Forget
the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China.); Meet the PINEs (Philippines,
Indonesia, Nigeria and Ethiopia.)
By: Michael Schuman, TIME 2014/3/13
While many
emerging markets are taking a beating, a fantastic growth story in the
developing world is widening and drawing in new countries.
Emerging markets
are taking a beating these days, most of all the famous BRIC economies —
Brazil, Russia, India and China. These four once seemed poised to dominate a
post-American world. Not anymore. Brazil and India are posting growth rates
that are only a fraction of what they were a couple of years ago. Russia’s
prospects, already hampered by an overbearing state, are unlikely to improve as
its aggressive moves into Ukraine could force Europe and the U.S. to impose
economic sanctions. Even mighty China, while still notching admirable growth,
must confront rising debt and a distorted financial system. The supremacy of
the emerging world suddenly seems very far off.
But look past these headline grabbers, and you’ll find other
emerging economies continuing to show economic strength. So for now, forget the
BRICs; take a look at the PINEs. The PINE economies are the Philippines,
Indonesia, Nigeria and Ethiopia. I have to confess I made up this acronym, and
I fear it isn’t quite as catchy as BRIC. But I’m trying to make a point here.
What the PINEs represent is something very important for the future of the
global economy and quest to alleviate poverty. The PINEs are all performing
very well right now, and that shows that the advance of emerging economies is
far from over. In fact, the fantastic growth story in the developing world is
widening and deepening, drawing in countries and regions that had previously
been left out.
Take, for
instance, the Philippines. When most of East Asia emerged from colonial rule
after World War II, the Philippines was considered one of the new countries
with the greatest potential for development. Sadly, things didn’t turn out that
way. As much of the rest of East Asia zoomed ahead on its economic miracle, the
Philippines got left behind. Millions of Filipinos were forced to search for
jobs around the world, creating a Diaspora from Hong Kong to Dubai. Now,
though, the Philippines have become one of the region’s best performers. Even
after getting smashed by Typhoon Haiyan last year, GDP still surged by 7.2%,
and the IMF expects the country to post similar rates over the next several
years.
Indonesia has
staged a comeback as well. Though the Southeast Asian giant had been a strong
performer in the past (during the early 1990s, for instance), political
upheaval and regional conflicts scared off investors, especially after its 1997
financial crisis. But now Indonesia has returned to the ranks of the world’s
most desirable emerging economies, thanks to a stable democracy and a
burgeoning consumer market. Foreign direct investment increased a hefty 17%
last year. Though the stampede from emerging markets after the U.S. Federal
Reserve signaled it would scale back its stimulus efforts pummeled the
country’s currency, and growth dipped a bit last year, the economy is still
forecast to growth at about 6% annually over the next several years.
The strong performances of Nigeria and Ethiopia are even
more exciting. Africa generally stood on the sidelines while Asia and other
parts of the developing world experienced giant gains in welfare over the past
half-century, but now, finally, the continent seems to be joining the party.
Nigeria is the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa and has long been seen as
a potential economic heavyweight, and now that a more stable government is
implementing some much needed reform, investors are flocking into the nation. Ethiopia
may be even more exciting. Once synonymous with poverty, peace and strong
economic management have turned the nation around. The International Monetary
Fund sees growth in the 7% range in the coming years for both countries, and
there’s even talk of a group of “lion economies” rising up in the same way the
“tigers” of Asia did in the late 20th century.
There are, of course, risks that these countries will
falter, if politics or corruption gets in the way. And though the advance of
the PINEs may not have the same global impact as the BRICs — China and India
are so big they’re in a class by themselves — the PINEs still represent a major
opportunity for international companies to invest, expand and find new
customers. The PINEs, after all, have a combined population of about 600
million people. So don’t be too quick to dismiss the emerging-markets story.
The meek may yet inherit the world.