The current civil uproar against a 60 year military dictatorship disguised in civilian uniform in Egypt is coming to an end. While that may be what the Egyptians want the west and the rest of the world is not sure about the change coming. The US is deeply involved to influence the 
outcome of the current crisis to its advantage. Similarly other Arab countries are trying to learn from how Egypt handles itself. Egypt and Ethiopia has a long relationship that includes religion and the Nile River. Egyptian government as well as experts have been fuming about the latest Nile Treaty Ethiopia is championing. The Ethiopian government had openly complained about Egypt’s role in destabilizing Ethiopia. Some say Ethiopia is shielded by God’s hand thus why her enemies from far and near have not been able to put her down over the years, but, that aside what do you think a regime change in Egypt would mean to the Nile Treaty and politics? Would a new government deal with the Nile issue in earnest or will it continue with business as usual? Have your say!
Hi AIGA! It is very important to our country and the Nile treaty if Mubarek is out ! Because atleast the Egypcian govrnment doesn’t get the so called 1.3 b dollar for the military armaments and helping for the distebilization of ethiopia!! If muslim extrimists come they are going to harm themselfs and we Ethiopians proceed with our devpt.!!
The ordinary,..[yetekliye lij]
You’re right, only stronger Ethiopia matters.nothing else.
Btw, I’m yetekleye lij too. From kebele 19. I was 15,16 years old on the time of EPRP. I you are in that range, we might know each other.
The current situation indicates that the previous scenarios with west (Israel) may not continue same manners; Iran is trying to hijack the uprising to meet its ambitious self interests, let’s see the results in days.
This question is an important one, which has been lingering in my mind since the Egyptians started to revolt against Mubarak. My one cent on this issue is that it depends who will take power after the current regime is gone. If intellectuals take power they may be willing to negotiate, but if the hard liners and the military have the influence, then it will be business as usual for them. Another thing is the public has been brain washed that the Nile is a gift from God to Egypt and nothing else. So regardless what the outcome in Egypt is the lower riparian states have to press hard for their fair share of the resources, only united front form those states can bring about change.
The nile issue is in our hand it is out of the uper nile country after 9-11
So I think it is in our hand
I think the State Dept is responsible for this chaos by having organized a so called youth task force of Egyptian activists to undermine the Mubarak regime according to published reports. If that is the case, I am sure there were Ethiopians who were invited to the same office under disguise and buyer be ware. No Revolution has yet to bring freedom and prosperity to any country save the American revolution and those like it which were more wars of independence and meant to topple foreign forces. I am afraid the situation in Egypt will be out of control the same way the Iranian revolution was hijacked by extremists. If the revolutions of the past were managed by, more or less matured individuals,led to chaos of biblical proportion those spearheaded by ‘ social networks’ like twitter and Facebook will lead to even more chaos at the outset and later manipulated by sharks luring in the shadow. This is what is happening in Egypt, the religious fanatics are finally coming from behind the scene to take over the cyber revolutionaries. It will be anarchy in Egypt for sometime to come. As much as i think Mr Mubarak was a known enemy of Ethiopia, I will choose him over who ever will ascend to power in Egypt. At minimum, we knew what we were dealing with. Now these Berdei, a weak individual who is no match for Mubarak is surfacing as the leader of the pack, it is anyone’s guess what awaits us down the road. The only good outcome is that Afewerki wont be getting any funding anytime soon.
This sort of revolutions which are the result of the massive Wikleak are just the beginning and pose clear and imminent danger to all Nations whether ruled by dictators or not. The anarchists led by Assange have the web to manipulate many more masses every where in the World. Unless all interested govts set up emergency summit to counter this cyber and sms Bolivars, the world will be in turmoil every time the price of bread rises by pennies. Neither is the wealthy western Nations immune to this current conundrum as events in France ( where retirement age was raised by 2 years) or UK ( where tuttion was raised ) so those in the West should also take their lesson and not try to export democracy as was done by some using so called ‘ social networks’. At the height of the massive demonstration in France there were twice or three times as many people protesting against Sarkozi than in Cairo and all Egyptian cities combined. the difference is the French govt has financial strength and the silent majority it can count on. Mubarak might have the silent majority as most Egyptians are problably glued to tv and not at Tahriri Square, but he is bound to lose the battle thanks to Al Jazera and all sort of activists in the Cyber World high on drugs or adrenaline.
Most of all, the latest craze about egypt with around the clock coverage of events there, tells me that Egypt is an extremely important country for the United States. A commentator on NPR, Yesterday, actually stated that its is a key strategic ally of the US . It is the only country which signed a treaty with Israel and whose influence in the Arab World is enormous. It controls one of the most vital thorughfares of the World ( Suez Canal) etc. I was dumbfounded to find out all the news be it on the local news stations , conservative talks shows or NPR was Egypt and mostly Egypt. No wonder we couldn’t get any financing for our dams!
Either way, there are numerous variants of outcome out of this mess. Neither will be better than when we had to deal with Mubarak. the worst will be if the brotherhood takes over. Any prolonged mass unrest of Egypt wont be in Ethiopia’s interest for we are joined at the hip. No religious strife or somalization will benefit us whatsoever. Nor can Ethiopia benefit from the export of cyber revolution in Sudan or other countries in the Region. We have to follow the trend carefully and put our bets carefully. . Above all, we have to let it be known in some quarters of the West no interference in our internal affairs by recruiting the young and the restless can be tolerated as the consequence can be steep and many times painful. The youth which has been polluted by Holywood and MTV shouldn’t be the guardian of any revolt, jasmine, Nile or otherwise.
Weather the replacment of Mubarek will bring a btter situation for the Nile issue is only a question to be determined who will be coming to the scene. If the Muslim Brotherhood came to power that will be a much diffcult group to accept a civilised and democratic dialgue with Ethiopia and the rest of the world. If other more moderate and progressive forces have a chance to come to replace Mubarek, there may be a hope. In everey case, however since Nile is a national issue for egypt, it will always be a diffcult matter and Ethiopia must be determined to assert its interest in whatever means possible.
But I admire Egypt’s so far non-brutal appraoch to the demonestrators!
Love Ethiopia
Tiz
The “Muslim Brotherhood” groups are the most Islamic Fundamentalist in Egypt. It is believed that they are the strongest group in Egypt today. They are desperateley fighting to hold power in their control. The Muslim Brotherhood are very bad group because they are anti-democracy such as the west and the USA. After all these groups had assasinated the former President Anwar Sadat of Egypt in the past. Thus, if they hold power, they will likeley attack Israel in the future. The Muslim Brotherhood are also part and parcel of the Hamas (HiF\zbolah Groups) in the Middle East. From these perspectives, the government change by the Muslim Brotherhood will not be a good sign to the world at large and Ethiopia in particular.
The government change in Egypt will also deterorate the Nile Issue with Ethiopia. Personally, i beleive that President Hosni Mubarack government is better by far from the Muslim Brotherhood.
Buba,
I have got another name for you, my friend: DUBA. When we talk of a very critical issue for our country and people, you play hide and seek here. Do not drift of the topic.
the revolt in Egypt and Tunisia is an indication of how power mongers are African leaders. It is shame on them to sit on the saddle of power for more than three decades. What is this? it is insane by any standard.
what I appreciate in the uprising Egyp:
-the response of the military, no use of force against the people
-the peaceful manner of the demonstration
what I hate in uprising in Egypt:
-the airforce show over the sky against its own people (cowardice)
-the looting of shops (which negatively aafcets the cause of the revolt)
-the naked interference of US in the internal matters of Egypt
effect of the revolt on Nile basin countries and esp.Ethiopia:
-our position on the nile is determined not by the type of government in Egypt or sudan, it is rather by our ability to defend our interest (Unity, development and democracy matters).
-whoever comes to power will not compromise on issues like Nile, it is wrongy deep-rooted in the minds of the people that Nile belongs to Egypt. This mentality can be changed when the reality in Ethiopia has changed. Even if the do not like to compromise with us, we have to make sure that they cannot dictate us (by any means including defense)
-whoever takes power cannot directly affect us without proxies (Eritrean dictator, al shabab, sudan etc.). How come that we cannot block such doors to Egyp. these neighbors are closer to us than to Egypt. By any means, means by ANY means. Do we have this means? that is the question we have to answer postively before we work on assumption we cannot control.
-we nned to be careful and learn from these upraising that if people are disperate and have enough of tyranny, they can change a government. So governmnets should change in due time and with respect rather than wait until the last minute only to be humiliated or hung.
So the evnt unfolding in the Arab world should not be seen affacting only the nile issue, it affcts also th democracy issue, the term of office of a head of governmnet issue, the poverty issue, the neutrality of the military issue, the unity issue. Many issues can be lesson in connection to the recent uprising in Egypt.
Whoever come to power can only be limited by the power developing in the reparian states and esp.Ethiopia when it comes to Nile issue.
In this revolt, I have to learn how much Africa is being manipulated by the West, this is worst when it comes to the black africans. Sorryyyyyyyyy!!
I regularly visit aiga for news related to ethiopia and the events taking place in egypt is the single most importatant news in world now and is widely reported by almost all media outlets except aiga. i can not understand why you failed to provide the news to your readers. without informing the situation in egypt, you are asking your reader to discuss how this may affect the Nile river treaty.
having said that , i do not think egypt policy in regard to the nile will change by much regardless who controlls state power. even if mubark is removed from office, he will be replaced by politicians who are indoctrinated by the old policy. it will take a new generation of egyptians that can see the reality on the groud and courageous enough to make change of attitude and recognize that nile is shared resource that has to be shared by all stakeholders equally. in the mean time ethiopia has to continue to utilize the nile and other rivers in a maner that will not affect egypt, sudan, kenya and somalia
In the name of democracy the muslim brotherhood will come to power now or later using democracy as a ladder…In order to control Muslim fanatics from taking power there must be a’TURKISH’ style of government ‘The guarantors of Constitution’Three top Generals’ to oversee and act that the Constitution is adhered to its entirety by any sitting government or party.The use of
religious propaganda must be absolutely “VERBOTTEN” forbidden,then is only Democracy possible in a muslim country.Yes you may say how about Banglade-
sh, Pakistan or Indoneshia,but with exeedingly high cost defending democracy.
Those southeast Asians are also not Arabs,They have a different culture.
“THE QUESTION OF THE NILE”
I do not believe Ethiopia should be a party to any NILE river treaty at all!!! You do not negotiate on what is yours.Not even the FOOL do that!!! Ethiopia should mind only of its development period, the more you develope the more water you will need the more population you will have the more water you will require In short water is life without water the is only a desert and the is no Life in a desert!!!Take the example of two countries.Turky and Esrael, Turky
use the water ephrates for errigation and and all other things needed and the
rest passes to Iraq and syria,do you think there is any’Ephratis Treaty’ thre is none period!!!Esrael owns 80% of the underground water in the west bank,
how and why? Esrael is powerfull and the palestinians have no yet a national entity or a country,so Esrael might in the future also own the rest of 20% of the westbank water.Lets now replace or put Egypt in the land of Ethiopians and Ethiopians in the land of Egytians hypotheticaly they own the nile river do you think Egytian who now owns the river nile will let the river flow Idly do not
kid your self,they will sell every drop of the water to the desert kingdom of
Saudi Arabia or the highest bidder.In short if you are strong no body mess with you if you are weak every body mess with you Lets be strong by working hard and help our nation from the yoke of poverty.
The uprising in Egypt is designed and sponsored by irresponsible countries from the West who are trying to export their ‘democracy’ to developing and under developed countris of the third world. This was tried in Iran but hyjacked by extremist Ayatollahs. The West is paying a dear price now. Egypt will follow suit and the region will be in turmoil. The Islamist extremes are unfolding day by day in Egypt. These elements are the most dangerous to the people of Egypt and the rest of the world. Ethiopia and Israel are the immediate victims of this new situation.
News is coming from the Middle East that petrodollar is gushing to save Mubarek. And on the other hand, the extrimists are getting financial and other support from countries which oppose the meddling of the US in Egypt.The West is in dilema now on what to do. Save Mubarek so that the fearful Islamists are controlled or do away with Mubarek and play a game of dirty politics. The sad thing is that the people of Egypt will suffer when the elephants fight.
As to the issue ot the Nile, who ever comes to power in Egypt will take Nile as a political card to keep safe its power. It will definitely depend on who plays the card the best. This in turn will creat an alarming situation to the upper riparian countris and specially to Ethiopia – ethiopia contributes 85% of the water Nile. Mubarek and his predicesors have been using the Nile card for internal political consumptions. But, in my opinion, Mubarek is better than any incoming power in Egypt. Peopls of the third world have learn lesson from that of Egypt.
I raise two points here. First: surely, Egypt is heading well into the list of failed states, whether Mubarek survives or not. Dramatically, the Egyptian crowd has opened Pandora’s Box in the name of “change”. In reality this ‘change’ best exemplifies how western states and their agencies are doing new experiments to ‘democratize the middle east’ or ‘the Arab world’ using the grievances of ‘the street’ or the mob. As the Tunisian and Egyptian litmus-paper quickly proved, mob is effective only in disabling or chasing out dictators, but it won’t democratize or stabilize a nation. Instead, the Egyptian turmoil has witnessed that mob has created a new failed state in the Nile Delta which is ungoverned by any group: be it by dying dictator, by its security forces, by its army or by the mob itself. Even the western sponsors of the mob stand confused and frightened to watch the country descending fast into anarchic and uncertain future. Now no one controls Egypt except sensational journalists of the international media! A functioning state of Egypt is gone and its quick comeback is unlikely.
Second: Anarchic Egypt cannot manage itself let alone the intricate issue of the Nile. Failed states only make good news stories for lazy journalists of the west. What the upper riparian states of the Nile should do is first to ensure their internal stability. Above all, they have to be ready to listen to the grievances of their poorer people lest their disgruntlement gives the west the raw material for its unrelenting agenda of multiplying failed states. In this regard, the recent price regulation and salary increment measures taken by the government of FDRE are wise steps, thus, they are highly commendable. However, more needs to be done in the realm of good governance which runs seriously short in Ethiopian bureaucracy. I think such institutional responsiveness is the best approach to create both democratic and stable nation. And of course, a democratic and stable nation in upper Nile basin is destined to control the course of the river. But a western manipulated street riot leads to nowhere as anarchic Egypt has shown us so illuminatingly. Gullible funs of ‘the Arab streets’ should also note that irrespective of justness in their grievances, angry mobs of Arab cities have proved nice only in putting their nations in the camp of failed states as designed by the west. As for Egypt, the unusual amalgamation of actors involving the obstinacy of its aging dictator, the furry of its urbanite mob and the covert manipulations of the west have all taken it into undemocratic and anarchic path(oddly enough all did so in the name of democracy and freedom). The result is a dysfunctional and stateless Egypt with all the biblical curses has come to the fore. At list there is no cure for this Pharaohnic curse in the near future. Therefore, the issue of the Nile should be revised by the upper riparian states.
As the situation in Egypt unfolding, it is getting clearer that The West was the major factor sitting at the driver seat stirring wheels of the chaos.
As for Nile issue it would be hard to think that Egypt’s next regime will bring a sincere agenda to the table as anything and everything is up for grab in Egypt now and in the future. The next Egypt’s regime be it with Extreme Islam or the backing of the west, it will seek influential backing from whoever is its next ally when it comes to the Nile issue.
Even if the west manages to plant their stooges in Egypt in the next election they would not hesitate to please Egypt to show their stand with the next regime at the expense of Ethiopians.
The Nile is for sure now a bargaining chip to please or hurt Egypt be it by the west or the feared Extreme Islamists…most likely by the West.
Mubarak just announced that he will stay in power till September and for sure he will have something to stiff the west with and Nile can serve as a big bargaining chip for any desire outcome of the West’s interest.
Nile isn’t Egypt’s issue anymore, the west will manuplate this issue as they have screwed up big time thinking Mubarak will fled the country the way the Tunisian dude did.
GOE has made it clear that it is willing to deal with Egypt in a fair deal manner, but lets keep in mind Africa’s history is painted with regretable deals and treaties which was thought fair at the time of the agreements.
I hope that The Ethiopian people and the GOE in general continuosly be aware and alert and extra careful when it comes to any Nile treaty with Egypt.
Desperate situation….Desperate measure.
As the West’s interest shift every second these days i doubt if we even rely on the current treaty that is signed. We should strengthen ourselves in every corner without beating the war drum unnecessarily and work hard to utilize the Nile without anyone intermingling in our natural right.
We all know that Nile will be a major factor how Ethiopia’s future is shaped as it has our past.
Let not Nile be the misrey of our future generations.
how do you see this?
“Strategic ramifications of the Egyptian crisis”
Disruption of Nile waters negotiations and matters relating: Egypt’s support for the emerging independence of South Sudan was based on that new state s control over a considerable stretch of the White Nile, at a time when Egypt has been attempting to dominate new treaty discussions regarding Nile (White and Blue Nile) water usage and riparian rights. Already, Egyptian ability to negotiate with the Nile River states has entered an hiatus, and unless the Egyptian Government is able to re-form quickly around a strong, regionally-focused model, Egypt will have lost all momentum on securing what it feels is its dominance over Nile water controls. In the short term, the Egyptian situation could provide tremors into northern and South Sudan, and in South Sudan this will mean that the U.S., in particular, could be asked to step up support activities to that country’s independence transition.
Such a sudden loss of Egypt’s Nile position will radically affect its long-standing proxy war to keep Ethiopia which controls the headwaters and flow of the Blue Nile, the Nile’s biggest volume input landlocked and strategically impotent. This means that Egypt’s ability to block African Union (AU) and Arab League denial of sovereignty recognition of the Republic of Somaliland will decline or disappear for the time being. Already Egypt’s influence enabled an Islamist takeover of Somaliland, possibly moving that state toward re-integration with the anomic Somalia state. Equally importantly, the interregnum in Egypt will mean a cessation of Cairo’s support for Eritrea and the proxy war which Eritrea facilitates but which others, particularly Egypt, pay against Ethiopia through the arming, logistics, training, etc., of anti-Ethiopian groups such as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), etc. Overall security of the Red Sea states and SLOC: Egypt has been vital to sustaining the tenuous viability of the state of Eritrea, because Cairo regarded Eritrean loyalty as a key means of sustaining Egyptian power projection into the Red Sea (and ensuring the security of the Red Sea/Suez Sea Lane of Communication), and to deny such access to Israel. Absent Egyptian support, the Eritrean Government of President Isayas Afewerke will begin to feel its isolation and economic deprivation, and may well, on its own, accelerate new pressures for conflict with Ethiopia to distract local populations from the growing deprivation in the country.
source:http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD that have already represented BARADEI in the upcoming dialogue have the slimmest chance to ascend to power. Therefore things will not get worse. The people who starved to a point where the spontaneous revolt will FINALLY settle for another Nationalist officer from the only respected institution namely the ARMY. To come out of the crisis Egypt will always strive to keep the status quo. BUSINESS AS USUAL SEEMS THE POSSIBLE SCENARIO,
ithink it don’t make different
We have to use nile it is ours
As same time iwish good for
Egyptian.and iadmire the people trying protect children olders property may god be with them.
Peace for the world.
It depends. The nile issue might be one of the reasons that is causing the unrest. Egypt is running out of options on how to secure the waters of the Nile. Still runnig around with arm-twisting tactics, in my opinion. If a loony group takes over, they might be quickly camping in the neighbourhood to cause some headache. It all depends on who emerges as the power behind to take over from Mubarak in the coming monthes/years.
Oh no nothing will change. Egypt will not do anything diffrent from the past as far as the Nile is concerned.
It won’t ask for anything less than it is getting from the Nile. It is wiser to expect that than othwerwise.
They do think they can flex their military might or use some regional attack dogs like Isaias Afewerki who has unashamedly pledge his loyalty to Egypt back in the Summer in Cairo.
The Upper riparian states have got to put their feet down and fight their corners and not allow themselves to be cowed by Egypt’s rogue attitude.
It’s a good issue to rise at this point of time. Egypt is going through tough time now. The country looks without a leader at this stage but think carefully or see through the military is playing and leading the game with the help from the west. They are lying low but control the pace. It’s a game as usual the military will come out as independent arbitor to the current situation because 1. it is well organized to keep law and order in the country 2 the west needs to secure suez canal 3 manage the geo-politics of the middle east.
No one wants to see a democratically elected president in Egypt ( mean the west and middle east) ‘ cause it will a devastating effect to Israel. Israel will be held accountable on many issues – human right violations, Palestinian issue and collective punshiment policy, it will open a pandora box to open to overthrow other dictators and monarchs in the area.
I am not afraid of the Muslim brotherhood coming to power in Egypt. They are already weak and marginalized in the society. If there is an open election people willnot vote for them. I think it was a protest vote for Mubark in the past. Also we shouldn’t forget if there are corrupt and undemocratic gov’ts they are the breeding ground for islamists.
Elbaradei willn’t lead as opostopn because he has a fundamental difference with the west’s policy in the region. He is weak, doesn’t have the support of the king makers of the country due to his opposition of the Iraq war and other middle east policies = you know what i mean.
The military will come out a leader and form a transitional government then elected a civilian
to the nile issue – no change but Ethiopia and the other countries gave to come out strong and determined to claim what’s theirs no matter what happens in Egypt. Egypt was and will be the pain of the ass to Africa and the Middle -east until it becomes democratized
First of it is proper and democratic to wish the Egyptian people full victory in their heroic struggle we are observing this last ten days. It is remarkable to see more than a million people in the street with our violence.I think Mr.Mubarak should respect his people and his country by meeting the demands in the street.As to the issue of regime change in Egypt regarding Nile Treaty ,we should expect much change.Because the unfairness of the Nile Issue rests not on Mubarak or the army but on the Egyptian Elites ,who have been thinking the strength of Ethiopia”Abysinia’ is a risk for them.The Egyptian Elite and State Machinery have been behind the hardships of the Ethiopian people.These people and State Machine have been behind all wars including the war we had with our brother Esayas Afeworki.The only guarantee for Ethiopia is its internal unity and strength .We have to stop the silly things we do such as the Diaspora who are even trying to split Churches.We should also work hard to bring nearer Eritrea,Djibouti and Somalia.Because , these people are one family but got dispersed by different historical faults and foreign visible and invisible interventions.To come to the issue of future Egypt,if true democratic government comes,it may shift to cooperation and direct the resources it used for destabilizing Ethiopia ,could be assigned for useful joint projects on the Blue Nile Basin.The sad thing we are learning is that the Money Egypt sends through brokers such as Esayas to destablise comes from the US Government,which is supposed to be a friend of the Ethiopian people.I think the US Government should be ethical and respect the expectation of friendly people and countries.The US Government should not forget that Ethiopia and Africa will also be powerful nations some day.You can only delay it but no power can stop it.Even if the countries around us cooperate things would immediately change. Mr.Esayas in his 2010 addressing to the Eritrea people said there was no reason to querel with Ethiopia but external forces created the enviornemnt .Even though ,we can not trust this fully, it has some truth.In the early years of the Eritrea existence ,the support for Eritrean military build up high.Finally, Let us wish the Egyptian people victory so that they could be a real asset of the Region unlike the last few centuries that their leaders have contributed to the fragmentation of the Horn of Africa.Has the money and resources spent to destabilize the Horn of Africa been spent to develop Egyptian economy, Egyptian companies would have been sites of job opportunities for the people of the Horn of Africa as the Industrialized Chines Cities are being job opportunites for many South East Asian countries.
Hi Aigaforum, it interesting subject and right on time, if the mubarak government servive or not mean nothing to Ethiopia , the problem laid up on the people of Egyptian, they should change their mind setting, always they think the distablize of Ethiopia is in their best interst, they should know we can share the blue nile with out hurting any one, like our prime said it, the sad thing is Eritreans stranded in the middle, they created like conduit to Arebs to splash misery to the horn, and now no where to go.
Here is a comment on the subject matter from……..
——————
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING
Strategic ramifications of the Egyptian crisis
By Gregory R. Copley, Editor, Global Information System
#
Disruption of Nile waters negotiations and matters relating: Egypt’s support for the emerging independence of South Sudan was based on that new state s control over a considerable stretch of the White Nile, at a time when Egypt has been attempting to dominate new treaty discussions regarding Nile (White and Blue Nile) water usage and riparian rights. Already, Egyptian ability to negotiate with the Nile River states has entered an hiatus, and unless the Egyptian Government is able to re-form quickly around a strong, regionally-focused model, Egypt will have lost all momentum on securing what it feels is its dominance over Nile water controls. In the short term, the Egyptian situation could provide tremors into northern and South Sudan, and in South Sudan this will mean that the U.S., in particular, could be asked to step up support activities to that country’s independence transition.
Such a sudden loss of Egypt’s Nile position will radically affect its long-standing proxy war to keep Ethiopia which controls the headwaters and flow of the Blue Nile, the Nile’s biggest volume input landlocked and strategically impotent. This means that Egypt’s ability to block African Union (AU) and Arab League denial of sovereignty recognition of the Republic of Somaliland will decline or disappear for the time being. Already Egypt’s influence enabled an Islamist takeover of Somaliland, possibly moving that state toward re-integration with the anomic Somalia state. Equally importantly, the interregnum in Egypt will mean a cessation of Cairo’s support for Eritrea and the proxy war which Eritrea facilitates but which others, particularly Egypt, pay against Ethiopia through the arming, logistics, training, etc., of anti-Ethiopian groups such as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), etc. Overall security of the Red Sea states and SLOC: Egypt has been vital to sustaining the tenuous viability of the state of Eritrea, because Cairo regarded Eritrean loyalty as a key means of sustaining Egyptian power projection into the Red Sea (and ensuring the security of the Red Sea/Suez Sea Lane of Communication), and to deny such access to Israel. Absent Egyptian support, the Eritrean Government of President Isayas Afewerke will begin to feel its isolation and economic deprivation, and may well, on its own, accelerate new pressures for conflict with Ethiopia to distract local populations from the growing deprivation in the country
Egypt’s view on Nile will not change regardless who comes to power. It is up to Ethiopia to enhance its know-how (technology), to divert the inflow of Nile waters and the fertile soil it carries to Egypt. Only then Ethiopia will have the upper hand in enforcing the desirable and reasonable negotiation.
It is very important to note where Egypt will be heading if and when regime change occurs. Muslim Brotherhood, a fundamentalist organization is the only recognized party in the Country. It is obvious that this organization is looking to gain power in Egypt as the protest continues.
We need to understand that this group will establish a state ruled by sharia or Islamic law. We also need to weigh this group’s support for the Mideast peace process and its policy towards Israel and the United States. This group does not exercise respect for human rights, especially for women.
We do not need to fool ourselves.Whoever comes to power,there would not be a change on the issue of naile because water is life.The only option is to use our water in a way that can not damage lower reparian states,and strength our muscle.
Nile will remain to be a strategic concern of all countries in the nile region. The best would be a fair treaty where everyone has a fair share. But one thing we have to be careful now is to stand by our current political leaders who are fighting to get the best out of Nile and tirelessly working to develop the Nile for the benefit of Ethiopia. There are some in and out of the country who aspire for the fall of our country. We have to be vigilant against those who are trying to destabilize our country by using the situation in Egypt as an opportunity to incite violence in Ethiopia.
Miruts
it is in the interest of ethiopia to have a stable egypt and sensible leadership there that can operate on win-win situation.whatever number of dams ethiopia builds on the nile would not reduce a drop of water from egypt . it is only in the mind of the egyptian politicians the notion of losing water thrives.ethiopia is out to closely work and cooperate with egypt for win-win solution. we wish egyptians to fulfill their dream.ok
Whether Egypt like it or not, the best way is to use the Nile water in an equitable manner . It doesn’t matter if Egypt democtatize itself or not,the main point is , can Egypt make a decision acceptable to the upper reparian countries or will continue with its old system of destabilizatiom?
Now Ethiopia has strong leadership & any future leadership should adopt a policy that can enable Ethiopia to use its natural resources properly.
There Is no policy that can stop me fromgh drinking my own water!
Dear fiends,
As PM. Meles said,we are in the 21st century.The young generation of Egypt will not go back to 18th century thinking.They want to live peacefully & happily sharing the water of Nile with their Ethiopian brothers.We have many concerns among us to develop our countries.So,when Mubarek & his followers are replaced by the young generation,I am sure there will be a better Nile treaty.
i believe that the removal of Mubarak and its regiem will open a new opportunity to Nile issue. Egypt will shift its stands to cooperation than comfrontation with upper Nile countries. Mubarak is old fashined person who want to continue playing the lost games. his removal will certainly open new cooperation opportunities for all who are concerned, including Ethiopia.
Ethiopia should strengthen its economy, for that peace and stability is crucial, first and foremost any attempt to create instability in ethiopia from within or outside the country shouldnt be tolerated. Those who want to copy and paste jasmine , or orange revolution should be advised and dealt with.
the current stability will enable ethiopia to have a strong economy which can be reflected in its diplomatic and military capabilities. Negotiations do not bear fruit if they arent supported by a strong and effective army.
The current crisis in Egypt wouldnt affect any dealings on nile, all egptians would like to see Egypt to be the only beneficiary of the River. Egypt with out the Nile would be inhabitable. In my opinion all politicians in Egypt would try to have a full controll of the nile water. The only solution for this is building ethiopias capacity to build and defend our dams. Thats the only time Egypt will understand the real meaning of a negotiation, negotiations suceed if its done between equals.
strong economy backed by a mighty army will guarantee our rights to use our rivers.
Anarchic Egypt is further lapsing into uncharted abyss. whethr Mubarak is ousted or not, chaos will be the happiest member of Egyptian society. The mounting chaos makes it impossible to satisfy the demands of all internal and external elements that have massed to tear down the thinest threads keeping Egypt as strong and stable as we used to know it at leat for the last three decades. for quite some years to come neither the deparate efforts to stablize Egypt nor the empty hopes to democratize it will bear fruit. I think, this is the lesson that we should underline when we think of our country’s interest in the NIle.
Through this topic and at the right time , I gave my comment . But my comment was in your Web as I remember not more than Two days. Then you took it out of the Web Site. I don´t know why. It was harmless comment which I gave and also according The realization of the movement. The nature of the movement in general was peaceful and all political powers, Democratical and radical Powers and Groups, individuals were taking part in this demonstration. This movement took so many days. Even if these different Political Organaisations Groups have different political vision and political stand, they didn’t manifest them self instade of that they had the same slogan which is against Mubarch and his government. The hole People in the demonstration had had one Goal. That Mubarch and his government may give up there position. It was a Democratic movement and was accepted throughout the World .
This was the base for my positive comment to say, Ja rigime chang in Egypt result in a better Nile treaty. I will also accept that it was difficult to realize the future. Even though you have given your web that We may give our comment. And You should have also respect it instead of reject it. I am sure if this same Topic may come at the present time, many People may have positive comment after seeing the flexibility of the provisional Government of Egypt concerning the Nile if it may be asked the People at the present.