The Beginning of Transformation?

Getachew Mequanent

Oct 11, 2010

Allow me please to start by noting two things. On behalf of the Ethiopian Diaspora, I would like to thank Ethiopian government officials and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi himself, for facilitating the release of Birtukan Medeksa. In case Birtukan wants to get involved in politics again, she is advised to be careful. There is a complex world beyond her Kebele in Addis Ababa and it takes self-discipline, experience and strategic thinking to deal with that world.

It is a coincidence that Idal Isaw just posted a piece here on Aiga Forum criticizing my call for a peaceful engagement with Eritrea. The fact could be that the issues that I raised (state failure and potential consequences) might have already been analyzed by Ethiopian government intelligence units and policy analysts. Prime Minister Meles and one or two of his ministers lead global initiatives and they better be seen as leaders of a peacemaking nation. Perhaps my friend Idal may join me and many other Ethiopians and Eritreans to preach peace.His arguments also appear more an expression of his frustration with a regime in Asmara rather than a response to my advocacy for peace.

My friends, what do we say about what has been going on inside EPRDF? Have our expectations been met (at least from a Diaspora perspective)? Is this the beginning of transformation of the Ethiopian ruling party and state apparatus? I try to take up these issues below.

Many would agree that EPRDF has emerged as formidable multi-ethnic party that is poised to rule for another decade and more. To say “forget the opposition” does not matter anymore, as there is a sense of total hopelessness in the opposition camp. The role of those in the Diaspora opposition camp has been reduced to organizing protests against Ethiopian government leaders (to the disgust of the Ethiopian public back home). But, to say that at least some of the opposition groups will learn from EPRDF (policy focus, inclusion, discipline, internal democracy, etc.) and they will gradually match EPRDF, will be an expression of hope. We may be stuck with EPRDF for a long time.

Leadership changes within EPRDF started during the recent congresses of EPRDF member parties. Some among the old guard left (voluntarily or voted out) and new people were brought in. Given public knowledge, the ways those party congresses were conducted were as democratic as they could get.

The next phase was the appointment of cabinet members to form the new government which rules Ethiopia for the next five years. In line with universal political traditions, this business of selecting cabinet members was conducted secretly (at least to my knowledge). So, please take the criteria outlined below as my own imagination of how things were done:

• Loyalty. If you are loyal to party bosses, you got considered for cabinet appointment. End of story.

• Competence. The CVs of ministers look good. Certainly Sufian Amhed has done a good job. Tefera Deribew was admired and respected by members of the Amhara region civil service. Demeke Mekonen has introduced measures to improve the quality of education. Tewodros Adahnom also did a good job and got international visibility. Abadulla Gemeda may be underused as speaker of the house and could have got a ministerial position. Just as an example.

• Regional representation. There is already a verdict that power has shifted from the North to the South, whether this means a reward for over 60 nations and nationalities to stick together (in unity) or a gesture to correct historical injustices.

• Gender representation. Aiga Forum wrote an editorial on this issue saying “we don’t get it”. Only two female cabinet members will be way below the standard of 21st century African politics.

• “Personal suitability” . Unless you are able to work with Meles (if you disagree with him often), forget about getting a ministerial appointment. This is a reality elsewhere.

• New faces. There are many new faces and we will see how this will help to create a branded party image. Previously the intellectual and ideological defiance of people like Meles Zenawi and Bereket Simon was compensated by the benign and soft-spoken style of people like Seyoum Mesfin and Addisu Legesse. It will be interesting to see both the hard and soft side of EPRDF.

• Values and ideology. EPRDF remains suspicious of the urban middle class that remains preoccupied with showing off its status and wealth while sympathizing little with the plights of labouring poor masses. Need to retain people who furiously defend party ideology.

• Correcting historical injustices. For nearly a century, the mahal sefaris ran the state like their own private property claiming lineage ties to every region of Ethiopia to legitimizing their power. What this did was marginalize not only minority nations and nationalities, but also historically powerful regions in the North. Today the expectation is that historical injustices need to be addressed. Yet, this must be done based on mutual understanding and fairness. There has been an upsurge of support for EPRDF in the Amhara region, in part because of the popularity of Ayalew Gobeze and other leaders. EPRDF must respond by acknowledging the leadership aspirations of this region.

These are just examples with which you may or may not agree. Overall, EPRDF looks good and ready to get to work.

All this can also be the beginning of transformation of not only EPRDF, but the entire Ethiopian state apparatus. EPRDF has to yet create a cultural of bottom-up participation. Local and Woreda level oversight structures need to be strengthen to control the behaviour of party officials. Junedin Sado and Muktar Kedir have tough times ahead as they try to democratize the state bureaucracy, make government business more open and transparent and mobilize public participation. Federal departments must be decentralized to Zonal levels, as appropriate, to improve services and efficiency. Front-line government workers, especially those who work in rural areas, must have adequate material and organizational support and provided with incentive structures. But, I think the real atmosphere of excitement will be during time nearing Meles’ hand over of power to his successor. Competitions and backroom dealings could be apparent or are already happening. At the end of the day political realism should prevail, which is accepting the promotion of the “common good” as a criterion for the selection of the next prime minister.
Ottawa, Canada