Egypt, The ”arab Spring” and Future Prospects For Sub-Saharan Africa
The Ethiopian government have to explore all the venues both concerning and in particular the exploitation of it's natural resources like crude oil and natural gas as well as pushing an ever intensive diplomatic campaign by presenting facts to neglect Egypt of its hidden and direct agenda aganist many Nations in an attempt to destabilise the region and su-region
To begin with concerning Ethiopia's interest: Why is it that at first it was reported that the crude oil finding in Kenya extends all the way to Southern Ethiopia and now there is an absolute silence on the question?
We all know that the interest of the U.S.A in the Middle East and the Arab part of the world is wanning also becausea according to the International Energy Agency over the coming five years, the US will change from the world’s leading importer of oil to a net exporter, as it will account for a third of new oil supplies in the world.
I don't want my oppinion to be missunderstood and dubed as a dellusional. But in my personal oppinion if the British company is not going to come with a possetive result then in my oppinion Ethiopia must concider to give the sector to China or to a joint Chinise, Indian, Brasilian and Indian companies.
What concerns Egypts age old rhetoric about destabilising Ethiopia and even go to war is not in my opinion supported by the actual facts of the present day reality.
The “Arab Spring” is not the simple vision of emerging democracy that the US supported and thought it was. Egypt is more and more chaotic and that Egypt is tanggled in fundamentalists debates, and an ever growing and stregthning dissatisfaction with the opposition; with the population fighting for religous freedom and the police force and the millitary.
Furthermore, the strategic focus of the US is moving eastward for three main reasons: One, to impair China’s strategic ability to manoeuvre and avert any attempts to achieve regional dominance; Two, to curb North Korea; and to benefit from the growing economy of the Asian-Pacific.
It is absolutely justified that fror the US Congress, Egypt’s new Islamist government remains unknown and unpredictable where Osama Bin-Ladins number two Ayman Al Zawahri who was a very active member of the Islamic brother hood (today for tactical reasons the Islamic brother hood that renamed itself as the so called Freedom and Justice Party and from where the President of Egypt Morsi has emerged from. By the way Ayman Al Zawahri it seems is a de facto number one leader of al Quida in the world today also lately giving an order to the Iraq's Shias not to fight for Al Assad's regime.
If the choice is left to the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) it will rather prefere the idiological principles, dreams and aspirations of the Islamic brotherhood modus operande than to respect human and religeous right and freedom and to reach a new modus vivendi both with its citizens as well as with it's neighbours and Nile Basin Countries in particular.
Unlike in previous decades America's interest in the the endless turbulent times in the Arab part of the world (and not as it is mistakingly named as the Arab world: The World is not and don't belong to Arabs) is wanning not only because most of the Arab countries including Egypt are unwilling to fully and unconditionally cooperate with the U.S.A, a good example is the attack on the U.S.A's Embassy in Cairo followed by burning of the U.S flug and replacing it with a black fundamentalist Islamic flag while the police force was standing idle and doing nothing regardless the act was temporary or not. Because an attack on an Embassy of any country is concidered ass an attack on the country it represents.
It is both visionary and justified that the US Congress clearly stands firm against any potential move by the US administration when it comes to AID and billions of dollars of loan not only because the Islamist government and party do not have any plans for development but mainly because of its double standards and its unpredictablity.
It is worth remembering that during one of his speech, the Egyptian President Morsi vividly took the opportunity to define Egypt’s foreign policy priorities as follows: The Nile, Syria, and stopping the “Jewification” of Jerusalem. The nature of Egypt’s new enemies: Christian Africans, Non-Sunni Muslims etc..etc..
Ethiopia must be engaged in a very active shuttrle diplomacy with the sisterly countries of the Nile Basin countries for the immidiate ratification of the Cooperative Framework Agreement and strengthen biliteral and multilateral ties in all fields possible with our sub-Saharan African countries.
Ethiopia must send high profile deligates to the U.S.A both to discuss and find solutions with the President of the U.S.A and the U.S Congress and Senate for a more affirmative action aganist the Islamist regime led by Mr Morsi including his appeal concerning the $4.8 billion U.S dollars with no economic plan for Egypt since the U.S.A is having a majority vote in IMF. And finally request the U.S President, The Congress and Senate so that American weapons will not be used aganist Ethiopia
Ethiopia must also be engaged with European leaders concerning not only the IMF loan where as already mentioned Egyptian Islamist leaders do not even have any plan for the economic development of Egypt. And also Ethiopia must send a deligation to Germany to discuss issues concerning the dicission of Germany to sell a destroyer Submarine (nuclear??)
Markos Lemma MD
June 22, 2013