The Musings of a Former Diplomat .

March 7, 2011

The Period we are passing through is indeed different; for sure it is not boring. This is not simply because of what we have been witnessing in North Africa and the Arab world, though that in itself makes the time we are in, uniquely different.

The period we are in is a period of fundamental changes, not simply of regional and sub-regional importance. The changes are of world significance and at that level, no doubt, the whole economic and security architecture of the post-world war II period appears to be in the process of radical reordering. Many would go even further, with a lot of justification, that the changes underway represent a far greater historical sweep as the shift of power from West to East reverses a trend that has been underway for centuries. Ethiopians should look at this phenomenon closely and seriously, and going a little bit beyond narrowly defined parochial interests, including personal interests advanced in a cheap way through resort to vitriol in cyberspace.

Undeniably, Africa is also changing, and that is not entirely unrelated to what is going on at the global level. At least, one must admit that the last decade has shown that indeed Africa can change, and change for the better. For sure, at the minimum, Africa is no longer as marginalized as many had thought in the 80s and during the good part of the 90s that this was an ineluctable fate of the continent.

Perhaps, there is even greater validity to what many have begun to observe about Ethiopia __This ancient country is on the move. At no time during its entire modern history has Ethiopia made the kind of stride in economic development that it has been making over the last decade or so. These are not ordinary times for Ethiopia. That is not being said by a stooge of the EPRDF Government. It is being said by third parties and many of them not all that fond of the current Ethiopian Government. But these parties have no options other than confirming the truth because that is in fact what the empirical facts on the ground show, and saying any less would be a little less than civilized. Accordingly, the Economist, no fan of the Meles Government, has to validate, not only what Ethiopia has already achieved, but in advance, what it is slated to achieve in the years ahead.

Thus, at the minimum, Ethiopians should agree that the country appears to be poised to take off, and if we use all our assets wisely and properly, perhaps, as the Government has proclaimed in its five year Growth and Transformation Plan, the country could join the group of middle income countries in less than two decades or so. At the minimum, let us agree, this is no longer a dream. Look at the kinds of changes underway in the country as this is being penned. Now, this is not limited to Addis Ababa. What is unique about the transformation underway in Ethiopia is that it is not solely an urban phenomenon; it is a process that has become contagious, affecting all sections of the country, rural and urban, from Benshangul to the Somali Region. There is no iota of hyperbole here. The country is on the move.

Now, how about these changes taking place in North Africa and embracing many in the Arab world? No doubt, the democratic cravings of the people on top of the confluence of many other factors, economic and social, and let us not forget also, those factors that are political in nature unique to the Arab world and perhaps also related to some issues that the West does not even dare to contemplated, might be behind these upheavals. Thus, no doubt, the changes underway in the Arab world are fundamental, and some of the potential trajectories of the changes, could be earth-shaking. But at this point, as far as Ethiopia is concerned, there is really nothing to gloat over, for what we can see at this point is only potential possibilities, and perhaps, in the short-term, with respect to the nefarious activities of some like Kaddafi and others, a brief respite for our country. That the ongoing upheavals have aborted many plots against Ethiopia, at least for now, is undeniable. Otherwise, the only sure thing about the possible outcome of these changes might be the end of docility or what appeared to be such to many in the Arab world. The rest is a tossup. Where might Yemen be heading? There are such conundrums. Humility is in order; vigilance is called for lest the historical opportunities now opening up for Ethiopia are squandered.

Now, to the real musings of the diplomat and the reason for this scribbling.

No country in Africa, including Ethiopia, South Africa and others, are immune to the kind of upheaval now convulsing nearly all countries in the Arab world. By the way, given everything equal, most particularly in the way the media operates and political debates are conducted, not many in the developed world would, mutatis mutandis, be immune, to the types of upheavals now affecting the Arab world. There are no shortages of grievances in most countries, including in the most advanced. What makes societies different, excluding those that are beyond the pale, is the way grievances are handled (or mishandled but made innocuous) and managed and a peaceful avenue is sought for resolving societal tensions, including those that are the product of poverty, economic dislocation and other societal problems.

Is today the time for Ethiopians to long for the kind of upheavals now convulsing many in the Arab world? A few combatants of the cyberspace seem to think so; and some, who lambaste the Government for being undemocratic, even do it from Addis Ababa. It must be difficult for many, as it is to me, to believe that these are prompted by patriotic impulses and driven by commitments to democratic values, and by love for the common man.

This appears to be a period when Ethiopians, despite all their problems, should hold their heads high. If there were times when patriotic, Ethiopians felt hopeless, this cannot be one of those periods. By the way, any person who has some contact with actors within the international community must have observed quite quickly that, the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Melese Zenawi, the bète noire of some in the cyberspaces, has in fact become a brand name for Ethiopia, gaining, not less, but more respect, for the country. I will go even further - no one in the modern history of the country has been a better brand name for the country __ for development, not war__ than Meles has been in recent days.

At no time in its modern history has the country been as democratic as it’s is today, and within Africa it must be considered one of the countries that has made the most substantial progress in this area in recent years.

Is there no need for doing even more in both areas__ in economic development and democratic governance and the rule of law? Much, much needs to be done, and some of our shortcomings are in fact irritating. But that the country is in the right trajectory and that the EPRDF Government deserves more commendation than damnation must be seen to be fair, and that level of objectivity must not only be expected from patriotic and democratically inclined Ethiopians, but also demanded from them.

There is nothing inevitable with respect to progress that societies make. Subjective interventions are critical in all this. The most appropriate is not always the most popular. It is not infrequently that courses of action that prove eventually to be the wisest had to overcome impossible odds during inception and during their fledgling stage. What would have happened to china with a population of 1.3 billion, if the country had imploded in 1989, a possibility that could not have been ruled out at the time? Would the China of today have been possible? Doubtful. Many still regret the opposite did not happen. But that is another story.

What Ethiopia needs at the moment and in the following years and decades is men and women of humility, patriots who have confidence in the capacity of Ethiopians to catapult this ancient country into an irreversible trajectory of sustainable development and democratic transformation. I have finished __for now.
Ted A.
March 07, 2011