HANAN
ALI 08/18/13
Ethiopia
has always had the wits for good foreign policy. This is manifested by the fact
that Ethiopia got the diplomatic support of the international community,
particularly South Sudan, Sudan and most likely Egypt, states that at one point objected to the construction of the once
controversial Renaissance dam on the Nile River.
The victory is earned by the patient and
consistent diplomatic efforts Ethiopia had put in even before the launching of
the construction of the Renaissance dam. The diplomatic works are traced back
to the founding of the Nile Basin Initiative which created a common vision
among Nile riparian states; “achieve sustainable socioeconomic development
through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources."[.
Fortunately for the upper stream states, the
initiative gave birth to the Entebbe Agreement signed by all but one of them. Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia signed the agreement whereas Democratic
Republic of Congo remains undecided. South Sudan has also disclosed its
intention to join the upper riparian states.
The agreement is a huge success for the
African states took a significant leap forward in guaranteeing their peoples’
right to development. It is a revolutionary step that must have taken quite a
courage to embark on and each state must be applauded for it. And orchestrating
it was Ethiopia, a nation that for so long dreamed of but never realized taming
the wild Abay (Nile) for domestic development purposes.
It had never been in a position to utilize
the Nile; during none of the previous regimes has Ethiopia gotten close to
ripping the fruits of the river. The most proximate it got was having had
researches made by the Americans during Emperor Haile Silassie’s rule, nothing
beyond. Owing to the continuous economic growth that Ethiopia has registered in
the past decade or more, its energy demand has more than doubled and it was
inevitable that Ethiopia resorted to the most efficient source of energy in the
circumstances, hydroelectric power. Having built its capacity and being fit for
the task for the first time in its history, Ethiopia launched the construction
of the Renaissance dam in the faith that it shall be completed with or without
financial aid and approval of those concerned.
This, not by lack of respect for the Nile
River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement but because as per its article
4(2)d, the technical findings by Ethiopian researchers suggested that the dam
posed no threat to the interests of the lower riparian states and in fact in
the long run, that it was beneficial.
Accordingly, on May 28th Ethiopia announced its diversion of the Nile from its natural course, a routine step at a certain
point of the construction of dams. This led to the outrageous Egyptian verbal
assault against Ethiopia driven by the incomprehendable fear that the volume of
water reaching Egypt might be significantly reduced. The news of the diversion
apparently had the Egyptians throw off their civilized mask and had them
show their real selves, at least temporarily.
Mursi and his cabinet were caught off guard rambling
what could only be described as disrespectful; not to Ethiopia but to the whole
concept of diplomacy, the Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement in
particular and Africa in general, degrading to Egypt as well.
There were unequivocal and express threats of
war made by Egyptian officials and a few of their experts propagated that war
is the only way that survival could be secured. As stated earlier, Mursi gave a
speech that could have jeopardized the diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, had the latter gave the proportional response.
In his speech that had a completely different
agenda than secure the “water the fruit of which Egypt is” Mursi equated a drop
of the Nile to a drop of Egyptian blood. He called on Egyptians to unite in
front of the greatest danger that their country could ever face; the siphoning
off of the Nile. International media outlets gave his pseudo patriotic war
provoking speech a huge coverage. From such an irresponsible move, some
speculated some sort of measure by Egypt against the Renaissance dam, it was
feared that the verbal assault could be escalated to actual conflict.
Some Egyptians suggested that their
government gave an end to the Renaissance dam in the soonest possible time.
While others insisted that Egypt instrumented all diplomatic means to obstruct
the Ethiopian project on the Nile as Ethiopia was not in need of it. This group
of Egyptians maintained that Ethiopia had alternative rivers to exploit and
that its existence did not depend on the Nile as did Egypt’s. Almasr Elyoum, an
Egyptian news site reported that Geographic and Legal experts have warned that Addis Ababa is planning to exterminate Egyptians. Among these was the Egyptian
Geographical Expert Dr. Abbas Sheraky who held that the Renaissance dam was
basically intended for political consumption and that the amount of mega watt
it produces is way beyond Ethiopia’s need.
A certain Abdallah Asha’al, an expert of
International Law, recommended that Egypt used its diplomatic means to draw
Israel, Italy, China and the U.S. away from Ethiopia leaving the latter
helpless and unable to finish the project; with the faulty presumption that
Ethiopia relied on these states to undertake the construction of the project.
Also, the former Water resources and
Irrigation Minister Dr. Mohamed Nesreddin Allam suggested that Egypt should object to and stand in the face of any projects on the Nile in Ethiopia since the latter contributes to up to 85% of the waters of the Nile, thus making the impact
of dams in Ethiopia significantly harmful to Egypt’s share. At least Mr. Allam
was generous enough not to deny the overwhelming contribution Ethiopia makes to the Nile River.
As for the diplomatically unsavvy speech
Mursi gave in his failed attempt to avert the then upcoming ouster from power,
it only earned him more anger from the majority Egyptians who by then were
better aware of the Nile agenda than before. Most Egyptians have come to
realize that the issue of the Nile had been abused by successive leaders to
divert their attentions from the more crucial domestic issues of economic
development, equitable growth and the like.
Ethiopia
easily perceived this struggle of Mursi’s to hang on to power, so it did not
make much fuss over the provoking speech. It only asserted that nothing could
stand the way of its construction of the Renaissance dam on the Nile and that peace was in the best interest of both sides. Had Ethiopia been as hot
tempered as the situation demanded, it is difficult to imagine what the
consequences would have been.
As for those Egyptians who insisted that Ethiopia did not need the dam that is being constructed on the Nile, who said Ethiopia could not be the “new fruit” of the Nile as has been Egypt for this long? Who said that Ethiopia could not rewrite its history of under development and kiss poverty good bye with
the help of its mighty river Abay? Here is news to those Egyptians who claim
that Ethiopia had other alternative rivers than the Nile: the Nile is the best
alternative under the circumstances for the amount of energy it generates and
its geographical convenience for construction. With the pace of economic growth
Ethiopia is making the Nile now is as crucial to Ethiopia as it has been to Egypt.
The MW that the Renaissance dam produces is
intended to expand the electricity coverage and to help narrow the gap between
the demand and supply that ever increases. And if the circumstances allow Ethiopia would export electricity to neighboring states. That would be a very helpful
income for Ethiopia in light of decreasing the trade balance deficit and in
enhancing its campaign of war on poverty.
Thus it should be underlined and understood
that Ethiopia’s Renaissance project sees a lot far beyond than the alleged
political consumption that is doomed to be short lived. It should be affirmed
that the Renaissance dam is intended only for developmental and anti poverty consumption.
The diplomatic ploy to cut Ethiopia off partners and have it handicapped is
not going to work for two reasons. One is that the construction of the
Renaissance dam was not launched counting on foreign aid.
It is with the faith that it will be completed
by the contribution of Ethiopians the project got underway. And to this day,
Ethiopians everywhere are purchasing bonds to show their allegiance to the
brighter future the Ethiopian leadership is trying to secure. On the other
hand, Egypt, unfortunately, had lost its diplomatic charm among the
international community and particularly among the partners mentioned (Israel, Italy, China and the US) because it failed to produce concrete evidence supporting its woes
of water interest infringement.
The harmlessness of the Renaissance project
to Egyptian and Sudanese water interests has been established first by
Ethiopian experts and later on by a tripartite technical committee to which Egypt and Sudan were parties. The committee subsequently confirmed the findings of the Ethiopian
experts upon which Ethiopia based its launching of the project.
The technical committee asserted that Ethiopia’s construction of the dam will have no adverse effect on the Egyptian and Sudanese interest
on the Nile. The report further stated that the construction of the Renaissance
dam will benefit the two lower riparian states by minimizing water volume
fluctuations that result in flooding every year in Sudan. Also, the dam was
accredited for saving the amount of water that evaporates in the desert in Egypt’s favor.
Egyptian geologists insisted that the area
where the Renaissance dam is built is prone to tectonic activities and that
there is always the chance of the dam collapsing inflicting a tremendous damage
on Sudan and Egypt. This postulate was annulled by Ethiopian experts’ revealing
that the area of the project was away from the tectonic activity prone region
of the rift valley. In fact, the project is undertaken in the part of the
country where igneous rock mountains are prevalent, making it least susceptible
to tectonic activities.
With all the doubts cleared about the nature
and consequence of the renaissance dam it’s only reasonable to expect that Egypt would soon join the bloc as did the rest of the Nile River Basin states. Many enlightened
Egyptians suggested that violence was no way to handle Egypt’s difference with Ethiopia over the Nile and negotiations were much profitable.
them were those who urged their government to
follow an equitable use policy over the Nile as attempting to maintain the
status quo would amount to challenging the natural course of things, i.e.,
change was inevitable and the demand of the time. There were also those who
urged for improved diplomatic relation with the so far neglected African
continent pointing that it resulted in the Egyptian diplomatic loss of the Nile controversy.
In all these events the extraordinary
competence of the Ethiopian diplomatic community stands out. From the earliest
stages of harmonizing the upper stream states in equitable use of the Nile to
its deaf ear to the Egyptian clamor of war threat and its focus on getting the
Renaissance job done, the Ethiopian leadership is worthy of a prize.
