The current civil uproar against a 60 year military dictatorship disguised in civilian uniform in Egypt is coming to an end. While that may be what the Egyptians want the west and the rest of the world is not sure about the change coming. The US is deeply involved to influence the 
outcome of the current crisis to its advantage. Similarly other Arab countries are trying to learn from how Egypt handles itself. Egypt and Ethiopia has a long relationship that includes religion and the Nile River. Egyptian government as well as experts have been fuming about the latest Nile Treaty Ethiopia is championing. The Ethiopian government had openly complained about Egypt’s role in destabilizing Ethiopia. Some say Ethiopia is shielded by God’s hand thus why her enemies from far and near have not been able to put her down over the years, but, that aside what do you think a regime change in Egypt would mean to the Nile Treaty and politics? Would a new government deal with the Nile issue in earnest or will it continue with business as usual? Have your say!
Any change, be it moderate or Muslim Brotherhood is good news for Mama Ethiopia and Nile Treaty. Our problem is with the old guards; leave alone out, Mubarak staying with new cabinet is also positive.
Better to wait and see. Mubarek is still there even if weak and how things will end is not known.
Business as usual,I say. Who ever comes the Nile issue is about their livelihoods, but how they’re gonna handle the procedure would be another case to be seen.
The worst case scenario, we may see another Islamist state like Iran, which will be hazzardious to the whole region.
In either ways our govt and leaders have a great determination on our developmental and transformation plan and seems nothing would hold us back from implimenting the ongoing progressive plan.
There ,indeed, will be a better chance on Nile treaty if there is a regime change in both countries.
DEAR IAGA !!! YOUR TOPIC IS VERY RELEVANT for the the BIGGER REGION.WE are
Living in a very interesting times . After the JASMINE revolution in TUNISIA the EGYTIAN rebellion is very significant to the whole REGION and the WORLD. AS for us more so. We drink the WATER from the NILE.
Dictatorial and autoritorian rigmes are very bad for peace .WE have to be on the side of the egypian people. THE more egypt DEMOCRATISES the. Better for peaceful c0existance with us . The dictators last comment was very BELLIGERANT . MUBAREK,said ” ETHIOPIA IS PLAYING WITH FIRE ” this a very cruel And sadistic speech I was disheartned WE ARE JUST struggling to survive .WE ARE fighting famine,hunger and starvation .MR. MUBAREK you hear where are we fighting with fire . THE fire you WISHED is at your doorsteps YOU ARE playing with FIRE .AS to fringe EXTREMISTS WHO are comparing EGYPT and ETHIOPIA. It is Like comparing ORANGE and APPLE .KEEP ON DAY DREAMING .the ETHIOPIAN PEOPLE HAVE LEARNED THE WISDOM of politics THEY oNLY want change through the BALLOT BOX only and ONLY by peaceful and LEGAL means THEY HAVE seen it all heard it before .we will smash poverty!!!!
Dear Aiga,
I cracked when I read your God insertion…they say Mariam Axum is what is keeping Ethiopia’s enemy at bay. Look the congress man that passed HR 2003 in the US house died not too long after he let the back door ally deal to pass HR 2003! Then the Senator who was touting to pass similar law got booted out thanks to Tea party politics! And now Mubarak who dispatch to thwart Gibe 3 and who recently invite all horn countries but Ethiopia for a football feast in Cairo is having an Awalom saying….that is Awalom saying to an Italian General who called upon him to save him during the battle of Adwa(Ye ante wulo telat aywalewu!). This after Awalom duped the Italians to the kill zone!
Anyways, Egypt will come weaker out of this crisis and it will take her long time to regain its significance in the region. Therefore Ethiopia will have a much better chance to produce a Nile treaty that will work for all countries in the region. I would think the West now that they are surely loosing Egypt, will try to find another country to take the spot of Egypt. No one knows who it will be from the Arab countries but Ethiopia will have a better place in their heart from here on…
As for new regime in Egypt and how it will handle Nile treaty, my guess is the new regime will try to play it safe until its stands on its two feet but am afraid may continue its policy as usual. I say this because the new regime may try to outsmart the old regime by becoming nationalist playing the Nile card.
Thanks for the topic!
As to me who ever leads Egypt, the conflict of Interest on Nile remains between Ethiopian and Egyptian society. Because it is not because of someone and someone else, it is because of fair share of resource. If extremism come to existent in Egypt their #1 target will be The Egyptian Coptic and #2 Ethiopia. It is good to stay Ethiopia strong enough and free, democratic and in harmony. No matter what would happen please take care every one not to defame our nation. Government should quickly wisely and democratically react to the Ethiopian society’s suffer this time. As the PM used to say he has to go extra mile to solve the current market, inflation, poverty in the country. As to Egypt it is nice to see this time Eritrean Gov’t ONLF, and OLF will die tomorrow.
Selam!!
The unknown is very dangerouse! IF Egypt becomes unstable, it’ll have a lasting negative effect on the entire region including Ethiopia. If a fundamentalisn islamic group takes over, even worse!
We need to be visionary beyond the short term.
From Nasser to Mubarek they are all from the military school and they have been singing the same song. The intelligence officer who is now put as the vice president by his collegues will do no good. They are all from the same fabrics with the same attitide as long as the issue of the Nile is concerned. If by miracle, air of change has to blow and shape the attitudes of the Egyptians, it will be, I think, if the government is made up from civilians. Then rational thinking will have a room in the minds of the Egyptians.
The Nile issue will depend on who will come into power in the Egyptian political system. The interest, for example, of Elbaradai is not only a regime change. He is typically interested in the overall change of the country’s constitution. This seems positive for Egypt and the region in general. The blomming of democracy in this big Arab nation will also be positive to solve the Nile issue taking the values of democracy and the rights of riparian countries to share their respective water resources. On the other hand, the Lebanon style politics that brought Hizbolah into power will endanger the whole region including the Nile issue. Thus the West have to follow the issue causiously.
From Nasser to Mubarek they are all from the military school and they have been singing the same song. The intelligence officer who is now put as the vice president by his collegues will do no good. They are all from the same fabrics with the same attitide as long as the issue of the Nile is concerned. If by miracle, air of change has to blow and shape the attitudes of the Egyptians, it will be, I think, if the government is made up from civilians. Then rational thinking will have a room in the minds of the Egyptians. Otherwise it will be business as usual. The wise handling of the Nile by the Ethiopian government will eventually triumph.
Ciao!
I think we Ethiopians should see this issue form our own perspective. What matters is a strong and united Ethiopia not a weaker/stronger Egypt. We got the right to use our own resources whether the Egyptians like it or not. No power on earth can prevent us from using our share of our ABAY!
No. All Egyptians are the same when it comes to national interest. Infact It could be worest if the Moslum brotheres took over.
A RC@ home Might though.
The Egypt’s fate is unfolding…no one quite knows how the end will be.
No matter the outcome, GOE should stay determine speed up the process in developing our natural resource in a fair share that will be a win win situation to both countries…but do not be naive about the Egyptian Elites and their intentions regardless of who is on power…
STAY ON GUARD AT ALL TIMES WHEN IT COMES TO OUR INTEREST.
Now Egypt is quagmire in its own internal affairs, GOE should consider the followings to be on its top strategic agenda.
-it is time for all opposition groups (LF’s) in Ethiopia who are used to getting their liberation doctrine conceived in Egypt to come aboard with the Ethiopian people or get squeezed into total surrendering.
-watch out to the desperate moves of the Eritrean Regime who owes its birth/conception to Egypt’s ill interest on Ethiopia.
Ethiopians in the diaspora are witnessing the desperate Shabiya trying to mobilize its stooges and azmaris in the opposition camp/zigubigne rat holes…
There is no Eritrean Pride but Hate for Ethiopia.
Aiga banda,
Why do u need the blessing of Egypt for Ethiopian resources?
First of all we Ethiopians have to stop saying “Mama Ethiopia’s God…” as if Ethiopia has a different God than the rest of the world.
Second, Ethiopia’s enemies, like Egypt have done enough to cripple us. What damage worst than the poverty, ignorance, backwardness do we expect? We are leaking our wounds inflicted by Egypt.
Finally, there is a new treaty that is signed by most of the Nile Basin countries. It’s too early to tell who will be in power in Egypt, and what stand they might have.The only thing is wait and see.
If I am right the discussion is about the situation in Egypt, not Eritrea. So let us not mix things. It seems Eritreans have chosen to stay under the radar and work to develop their economy. It is time to respect that.
As to the situaton in Egypt I would say there will not be any change. Nile to Egyptians is not about who governs the country but whether they should eat or not. In fact given the weak economy and frustrated population any move by Ethiopia can have severe consequeces. Weak regimes always like to create foreign enemy to mobilize the people. So Ethiopia should be very careful on this issue untill the dust settles.
……just wait and see. whatever happens in Egypt it has little effect on the greedy attitude of Egyptians over the Nile river . They strongly believe a weaker and /or disintegrated Ethiopia assures their existence . And I strongly believe a weaker Egypt guaranties peace and stablity for the whole east African region……
How come you guys (Aiga and the gov controlled media in Ethiopia) have been so quite about the situation in Tunsia, Egypt, yemen, and now in Sudan. Do you fear anything at all? You think it will spill to Ethiopia and the rest of Africa too?
Boxoo from Boxaaxoo
@Daniel, You are genious.
We have to look from our side. We are not thives to take advantages when egypt is weaker neither are we cowards to keep quite when egypt is stronger.
We have to be united, economically stronger and politicaly smarter.We will do the right thing and when egypt tries to misbehave, we will give her the price. or any country for that matter.
I do not think that a regime change in Egypt would bring any positive change to the Nile Treaty and politics. Egypt’s position on the issue has been there even long before the colonial treaties had been signed. In fact historians claim that Egypt had been striving to occupy the entire horn of Africa, including the lake victoria to make it part of its territory since 13th century. Thus, its current position towards Ethiopia is not new that was articulated by Hosni-Mubarek but it has been there for centuries.
Let the government of Ethiopia exploit every opportunity to finalize the new treaty, while constructing dams and farms at the same time. Egypt will only pacify it relation with Ethiopia when the latter is more stronger and wealthier. Period.
No not at all, no change Mubaruk is being pushed out by the US before the election to get a ready mann to take over helped by the military which can not survive without the Billion american $. If the election in Egypt were to go as schedual Little Mubarke his son was to take over for suer which Americans did not belive the Egptian people will accept.
I do not believe that a regime change in Egypt will bring any thing different as far as the Nile River is conserned. No matter who comes in power, Egypt will follow the same old story, that Nile is a gift from God to them. This implies that Ethiopia has no right to use its own water.
Yohannes B
New York
O one thinng I forgaot! the old folks in Egypt were not happy by the out come of Southeren Sudan…..So Mubaruk and friends would design to creat havoc in South Sudan… how will that help Et? but with him gone it may be better when it comes to peace in South Sudan but on the otherhand, New EGYPt gov will be terrifed to tell its population The Nile is not a big deal. The Nile issue is a galvenizing issue for Egyptions. ….My worry is South Sudan wil we see Darfur ?will eth get another ally on the Nile?…………….
I don’t think regim change in Egypt will compromise Egypt’s desparattion to control the Nile. My advice for you Ethiopians is have “Big Mama” (USA) on your side. Nothing else will work. It is like hoping regim change in Israel can bring change to Palestinians. That has never happened.
Mr. Woyane mouth piece Aiga. Stop talking about trivial matters such as the issue of the Abay River.
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(hmmmm Nile is trivial to you? no wonder…nothing was done when you were at the helm? )
Every thing said up is Kolotuktuko…keep up Ethiopia.
At this point in time, we are seeing a different dynamics in the north eastern african region. We will have to wait and see who clings on to power in Egypt. If a radical Islamist group comes to power ( as the Israeli Prime Minister has predicted), then we are heading to a lot pf worries for Ethiopia and for Israel. of course, Israel can fend for itself. But, I have a lot of concerns on the implications this will have to Ethiopia. Remember, Ethiopia has a pro- western and is allied with the US against a misplaced theory against a global war on terror. So, the issue of the Nile becomes only one factor in this equation.
We, Ethiopians need to focus only on what we can control and just like Israelies watch the out come of this chaos quietly. What we can is to make Ethiopia more strong by focusing in our econmical growth along with building our defence or attack capability. We are stronger today not by war mongering around our enemies but rather by quietly building our economy, let’s keep doing that.
There are two situation that come out after the dust settels in Egypt: the first one is we may have a government that sing the same song like Mubarek and leaders before him or if we are lucky, we will have a government that beleives in a win-win solution. Our govenment has to be ready for both scenarioes.
God Bless Ethiopia!!
Ethiopia will wish one day Mubarak back to power. The Muslim Brotherhood are enemy Nr.1 of Ethiopia and Christianity in general. Even the so called moderate politicians know very well, that the growing ppl. of egypt, economical problems and the global warming are bringing the state of egypt in a big problem. If you don’t have a salution for internal problems, than you need an external enemy to bring the ppl. and the nation at at all together. Every politician know that. Israel and Ethiopia are a reason for Egyptian politicians to hide the internal problems, but Israel is a powerful enemy and the egyptians need the $$$ from USA. Thatsway have Ethiopia to affraid more than other states in the region fron the change in Egypt. Wait and you will that happen.
Egypt’s policy towards Ethiopia and the Nile has been consistent since the days of Ismail Pasha and Munzinger irrespective of regime change (since late 19th century).
What Munzinger said in the late 1800s – “Ethiopia with a disciplined administration and army, and a friend of the European powers, is a danger for Egypt. Egypt must either take over Ethiopia and Islamize it, or retain it in an anarchy and misery” – is still the basis of Egypt’s foreign policy on Ethiopia. Munzinger and Ismail’s ambition of annexing Ethiopia was crushed by Atse Yohannes, Ras Alula and thousands of brave Ethiopians; but Egypt’s desire to deprive Ethiopia of using the Nile still remains strong.
Even though I disagree some of PM Meles’s domestic and foreign policies (especially his commitment to Eritrea); I fully support his staunch position on Ethiopia’s right to use the Nile; his defiance and leading the coalition of Nile riparian countries to sign a treaty aimed at making the colonial powers brokered treaty between Egypt and The Sudan irrelevant.
The Almighty God the creator of heaven and earth and everything in it is with us! No one is stronger than Egziabher!
When the mad dog in Asmara and his BUTCHELAS were butchering Ethiopians on a broad day light the west especially a mega world power and an extremely influential regional power were assessing their options in a very cool manner. No one put a sanction on the mad aggressor. Ethiopia had to spill blood and chase and evict the snake from hole to hole alone.
Then came 9/11 and Afghanistan war, Iraq war, Lebanon war and Gaza war.
Now Mr. SHATER himself and his dark thugs are sweeting it out in the street of Cairo, Alexandria and Suez. At the same time ministers and envoys from almost around world are assembled in Addis! What a coincidence!
This for me is a sign from above!
It is never a good idea to spill, conspire to spill Ethiopian blood or look away when Ethiopian blood is spilled.
To Editor,
Regarding your response to commenter “Lisanu H.M”: I have few things to say. Do you personally know the commenter was in power in Ethiopia at sometimes in the past? Or is this a slant …
After your stunned silence for long time following the epic proportioned revolt that’s engulfed our continent and neighbours, all you came up with was this speciously constructed squeaker: “Would a regime Change in Egypt result in a better Nile treaty?” How lamentable!
—————
And may we ask you why it is lamentable to you? For us it is a national issue that fits well in to the final emancipation our people have been fighting for decades! That is to defeat poverty! Nothing close comes second to Ethiopians as a priority as far as defeating poverty goes except the use of its natural wealth!
Nile is one wealth and Egypt has been a thorn in this regard. Now leave others to speak for themselves and speak for yourself? Why is the Nile issue not important to you?
The Political situation in Egypt will bring something new atmosphere for a radical change for the People of Egypt and also hope fully a better Policy of Nile treaty. It is the leadership who is playing the main roll. But I think it can also not be easy to judge in what way the leadership will be formed. Hopefully it will be transitional Government which stable the situation now. It may be also acceptable by most of the People of Egypt because it gives a right pass to organize more democratic Political Parties and Political Organizations. If it goes in this healthy pass ,the new Government may judge Nile treaty democratically and accept the democracy of the Nile treaty Lands.
Any leadership change in Egypt would use the anti-Ethiopia Nile rhetoric to rally their people support behind them . I guess it is naive to expect any Egypt Leadership/opposition to be brave enough to tell the truth to thier people during this turmoil or very soon. As I said it they would use (Ethiopia and) other Nile upstream nations as scapegoat to get support and as unifying factor.
The only front left for upstream Nile nations is diplomatic front
But as to the diplomatic front this is the right time to grab the diplomatic power and force Egypt to come to its sense to treat the 100 of millions of Upstream Nile nation as human beings. They have this front to show the world how all the hunger and poverty of these nations is as at core happening because of the unhuman irresponsible Egyptian and West politics regarding Nile.
Ethiopia should lead the upstream nation on the legitmate fight to end the colonial-era treaties.
I think the key is not to take any sides – who knows what is going to develop. Egypt may regress to extremism of a crueler military dictatorship or radical Islamists, like the days before MUBARAK. Or, it may go in a more civil and democratic direction. It’s hard to tell rgiht now. But whatever the outcome, staying neutral gives Ethiopia the best chance to have a cooperative gov. in Egypt in the future.
AIGAS, you are amazing. You have no shame to write and remind the Ethiopian people about an Egyptian military dictatorship in civilian uniform.
Please give us brake.
Daniel nailed it !
ONLY stronger Ethiopia matters. Nothingelse! I am an Addis kid from eritrean parents and as an Addis kid, I say this to my Ethiopian brothers and sisters: If you have sincerity in your conscience, if honest is the rarest commodity left in your heart, then previous regimes killed & weakened Ethiopia & Ethiopians. You know Ethiopa had never had this much powerful card against Egypt until now. why!? read more
I am neither a supporter nor a fan of EPRDF. In fact you know how I should feel for kicking our ass outta Addis. But, I have got to give credit to the devil. ONLY stronger Ethiopia matters whatever Egypt is going to be. I wish you know how the Arabs perceive us black Africans (both christians & moslems). I wish you do!
ye’Tekleyew!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1USdMUWbIdo&sns=em
Check the link above friends…Wiki is revealing thatThe US is behind the riot.
It suggest that it was an on going project of CIA since 2008
I think it shouldn’t matter. We, all Ethiopians stick to our guns and make history by doing the right thing, which is stop fightting each other, trust each other in what we are diong, resolve disagrement by discussion. Every time a foreigne comes to Ethiopia uses our own differenceses to exolit us. Every ethiopian citizen understand that whenever a foreigne force gives a gun to an ethiopian there is alwyes something that country or the invidual a wantsas a desierd out come. In adittion , the ethiopian defense forceses need to by read to fight any agraission.As it has been said ” the best way to avoid a war is to prepare for it.” If we had been prepared pre Badme war the conflict between ethiopia and ertria wouldn’t happen.My concilusion for this assasment comes from the ethiopia and ertria existing situation which is that they think we have their land and yet they don’t fight us because we are prepared for it. Ertrian started the badme war in 2000 because they could. (our army was dispersed) Only arrogant people start a fighting because they can without any rational.
who cares who governs egypt……let them go to hell
But what ethiopia should do is use the nile and start
developing whether egypt is barking or not.
I dont think there is a difference b/n Mubarek & Islamists to ethiopia, but we have to make stronger ETHIOPIA in many ways.
If Egypt’s schollars El-beradei,Butros Qali… said ” there will be a water war in the future,then what do we expect from Egyptians? The usual! Egypt’s schollars should have understood that the Nile belongs to every country on its way & every country should use it in an equitable manner,but couldn’t sense it this way.Anyways, What we,as Ethiopians can do is: Stay strong Economically,politically,Socially,Technologically… So we can sustain ourselves for whatever comes!
In my opinion, Egypt kept Ethiopia at bay using a distabilizing method,but now Ethiopia got out of all the messes Egypt put her & marching towards its bright future.
Woldai,
I thought the discussion was about Egypt’s violence and Ethiopia. 10 yrs after the war, are you still thinking of Eritrea. You must be caring a lot about that country or have a very unhealthy hate. Got to see a doctor. Now, let us talk about Egypt’s violence. Do you think it is terminal. Do you think it is good for Egyptians? and do you think it is a justified uprising?
Wendimih
Let’s answer the following scenario: Would there be a war had there been a boarder issue b/n the U.S. & Canada. My answer is, absolutely NO. If a future Egyptian gov’t will be democratic? No question in my mind … they would enter into negotiation. Example, unlike the Eritrean gov’t's 19th century mentality in its case about boarder issue with Ethiopia, a democratic gov’t would definitely sit and negotiate with Ethiopia!
i think as an ethiopian i say we have to think to the betterment of the motherland if our economy is storong as our people are getting stronger
no budy will mess with as so lets stay focus working on the poverty reduction and going to became a midle class income country
who cares about Eygpt lets stay focus……………………………
Mariam Tsion Ze Axum is on the side of weyane-ethiopia, case close, so stop worrying about the dying demon and speculating about the sprouting devil in Tahira.
It worries me to see people in charge of my country being so naive and asking wither a temporary problem here and there would affect Egypt’s stand on their one and only life line. it is like expecting the people of Egypt no to feel thirsty because they are rioting..believe it or not, even if 99.9% of egyptians go on rioting, they would still have more than enough people to doing the other most important job of destabilizing Ethiopia through Shabia. didn’t we just a few days a go complain about shabia sending terrorist? where else do you think shabia get’s his funds from. tell me one single commodity other than refugees he trades to earn his bucks. please don’t be too naive AIGA, your naivety in regards to Egypt and specially Eritreans is costing us too much.
Ethiopia is shielded by GODS hand?? It is ridiculous to say God only stands for Ethiopia. This kind of extreme thinking is not good for every one. It reminds me about many private newspapers that were published during the Ethio-Eri war. “Yeityopia Amlak Etiopiyan yitbqatal; Telatochewa erse bersachew eiytechefachefu new”Which meanse “God is shielding Ethiopia and its enemies are killing each other”. God knows who those enemies are. Any way don’t be fools. God doesn’t favor Ethiopia over others. Every human being is one in the eyes of God
Egyptiaan are in a deep problem among them selfs.this time abay is not the issue .democracy,equality,religion firest priority they are 60 year behind.ther problem much more difficult than ABAY .who ever who they have a plan to learn from GREATER ETHIOPIA.is not easy for egypt or egyptian for the next 10 years.GOD BLACE ETHIOPIA