Why Did Opposition Parties in Ethiopia Suffer a Crushing Defeat in the 4^th National Elections?

By Sintayehu Yimer

Translated by Washera_2

June 15, 2010

The conclusion of the 4^th national elections in Ethiopia with total decimation of the opposition parties was an unpredictable and a surprising outcome to actors and observers alike. However, the results are not an accidental shtick, but portray an array of political and socio-economic reasons embedded in them. In the following paragraphs, we will explore the preparations undertaken to have the elections in a level playing field and the steps taken to protect the legitimacy of the final results.

A: Preparations for the Elections

The Ethiopian government had made diligent preliminary preparations to insure an even playing field for all parties involved and to guarantee that any election related incidents will be dealt with fairly and freely, to the satisfaction of both national and international observers. Among the steps taken were:

Since the National Electoral Board is the highest organ entrusted with the responsibility of running the elections and needed to have the trust of all the parties involved, 24 active parliament members were chosen and approved by the opposition parties, before their names were submitted to the Prime Minister, who then appointed nine of them to the board membership. Three of the original 24 were chosen by the opposition

Despite its meager resources, the government was willing to allocate eight million Birr for the different parties to boost their coffers. The disbursement of these funds was accomplished with participation of all concerned parties and along agreed upon formulas and calculations.

The government had earmarked 38 million Birr for a free television and radio airtime and newspaper editorials, to allow the parties to adequately introduce their respective party programs to the Ethiopian people. (It should be remembered that most of the opposition parties utilized less than 50% of their allotted airtime and newspaper space.) According to the calculations made by the parties, the ruling party’s share of airtime and newspaper coverage was less than 30%.

To allow the voting public to be well-informed and knowledgeable on the different policy issues raised by the parties, nine rounds of televised debates were held over a period of several weeks.

With the participation and agreement of more than 65 parties, a formula for the election process was debated upon and an Election Code of Conduct law was passed that made the playing field level, legal and peaceful. To make sure that the standards of this law have international acceptance, most of the recommendations were obtained directly from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). A Council of Political Parties was established at different levels and has resolved many election related complaints. Those parties that did not wish to join the Council were able to take their issues and concerns directly to the Election Board and had them resolved promptly.

Through a special request by the different parties, the time for candidacy application and voter registration was extended by more than one month. Accordingly, more than 32 million voters were registered in 2010 compared to 27 million in 2005. In addition, 63 parties fielded a total of 2113 candidates for the Federal Government’s Council of People’s Representatives and 4487 candidates for the Kilil or Regional council seats.

By increasing the number of polling stations, it was possible to limit the number of voters to 1,000 per polling station, so as to prevent overcrowding and undue waste of time. This made for a smooth and easy day at the polls.

In each one of the 43,000 voting stations, a total 220,000 individuals, chosen by the people and not affiliated with any political party, were assigned to observe the elections.

Over 10 civic society organizations were able to choose more than 43,000 individuals, at least one person per voting station, to observe the elections.

Everywhere that the opposition party had candidates running for office, they were allowed by law, to have their own election observers. According to the European Union report, the opposition parties were able to send their observers in 90% of the voting stations.

60 people from the African Union and 160 from the European Union were able to visit as many polling stations as possible, as observers. They were especially present in the highly contested regions where the opposition had major presence and were able to observe the pre-election activities, the voting modes operandi and the vote counting process very closely and report back to their respective organizations.

This was how the election was conducted. Other than making the playing field level and conducive to all parties, no democratic government has the right to replace the electorate and have one or the other party voted into office.

B: Reasons for the success of the ruling party

I. The strength of EPRDF

i. The EPRDF government has been able to register more than 11% economic growth for the previous six years, allowing the population to share in this success and to have a determined hope for better days ahead. No party that has brought progress at such a speed has ever lost elections. This is the main reason for the outright success of EPRDF in these elections.

ii. The efforts made by EPRDF to resolve issues related to good governance may not have filtered to the lowest administrative body. But the determination with which these changes were implemented at the highest level has garnered respect and admiration for the ruling party.

iii. In the last several years, the ruling party has made significant organizational improvements based on input from the population that has made it stronger. Its improved membership qualifications have allowed it to increase its membership to over five million. This organizational strength was a major tool in accomplishing its election goals.

iv. During the weeks of debates with the opposition, EPRDF was well prepared, articulate and thorough in transmitting its message to the voting public. It used its share of the free airtime maximally in these debates and also made special efforts to address youth groups, women’s organizations and other professional groups to send home its campaign message and party positions.

v. These and many other successes registered by EPRDF together with its vision for the coming five years which were clearly articulated for the people, are considered to be its major strengths.

II: Deficiencies and weaknesses of the Opposition

i) Ever since the 2005 elections, we have witnessed the weakening and divisive nature of the opposition parties, even as EPRDF was getting stronger. The break-up of Kinijit has angered and disappointed their supporters to the point of losing hope in their ability to govern. The Kinijit of 2005 was split up into six parties; MEAD, EDP, ANDINET, KINIJIT, Ginbot 7 and Merih Yikeber Andinet, to the dissatisfaction and distress of its supporters.

ii) The large number of opposition parties, numbering 63, had made it impossible for the people to hear a united voice and agenda fit to oppose the one so eloquently expressed by EPRDF. Some of these opposition leaders would be hiding for five years and show up only during an election season, which made the public to doubt their organizational diversity and their preparedness to lead. Although about 40% of the Addis Ababa electorate gave them their vote, the different party leaders were competing with each other and lost the majority vote to EPRDF.

iii) The different political units that formed a forum in a very short period of time, just to overthrow EPRDF, did not catch fire and not many fell for their cheap hat trick. MEDREK is a typical example of this unfortunate drama. The different parties who joined MEDREK could not agree on the issues of land reform and article 39. Instead of taking a firm position on one or the other, they told their audience that they will resolve these issues with a referendum after the elections. Many of their supporters took this to mean sleeping over a crisis rather than resolving it right away.

iv)

v) In general, the competition was between parties that have wide differences in their organizational strength, in the clarity of their program, in their ability to carry out their mission and in their trustworthiness. Under these circumstances, it is crystal clear that similar elections in any other country in the world would have the same outcome as the one we saw in Ethiopia.

C: The response of the opposition to the election results.

i. The majority was able to accept the verdict and congratulated the winner.

ii. Many have started a peaceful and legal process for alleged election related irregularities.

iii. A number of them have demanded a rerun of the elections.

iv. These opposition groups have every right to pursue their allegations in a peaceful and legal manner.

v. Those members who had expressed their happiness in the election process until the election and then changed their mind after the results were announced need to understand that they and only they are responsible for their defeat and cannot run away from that responsibility.

vi. Recently, the Electoral Board has given an extensive and thorough response to MEAD’s and Medrek’s baseless accusations and request for a rerun of the election. It was dismayed by the impertinence of Medrek to present alleged prejudices of the electoral board as one of the reasons for a rerun of the elections.

D: The strengths of the winning party in the post-election era.

i. The winning party will graciously accept the win and has called on the opposition to consult with it on important national issues. It will listen to opposition voices and advance the politics of tolerance.

ii. No amount of outside pressure will deter it from respecting, upholding and executing the wishes of the people.

E: The views and opinions of national and international observers.

i. Nationally elected observers and representatives of various civic organizations who observed the elections have given their verdict in the affirmative. They have confirmed that the elections were peaceful, free and fair and that the results reflected the wishes of the people.

ii. The observers of the African Union have declared that the elections were peaceful, free and fair. Unfortunately, the world media did not make any comments on these eye-witness reports.

iii. The European Union observers applauded the peaceful nature of the elections, the professional conduct of the Electorate Board in running and monitoring the elections and the positive reflection of the wishes of the people. However, they went on to comment on non-election related affairs and conclude that the elections fell short of international standards on some counts. The accusation that the election process favored the ruling party is a long-standing difference between EPRDF and the organization and some other western governments. These differences will continue in the future. Despite it all, the congratulatory message sent to the Ethiopian government by the foreign relations secretary of the European Union, is a clear indication of his belief in a stronger relationship with Ethiopia in the future.

Comment by Washera:

I would like to thank the author of this article for putting the issue so succinctly. I can only add that the despite the lower estimate of some government officials on the winning margin, I am sure that they are all very happy with the peaceful conduct of this historic election. The credit undoubtedly goes to the Ethiopian people, who knew what to do and how to do it. Our hats go off to them!

Finally, just like my pre-election predication for a landslide victory for EPRDF, I will go out on a limb and say that EPERDF will rule for many decades, before a worthy challenger comes to unseat it. The gratifying thought of such an eventuality is the peaceful and long period of time it would offer EPRDF to proceed with some of its major infrastructure and development project, in line with its Millennium goals, in the process transforming itself into a dominant party in Ethiopia. I have no doubt that the seeds of democracy planted a long time ago will continue to blossom over the coming years.