The price rises have been putting enormous pressure on communities, especially on the poor and those with fixed or minimal sources of income. Consumers have been expressing concern over soaring prices; the government has now taken measures to stabilize prices of basic food items and commodities in the market.  

The government has now taken the necessary steps to fix the prices of a number of essential commodities to contain inflation. It believes that the continuation of an unregulated free market will cause public suffering, and be an obstacle to the achievement of the new five year national Growth and Transformation Plan, intended to bring about radical change in improving socio-economic developments and eradicating poverty. Equally, the government is also aware that it is neither possible nor desirable to ensure development or conduct economic diplomacy in an effective manner without the active participation of the private sector. This does after all represent a major segment of the economy. In the context of the growing importance of trade as an engine of economic growth in particular, the promotion of private sector interests are vital to the promotion of the national interest. This is why the government held its consultative meeting with the business community, aiming to create a common understanding of the problems, and to encourage the establishment of a healthy trade and free market system.  

The government fully recognizes the important role the business community can play in the country’s development programs. It has given a lot of consideration to the concerns of the private sector in its various policy measures and during the meetings that have taken place with higher government officials. Now it is time for the business community, for importers, wholesalers, distributors and retailers, to show their sense of duty and their responsibility, to respond positively to the government’s call, and join hands to implement a healthy, fair and balanced market system throughout the country.

                                                                                                *****************

top

Core Principles of Ethiopia's Foreign Policy: Ethio-Irish relations

Ethiopian-Ireland relations are based on wide ranging issues of mutual interest. The most visible people-to-people interactions were during the height of the 1984 famine in which so many Ethiopians died and which caused the country so many problems. Ireland's response to that catastrophe still remains a vivid and warming memory in the hearts of Ethiopians. Most notable among the humanitarian efforts of the Irish people was, of course, the work of the Irish rock star, Sir Bob Geldof, whose initiative in organizing the Band Aid program mobilized the international community to provide the support that enabled the survival of millions of Ethiopians affected by the calamity. The passionate and full-hearted response of the Irish people and their government to that humanitarian crisis has remained a linchpin underlying current bilateral cooperation as well as people-to-people relations. Ireland, indeed, has always offered an impressive example of a principled position on the provision of development support.  

Diplomatically, Ethiopia and Ireland have only a short history, dating back to 1994 when Ireland opened its Embassy in Addis Ababa, but relations have been exemplary and excellent. Bilateral relations have been cemented by the high level visits of Prime Minister Meles to Ireland in 2002 and of Irish Foreign Minister, Michael Martin, to Ethiopia last year. Ethiopia's decision to open its Embassy in Dublin in 2003 was another  important milestone in further strengthening diplomatic relations, as was the earlier Irish decision to upgrade its diplomatic representation to ambassadorial level in Addis Ababa.  

The Irish government has committed a significant amount of resources to support the development efforts of Ethiopia, mainly through grants and aid programs. The major areas of focus include agriculture and food security, infrastructural development, health, and education, capacity building and governance. Overall, in terms of economic cooperation, Irish development cooperation can be characterized as being effective and pro-poor.  

On bilateral trade, the overall statistics show a marked growth pattern after 2004 with both imports and exports continuing to rise. The balance is firmly in Ireland’s favor. In 2008, Ethiopia's exports to Ireland amounted to 4.5 million Birr; imports stood at 140 million Birr worth of goods. There is no doubt that a lot needs to be done to promote Ethiopia's exports in Ireland in order to try to narrow this negative trade balance. In terms of investment as well, much could be done. Ethiopia offers significant investment opportunities for Irish businesses but there are no more than fifteen Irish companies involved in Ethiopia and their total investment only amounts to some 262 million Birr. Ethiopia would be delighted to see more investment from Ireland.  

Ethiopia attaches great importance to its relationship with the whole of Europe, and to the mutually beneficial cooperation it has with the countries that make up the European Union. Both for this, and for bilateral reasons, it would like to strengthen further its relations with Ireland. Given Ethiopia’s current emphasis on economic diplomacy and on the new five year Growth and Development Plan, it will concentrate on expanding economic cooperation with Ireland in the coming years. The focus will be on encouragement of Irish Foreign Direct Investment and on the development of trade and tourism.

*****************

top