Election 2010 by all indication is going to be as popular if not more as election 2005 was. As we all know a spectacular peaceful election 2005 was tarnished by events that followed after the election. Ethiopians are hoping lessons were learned both by the government and the oppositions no to repeat past mistakes. The recently signed code of conduct by most oppositions and the EPRDF is a good sign that indeed lessons have been learned.
But in Ethiopia political groups are born every election and the learning curve is always there with all new comers. The latest new comers are ARENA, UDJ and MEDREK. ARENA’s constituents are mainly Tigreans, it is a regional player. UDJ is a national player and claims its constituents will be allover the country. UDJ has nominated an ex-EPRDF to represent its ideal and stand for election in Qola Tembien.
UDJ through its nominee is already claiming foul play if its nominee does not win! Remember Eng Hailu election night claim that Addis Ababa election was rigged!
Qola Tembien is in Tigrai where ARENA is expected to contest TPLF another regional player. TPLF as we all know is the governing party in Tigrai and will contest every regional and federal seats. But will ARENA contest every seat? Will it contest Qola Tembien seat against UDJ? Aite Gebru in his recent interview with Merhawit Radio said the link between UDJ and ARENA is a very thin thread. He said MEDREK a coalition between ARENA and UDJ as well as others was formed with a minimum requirement. Many think that minimum requirement is hate against EPRDF but what ever it is it is not a link strong enough to pull UDJ strong man Siye to join ARENA. Siye joined UDJ shunning ARENA!
ARENA and UDJ do not see eye to eye when it comes to article 39 and land ownership and many critical pillars of the constitution of Ethiopia. Or do they!
The question is will ARENA forfeit its potential seat in Qola Tembien for expediency and dishearten its supporters? The lesson from election 2005 is that quick fix coalition do not last much and when push comes to shove and split rears its head, much like EDP/AEUP/Kestedemena, every organization will claim its seat for itself.
Also, elections are suppose to be about ideas and not personalities in Ethiopia. And, as we all know UDJ and ARENA’s idea’s are not the same. Unless ARENA thinks it is okay to use UDJ personalities regardless of their views and ideals as long as they help defeat EPRDF they must not forfeit any seat to UDJ or any one else. If they do then it all makes sense why many people think to this day TPLF split was not about ideas and policies but all about power!
That is what we think but what do you think? Have your say!
