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Nile Belligerence is Diffidence: Modus vivendi is Confidence

                                                                                                          Basazin Fenta Ayele

I and my father used to go to the confluence of Lake Tana and Abay every Sundays when I was a boy. Our home was by the the river side. Its vicinity enabled us to frequent the river for various purposes including swimming and bathing. Most importantly, I could not forget the ethereal scenery I watched savoring every day when I was a boy.

My father, who was a primary school teacher by profession, was used to telling me various tales, poems and stories related to the river. His explanation was so absorbing that I will cherish all he had told me until death. According to him, his teachers had taught him that Egypt and Sudan had constructed dams on the river which enabled them to undertake various development activities including irrigation and electrification.

He said Ethiopia will one day construct a big dam on Abay, gallop on a track of development and soothe the deep-rooted angst of generations. To date, I could remember his narration was fetched from deep understanding of geography and history.

Fortunately, my brother has become a truck driver who is discharging his responsibility at the project site of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). He took a short leave to come to Addis Ababa for medication purpose. The piece of mobile photo and video he had taken at the site has enabled me to grasp snap shot of activities in the Abay valley. The buzz of activities I had watched was so mesmerizing that it it left me riveted until the abrupt end of the film.

Magical humming and awesome roaring is resonating across the border of Ethiopia adjoining Sudan, breaking the insurmountable tranquility reigned over the area since The Creation. Restless trucks, loaders, excavators and other types of construction machineries are chugging, whirring and splashing mercilessly.

They are persistently gnawing away at the Abbay valley of the Guba area in Benishangul Gumuz State. Here, resolute men, women and sturdy machineries are ergonomically integrated under the sweltering sky. All have aimed to excavate weighty stones of poverty and erect long-awaited Dam of prosperity.

Nile is the longest river in the world (though least discharge compared to rivers like Amazon and Mississippi) with its basin covering 1.3 million square miles. The river has inter-woven ten riparian states including Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, DR Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and Eritrea. Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt  are very much crucial than the remaining seven from the vantage point of Nile water hydrology, Nile water issues, cooperation and prevention of potential conflict(though unlikely and unreasonable).

Viewed from geographic reference, according to Geographer from Addis Ababa University , Desalegn  Aylele , Ethiopia is endowed with mountainous topography that traps more rainfall (compared to its neighbors) carried by mainly trade winds originating from Atlantic Ocean (kiremet rain fall) and  easterlies blowing from Indian Ocean (belg rain fall).

 He said Blue Nile is the first-born of Ethiopia which feeds 86 percent of the Nile water flowing to Egypt. Some 56 percent of the water is carried by Blue Nile originating from Lake Tana, 14 percent via Baro/Akobo/Sobat and the remaining viaTekeze/Atbara.

According to him, Abay stretches 900 kms from Lake Tana to Khartoum. The river has eleven major tributaries of which two join Abay in Khartoum. Contrary to Nile, which has more or less constant water volume,  Abay experiences seasonal fluctuation in which surge of flood occurs. (The name Blue Nile is coined from muddy water that rapidly runs down from Ethiopian high lands).

All along its upper course in Ethiopia, erosion occurs because of mountainous nature of the country and mighty rivers flowing down steep slopes. Especially, a river like Abay has a serious of rapids and falls in its upper course and deep gorges curved out through its journey. 

According to studies conducted so far, Abay has untapped potential for generating 172 billion KW. This capacity is far greater than the joint national production of Egypt and Sudan. Hence, the question that popped most is ‘’why can’t Ethiopia fully harness these bonanza of natural resources and utilize it for electrification and irrigation purposes?

The most convincing answer to this question is because of protracted war and instability that plagued the country for many hundred years (war fermented at home or incited by aggressive foreign elements), lack of technical knowhow and finance in the previous years.

The country has got relative peace and stability in the past two decades following the advent of Constitutional order and the demise of oppressive Derg regime through fierce struggle. This internal peace has ushered in speedy development. This development in turn has demanded insatiable utilization of domestic resources like hydro power potential.

 Taking in to consideration  Ethiopia’s resolute stand to build dams and boost electrification projects, New African: May, 2013 issue stated that Ethiopia is a possible model for DR Congo’s hydroelectric development.

The Magazine stressed that the Late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi had been driving forward the scheme to electrify the nation and allow the export of thousands of megawatts to neighbors including Egypt, Kenya and both Sudans. The country has eight dams with substantial capacities, such as the 420 MW Gilgel Gibe II and 460 MW Beles schemes and the GERD with 6, 000 MW.

New African noted that further hydro projects are under active consideration in the country. It said ‘’ DR Congo government is too weak ‘’ to deliver, a complete contrast to the Ethiopian government which has managed to get 20 dams working because it is an absolute priority.’’

Earlier the country has harnessed some of its rivers like TisAbay (close to BahirDar town), Gilgel Gibe, Tekezze and Tana Beles. The effort to construct more dams and generate as much electro-dollars as possible is continuing tirelessly. To this end, various feasibility studies are also being conducted on rivers throughout the country.  Currently, vast electrification activity could be witnessed by the construction of Gilgel Gibe-III with over 1870 MW (next to the GERD). Its construction is well underway and expected to be finalized within two years.

Damming Abay and harnessing it to development has been undying quest and enthusiasm of generations for many hundred years. The epiphany comes to respond to this national zeal when the late PM Meles Zenaw (angels rest his soul safely) laid the foundation of the GERD on April 3/2011. People across the country have acclaimed this water shed time in Ethiopian history. The Project has a capacity to generate 6,000 MW when finalized, which some experts equaled it with six medium nuclear reactors.

Craving to its finalization up on scheduled time, thousands of citizens are toiling day and night. People   are encouraging activities by contributing their own financial and technical assistance. In this regard, 23 percent of the construction cost had so far been covered by contribution from the greater public. 

In line with this, while discussing with Ethiopian Diaspora in Canada, Ethiopian Electric and Power Corporation Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Mihret Debebe, said that demand for electric power in the national level is expected to increase by 32 percent in the coming five years. Hence, various far-sighted projects are being carried out across the country to meet this bulky demand; the GERD is among these projects.

The CEO further explained that 24 percent of the construction of the Dam had been finalized so far. He said strenuous efforts are being exerted to finalize 26 percent of the project at the end of this year. Parallel to this, electric power transmission line installation and other mechanical activities are being undertaken.

Similarly, speaking on Nile-related symposium, scholar from Ethiopian Water Resource Institute, Dr. Yilma Sileshi said, once operational, the GERD could generate 2,000,000 Euros every day for  100 years, without reducing its capacity (though pessimists and some  Doubting Thomas guys said it is pie in the sky and too-far-fetched).

He said the Dam could generate countless benefits at home and abroad. For instance, service longevity of Aswan and various dams in Sudan will be enhanced by 100 years. Some 1,000 km of land in Sudan will also be safeguarded from seasonal floods (natural disaster that is used to devastating various Sudanese villages).

According to him, the project could boost the power generation capacity of Sudanese dams by 2657 MW. It will also prevent sedimentation in Egypt and Sudan, and reduce cost of clearing it. In this regard, as to the scholar, the project could save Sudan from expenditure of 15-20 million US dollars that may otherwise be spent to clear sedimentation.

Moreover, he stressed that water reservoirs and and dams could be built in Ethiopian high lands and cooler areas. This by itself could alleviate evaporation problems compared to Aswan dam which is evaporating huge amount of water per annum and wasting the scarcest resource. For instance, storing water in the valleys near Lake Tana of Ethiopia could save 4 billion m3 of water.

Ethiopia has successfully diverted the course of the river to lay the foundation on solid bedrock (one of the indispensable phases for dam construction) on May 28, 2013. Obviously, the diversion is part of indefatigable effort to finalize construction on time. However, it triggered a wave of protest in Egypt, annoyed President Muhammed Mursi’s government and affiliate parties (bon voyage to Mursi who disappeared from limelight due to untimely coup d’état and turmoil since then). Some called it storm in the tea cup for Egypt is gripped with its own burning issue.

Despite very much quirky it sounds, the deposed president, Egyptian brothers and sisters were publicly conspiring against the interest of Ethiopia. These ridiculous and garrulous parties were gabbling ill-bred rhetoric oblivious of live television coverage.

 Most observers assume no other country has ever made such a terrible faux pas on the security and sovereignty of another country (without a granule of remorse of course). Politicians said Egypt should regret this gravest error and ask for pardon when it gets through its national chaos and become constitutional. Pity callous Egypt!!

 Former UN Atomic Agency Head, Muhamed Elbaradai, according to AP, has gone way ahead of all politicians to understand the Faustian debate conducted by Mursi and other Egyptian parties. AP reported that Elbaradai had earnestly begged Mursi to ask pardon from Ethiopia. In fact,  Ethiopians believe that Egypt will one day go rueful, beg Ethiopia for its forgiveness  and strive for cooperation (may be when its political turmoil settles desirably).

Like father like son. No surprise, the current headstrong attitude of Egyptians towards Nile has descended from their inadvertent and truculent leaders like Anwar Sadat. He had once impertinently bragged that ‘’any activity that jeopardize the flow of Nile may lead to war and face stiff resistance from Egypt.’’

It is worth remembering that Ethiopia has defeated the ambitious Egyptian army interested to control the source of Blue Nile more than 16 times since 1830s .The defeat  forced Egypt to change its policy towards Ethiopia (subtly manipulate subversive activities, in a clandestine manner and with impunity).

 This’’ I win if you lose kind of zero-sum game’’ has been wrongly mingled with the ‘’national pride and patriotism ’’ of all Egyptians. They are used to enjoying the lavishing fruits of Nile while Ethiopians (in fact other Nile riparian countries too) are tempted with empty plates (though this unsavory situation is being improved in Ethiopia with time and formidable food security effort).

The "reason” of Egypt to selfishly act towards the equitable use of Nile is based on ‘’prior use, Egypt is the gift of the Nile: no Nile no Egypt, Ethiopia has sufficient rain fall and various alternatives’’, etc, which is all irrational and gratuitous.

The major cause of ‘’problem’’ posing ‘’disagreement’’ between Nile basin countries is linked with unjustifiable utilization of Nile water. Needless to say, Ethiopia contributes the most significant amount of Nile water (86 %). This undeniable reality of Ethiopia has raised noticeable question of justice. The utilization of Nile water is not founded on justifiable accord or conscientious judgment as Egypt and Sudan are using nearly all of the water, contributing little or nothing.

The problem arising on Nile Basin has been exacerbated by intransigence and illogical disregard of Egypt. Accordingly, Egypt has chosen to adhere to defunct colonial treaties and make them as binding as possible; the brazen agreements signed in 1929 and 1959. These agreements had irresponsibly allocated 55.5   and 18.5 billion m3 of Nile waters to only Egypt and Sudan respectively. However, the upper riparian countries have quashed the treaties one way or another.

Egypt, when it comes to equitable utilization of Nile water,   is used to employing disingenuous mechanism of buying time or refusing discussions. A case in point, it does not sign the nascent Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) initiated by Ethiopia. ( NBI is expected to abrogate obsolete treaties enhance justifiable Nile water allocation and strengthen regional integration through regional mega projects.)

Despite this Nile curse and imbroglio created by Egypt, Brahama Chellaney in his recent book, Water, Peace and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis, stated that there is nothing about water wars that is figurative these days; the people in the developing countries are primarily engaged in waging ferocious fights against poverty and are struggling for survival; the situation in Darfur could the best example.

Chellaney, accordingly, calls for transparency, collaboration, and sharing across borders with a view to resolving problems that may arise on water scarcity and inequitable allocation of the stuff. According to him, international initiatives forged by riparian countries should be truly functional as a means of alleviating problems arising from lack of collaboration and reluctance. 

By the same token, speaking on a conference organized to discuss’’ Hydropower for Sustainable Development’’,  Amb. David H. Shin said these obsolete treaties resulted in a virtual Sudanese and Egyptian monopoly of Nile water. Both countries did not invite Ethiopia (indeed other upper riparian countries too) to join negotiations nor did they consult with it.

He said Ethiopia has officially informed Egypt and other riparian countries earlier in 1956 and 1957 that it reserved its right to use Nile water for the benefit of its people. Ethiopia also expressed concern that Sudan and Egypt were making decisions about water that largely originated in Ethiopia.

According to him, the 1959 agreement and others prior to it lacked provision for amendment, duration and mechanism for   solving differences. Legal rights to Nile Basin, like other river basins, are politically controversial, legally obscure and emotionally volatile. Hence, the issue requires careful attention by the concerned parties and the international community to ensure that conflict does not break out.

The Renaissance Dam is for hydro power generation, not for irrigation. It will be filled gradually; He said Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy estimates it will take five to six years to fill the reservoir behind the Dam. This will be done over a long period of time in order to minimize the annual reduction of water reaching Egypt and Sudan while it is being filled. Once the the reservoir is full, the impact on Sudan and Egypt is expected to be minimal.

Because its purpose is hydro power, water will continue flowing through the Dam. There will be some evaporation from the reservoir, but because of the higher altitude, and cooler temperature prevailing at the location of the Dam, the effect will be less than if the Dam had been built in Egypt or Sudan.

The Amb.said while in this part of the world anything is possible, the possibility of the Dam spurring war over water is highly unlikely. To the best of my knowledge, he said, there has never been a major war anywhere exclusively over water. I do not expect this to happen in the case of the construction of the Renaissance Dam except occasional, excessively flamboyant rhetoric.

He sated he believes the former president of Egypt, Anwar Sadat was the first to suggest the possibility of war with Ethiopia over Nile water. Most recently, Egyptian opposition figure Hamdeen  Sababahi  and  sheik Abdel –Akher Hammad of al-Gamaal Islamiya had stroked these fires.

Hamdeen said Egypt could close the Suez Canal to countries China and Italy, which are helping Ethiopia with the construction of the Dam. Up on learning that Ethiopia had began to divert the Nile during the construction process, he said ‘’ we are ready to fight and we will embark on it with all our strength to defend our honor.’’

Amb. Shin has stressed that these kinds of uninformed comments are not helpful. Fortunately, senior Egyptian government officials are more reasoned in their public remarks. Egypt’s Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Bahaa  Eddin recently commented that Cairo  is not opposed to the construction of the Dam so long as it does not impair  Egypt’s interests. He added that the Dam is a regional project designed to benefit Sudan and Egypt, in addition to Ethiopia.

I do not believe the Egyptian government ever lost of the sight of the importance of the Nile water issue, the Amb. said. A political solution is the only solution to the problem. The issue could not be solved militarily. Science can make positive contribution by introducing more effective measures for the use of Nile water resources.

As to him, the easiest solutions are the technical ones, .i.e. those projects that protect Nile Basin, more efficient use of Nile water  in existing irrigation projects, avoidance of massive new projects that inefficiently use large quantities of water, especially for irrigation.

Eventually, however, there must be a political agreement involving all of the riparian states that permits equitable sharing of Nile water while acknowledging that Ethiopia is the source of more than 86 percent of Nile water (95 percent in rainy seasons), has legitimate development right on Nile and Egypt is about 95 percent dependent on Nile water for all of its fresh water needs.

According to Prof. Kinfe: 2007, Egypt’s Foreign Affairs Minister stated that Egypt in principle accepts peaceful and diplomatic means to resolve any problem that could reduce the flow of Nile. However, Egyptian military officials do not have any trust in diplomacy and international pressure. Hence, they believe that they should showcase their military might and support the stand of their government.

He said, however, ‘’if deemed necessary, Egypt has a policy to take military action on its potential enemies’’. As a result, incase anything encroaches on the interest of Egypt including Nile water, military intervention on upper riparian countries is considered as a cost-effective option (ignorant of the terrible backfire on Egypt).

This kind of self-professed military might, the scholar said, and conflict could not lead to cooperation and equitable utilization of Nile water. Rather it could sow seeds of distrust and suspicion between the Nile Basin countries as it does until this century.

Despite the impasse created by Egypt, according to Prof. Kinfe : 2007, upper riparian countries have definitely declared their stand on the issue of Nile. He stressed that these countries like Ethiopia have indubitably stated that they could not surrender to Egypt’s belligerent modus operandi any more.

The colonial treaties signed by the facilitation of Britain have hindered riparian countries from exploiting their natural resources. Hence, they have publicly out cried that they will no more conform to those time-torn colonial rules.

According to him, Ethiopia has underlined the issue of Nile as a fundamental issue to its relation with Egypt. By all accounts, Ethiopia has exposed and discredited the customary attempt of Egypt impeding Ethiopia from harnessing Nile for development. Ethiopia understands the fact that establishment of fruitful ties between the two countries starts from recognizing the previous water treaties as meritless and non-workable to all riparian countries.

The scholar has advised that handling the matter in a diplomatic manner and in a spirit of cooperation is advantageous. Citizens and the government of Ethiopia understand that acceptable treaty and cooperation on Nile is a must. i.e. Ethiopia and other riparian countries have attached prime attention to equitable utilization. 

Similarly, Dr. Yakob Arsano, Scholar in AAU, supports this idea saying that war over water is disadvantageous. This kind of conflict is unprecedented in history. Construction of the GERD has taken in to account the benefit of other riparian countries. Moreover, the impact assessment conducted by team of experts has dispelled allegations of significant impact on the lower riparian countries. Hence, Egypt could not blame and indict Ethiopia because of major impact.

He said the ill-conceived effort of Egypt to prohibit the realization of the project is deplorable. Rhetoric to prevent other countries from utilizing the water has become unacceptable and irrational in this era. As to him, this kind of approach to the problem could not achieve the desired result for it has no support.

Egyptian suspicion over the use of Nile has begun since long long ago. However, he said there is nothing new on the issue of Nile. Egyptians have ample information and know the construction process inside out. In spite of this very fact, Egyptian politicians have embroiled themselves in fruitless rhetoric.

 They are always in an abnormal obsession and unnecessary worry over the issue of Nile. Any port  in the storm. Currently, they are overplaying the issue due to the unstable condition in Egypt and need to defuse anger and divert attention of the people.

In addition, beside threats and aggression, Egypt is using the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and other financial institutions as its trump card to inhibit hydro projects in Ethiopia.  As agents of putting the squeeze on the interest of Ethiopia and impeding its development, Egyptian citizens assigned in higher positions like UN were also Trojan horses of this heinous act.

Following Egyptian conspiracy against the GERD, Ugandan President, Yuweri Museveni, had forwarded his criticism that Egyptian officials should refrain from their hubris. He said that no African is interested to inflict damage on Egypt. Likewise, Egypt should no more continue wringing Nile advantage from the hands of black Africans.

He acrimoniously lambasted Egypt that it should not repeat the errors committed by its former leaders. Museveni capitalized on the fact that upper basin countries could not condone Egypt’s wrong act and threats any longer. He noted that time has changed since African emancipation from colonization. The President has also warned Egypt that Uganda will stand by the side of Ethiopia if Egypt commits any harmful act beyond rhetoric.

Similarly, Egyptian General, Muhamed Ali Bilal , while briefing a station called AlArabia  on May 29, 2013  said the belligerent and bigotry attitude of Egypt has been eroded with time. He said any harmful act on the the Dam may cause a problem at an international level and it is impossible. According to him, any act of provocation may lead to conflict with foreign countries like China and Israel whose nationals are participating in the construction, where Egypt has no power to resist any backlash from these countries.

Bilal said international agreement has been reached on the fact that Ethiopia could build the Dam. He said America has assisted in the formulation of construction design and Israel is providing technical assistance. According to him, diplomatic means of resolving the problem should be taken as a primary means to break the deadlock. However, no matter how floundering the case appears, he suggested submitting the case to the International Court (while ostrich Egypt has not a shred of evidence and legal ground to halt the project being undertaken by innocent and robust Ethiopia).

Al-Ahram, weekly news paper of Egypt, had also published that the current situation in Ethiopia related to Egypt is positive and friendly. In this regard, Ethiopian mass media is presenting daily news related to Egypt. Ethiopian officials are also interested to resolve problems peacefully. They are expressing cordial wish to Egypt that it may soon ride out of its chaos and resolve problems in a civil manner, the paper stressed.

It also said that Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister, Tewodros Adhanom is interested to negotiate with Egypt and resolve existing problems peacefully. It said that the minister is willing to hold discussion on problems without the facilitation of any other third party.

Cognizant of the importance of peace and stability, Al-Ahram stated, PM Haile-Mariam Dessalegn has said that Ethiopia will provide unreserved assistance to strengthen peace and stability in Egypt. According to him, any instability in Egypt may pose instability to the region and the continent as a whole. Hence, it pays to support efforts of peace and stability in Egypt.

According to the news paper, Haile-Mariam said Egypt is among countries that has a special place in Africa. It had played significant roles in Africa earlier and it should resume this constrictive role. Ethiopia believes Egypt will soon overcome its problems become constitutional and reemerge as one of the best actors of Africa.

No matter how challenging internal and external problems are, Ethiopian history is emblazoned with friendly neighborhood unlike Egypt’s enmity modus operandi. As witnessed by history, Ethiopians raise their arms only when   an aggressor comes to violate their sovereignty and intrude in to their territory.

 Earlier, Ethiopia not only defeated colonizers like Italy and became the beacon of freedom to black people all over the world but also it boldly participated in various peace-keeping missions requested by the United Nations (UN). In this regard, it had sent its gallant troops known as Kagnaw Battalion to North Korea in 1950s. The troops were so daring and disciplined that nobody was missed and captured unlike troops of other countries.

These days, as part of Ethiopia’s unflinching effort to peace, Ethiopian army is participating in various peace keeping missions across Africa, be it in Liberia, Rwanda or recently in Somalia. All missions are concrete evidences testified by UN that Ethiopia is interested to further peace and stability in Africa and establish peaceful co-existence between all countries.

Peaceful-co-existence, cooperation and mutual benefit is the centerpiece of Ethiopia’s foreign policy. Based on this cornerstone, Ethiopia is striving to build peaceful co-existence and friendly relation with all countries including Egypt. Accordingly, Ethiopia is consciously observing activities going on in Egypt. It believes unceasing turmoil in Egypt may negatively influence situations on the horn of Africa and the world.

Ethiopia and Egypt have started historical relation from time immemorial. This has been witnessed by people to people and trade relation of the two countries during the heyday of Axumit civilization in Ethiopia and its Pharaonic counterpart in Egypt. Ethiopia believes that the time has come for both countries to resolve their feud over Nile, rejuvenate their historical relation and make Nile source of regional integration.

Let bygones be bygones. Egyptian politicians should change their stubborn stand towards the project and further cooperation to enhance mutual benefit of the two countries. They should not become blind to the truth that the Renaissance Dam is being built only for the purpose of power generation.

 Its national goal is eradication of poverty through large sale electrification project used for domestic consumption and export purposes as well. Accordingly, causing significant impact on lower Nile riparian countries, as ruled out by the team of experts, is not its aim having Ethiopian peaceful co-existence policy at hand.

 Ethiopia is stressing on the issue that Nile could not be bone of contention. Besides, practical lessons learnt from other countries that share trans-boundary rivers showcases that war over river basins is unlikely. On account of this, Nile Basin countries should solve their problem peacefully.

In this regard, nation is adamantly capitalizing on the importance of cooperation and negotiation. It is stating that modus vivendi is the way out of Nile impasse. Egypt should understand the fact that Ethiopia and its people are on the road to Damascus and nothing could hinder this journey.

 Enhancing its commitment as a driving force, Ethiopia will unflinchingly continue to exerting strenuous effort to finalize GERD and other projects. It will leave no stone unturned, faute de mieux, to mitigate poverty and change its defaming history. It is firmly defying all obstacles of anti-Ethiopia forces at home and abroad to finalize its projects and realize poverty alleviation dream.

The construction of the Dam is well under progress. Parallel to enhancing economic development, finalization of the project is thought to absolutely change the geo-politics and hydro-politics balance of the region in favor of Ethiopia (breaking hostile attitude of rivals thickened and entrenched for centuries).

Our father had passed away some years ago before the commencement of the Dam. He would have been ecstatic were he had been alive to see the project. However, his anger on lack of power to harness Abay has now been eased. This vibrant and emerging nation is constructing a big Dam over Abay.

My brother is contributing his own to the project. I saw him dutifully shuttling between the construction site and Addis Ababa. He knows it is time to live duty-bound life and discharge his responsibility properly.  He believes he is lucky to leave his legacy in the immortal statue being erected by the country. Once he had told me that he and his work-mates are exerting an all out effort seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

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