ETHIOPIAN ELECTIONS MAY 2010: THE WAY FORWARD

 

                                                                                             

 

Michael Mered PhD [1]

May 28, 2010

 

Ethiopia held national elections on May 23, 2010 for the House of Peoples’ Representatives and the State Councils. The turnout was high and the election process was peaceful and orderly. Preliminary results indicate that The Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has won the election by a wide margin across the country. Ethiopians in the thousands have sacrificed their lives in pursuit of democracy, justice, and development—their sacrifice has not been in vain [2]. Ethiopians must now look to the future to strengthen and build on what has been achieved as much more remains to be done.

 

The national elections of May 2010 was a remarkable achievement showing the rest of the world that Ethiopia has the capacity of conducting properly organized free elections. Quoting from the European Union election observation team preliminary report of May 25, 2010 (EU-EOM), “….The Ethiopian legal framework appears to provide an adequate basis for the conduct of genuine elections…..”; the team also declared “the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has administered the electoral process in an efficient and competent manner overcoming significant technical challenges…”. Obviously, it was not a perfect election – perfect elections do not exist even in countries where democratic elections have been conducted for decades.

 

Some may even criticize the unusually wide margin of victory by the EPRDF. However, this can be explained and should not detract from the integrity of the election. First, the EPRDF in the past five years has delivered unprecedented double digit increases in economic growth and has managed to cut inflation down to around 7 percent by end 2009. Even more importantly, Ethiopia today is well on track to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals by 2015, indicating significant improvements in the social indicators, particularly related to education and health. Second, the EPRDF, after nearly losing the election in 2005, has done its homework; it has closely consulted with the electorate, reviewed its strengths and weaknesses, and amended these accordingly. As the Prime Minister noted at his latest press conference, it has also recruited some 5 million new members who have been unleashed to deliver the message of development and peace to the voters. The opposition’s membership drive does not even come close. Third, given the track record, voters most likely wanted to deliver a clear message to the opposition by showing their impatience with the infighting and self centered attitudes – for example, one indication is that none of the prominent political opposition leaders won a seat in the Peoples’ House of Representatives. In this context, EPRDF’s landslide victory is not surprising; political parties in democratic countries like Japan and Mexico have ruled for decades with large majorities – but they have delivered sustained economic growth and good governance to their electorates.

 

Hence, notwithstanding, the EU-EOM preliminary report should be viewed as a clear endorsement of the Ethiopian national election of May 23, 2010. As judged by the report, the NEBE has done its job and delivered an organized properly conducted free election in which a large percentage of 32 million registered voters participated.

 

·       The EU-EOM report states, the electoral process has been administered in a professional manner, and quoting the report, “the secrecy of the vote was respected despite isolated irregularities…”. This statement essentially means that the secret ballot was valid across the election process. Hence, the voters’ right to privacy has been respected and none of the contenders, including the ruling party, has any way of knowing who voted how. Also, the EPRDF has repeatedly stated publicly and has instructed party members in its “New Vision” party journal articles that voters must be allowed to freely exercise their democratic rights. However, even if there has been sporadic intimidation and harassment by over zealous EPRDF campaigners, clearly, logic should dictate that no amount of intimidation can dissuade or persuade the voter as long as the secret ballot process is respected and implemented across the board.

 

·       While the EU-EOM report commends the NEBE for overcoming significant technical challenges, despite limited resources, regarding the election process, it also points out to the lack of complete polling station lists affecting the transparency process. With around 32 million registered voters, an unprecedented turnout, and a very high number of polling stations to convenience the voters, surely some irregularities are bound to happen. The important issue is the intent of the NEBE and the Government to conduct free and fair elections. Election irregularities occur in the most advanced countries in the world. The 2000 election in the United States is a case in point – however, no one seriously claims that the US election was undemocratic.

 

·       The EU-EOM report also alleges that “state resources may have been used for ruling party campaign activities”. The EPRDF has been accused of having its own financial resources, if this is accurate, and if numerous private sector businesses have contributed to the party’s campaign (as has been reported), it would not make much political sense for the party to make use of state resources. I would think, under these circumstances, prudence is the order of the day and we should not underestimate the EPRDF in this regard. Nonetheless, the advantages of incumbency are clear not only in Ethiopia but also in many democratic countries. In the United States “pork barrel” politics has always been part of the election process. This, however, does not necessarily invalidate democratic elections as long as the secret ballot is enforced-- it has clearly been enforced in this election.

 

·       As for the criticism of a “….lack of a level playing field for all contesting parties”, the EU-EOM report, at the same time, states that “….a generous amount of free airtime (media) was distributed proportionately to the different parties”. So clearly, the report must have been objecting to the so called narrowing of the “political space”; but, this is from the perspective of the European Union and the United States. This point of disagreement between the western countries and Ethiopia having nothing to do with how the elections have been conducted; simply speaking this is a policy issue. The principle of non-interference by foreigners in national elections is a well accepted practice in the United States and other democratic countries for obvious reasons. Ethiopia’s opposition parties and NGOs active in the political field should not be unduly influenced by foreigners who may have a separate agenda—financing can be a major source of influence. If the opposition parties have a well defined program of governance and are able to successfully present and defend this program to their constituencies, domestic financing should not be a problem (for example, recently a development NGO collected close to USD 100 million from private domestic sources).

 

Clearly, Ethiopians are on the right track of introducing a democratic culture where there was none previously. The Ethiopian Diaspora and the Donor Community could usefully encourage Ethiopians as they build their nation-state on strong solid foundations of peace and democracy; but if they choose not to they will be marginalized, for this movement is irreversible. As for the EPRDF and the opposition parties, these should heed the clear signals given by the Ethiopian electorate and should strive to meet the challenges of the coming 5 years – peace, development, and the continued strengthening of democratic institutions.

 

Thank You

 

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[1] Comments are welcome to mered_michael@yahoo.com .

[2] Today May 28, 2010 is the day when Ethiopians celebrate the 19th anniversary of the victory over the notoriously repressive Derg regime and remember the martyrs who sacrificed their lives for freedom and democracy.