A Commentary on the 2010 Ethiopian Election

There is more democracy in Ethiopia than in communist China whose authoritarian leaders are admired and respected by citizens and foreigners alike, because of their collective abilities to manage economic growth. It just happens that Ethiopia is a recipient of foreign aid and this allows foreigners to have a say in what the country has and has not accomplished.

There are three things that we should know about foreign election observers. First, they have their own standards, which then mean that the May 23 election in Ethiopia would have been conduct in the same way as the recent election in Britain. Second, they have no adequate knowledge of country situations except official briefs and literature sources. Hence, they may underestimate the gravity of problems when developing nations like Ethiopia hold competitive elections. For example, if some of the EPRDF local officials in remote areas have harassed and intimidated opposition supporters, this must be seen as a direct consequence of lack of strong culture of competitive democracy in Ethiopian society. I cannot tell you what could have been done to control the behaviour of these officials amid a situation when emotions run high. Finally, foreign observers are required to report what they see and hear from all sources, reliable or not.

All this is to say that there is no need for EPRDF officials to be too sensitive to criticism on last week’s national election. I actually feel that the EU preliminary report is not bad. It basically identifies both logistical and political problems like destruction of campaign material (by all parties), no timely registration in some areas, lack of organizational support, lack of proper voter verification, lack of funds, strategic advantages by EPRDF, lack of civil society role, all the challenges confronted by any developing country experimenting electoral democracy. Overall, the EU election observers, the US and others call upon the ruling party EPRDF to ensure that these problems do not happen in the future. In my view, the whole notion about lack of “equal level playing field” is in large part meant to show sympathy for the opposition which almost got wiped out from the Ethiopian political map. There are Ethiopians who voted for the opposition and election observers assume that, under a different (conducive) circumstance, more Ethiopians would have voted to give the opposition more seats. Practical or not, they are justified to make this assumption, especially when they have received information on the harassment and intimidation of opposition supporters. Otherwise, analysts had concluded long before the election that EPRDF was poised to win, although they did not anticipate this kind of sweeping victory, especially in opposition stronghold Addis Ababa. So, please, just respond to critics by saying “thank you. We appreciate your concerns. We will address them”. Do not go after them.

I would like to see the EU, US and others holding the Ethiopian opposition accountable for the outcome of the 2010 election. In the past five years, the opposition parties have been butchering and destroying one another because of greed and leadership incompetence. Their supporters remained preoccupied with using modern communication technologies to spread messages worldwide that the regime in Ethiopia was bad. Mesfin Wolde Mariam led gangsters to try to occupy party headquarters, leading to a physical confrontation by another gangster group, police intervention, all this just weeks before the election, in doing so, destroying the party created by the young Birtukan Medeksa. Others, especially those in Medrek, remained preoccupied with backward looking politics and entertaining the vocal Diaspora, instead of focusing on bread and butter issues. These are just examples. The EU, US and others will do no good for Ethiopian society by not telling the Ethiopian opposition to behave like responsible opposition. Nor do they help the opposition parties by encouraging those old guard elites to hang around the Ethiopian political arena. The Ethiopian opposition needs fresh blood.

Under “Africa Have Your Say” program, the BBC online edition of May 27, 2010, asks, “Are elections working in Africa?” The BBC makes a problem statement that “elections in both Ethiopia and Burundi are being heavily criticised and re-runs of both have been called for by opposition leaders. But are opposition parties putting enough effort into campaigning? There is a trend of opposition parties crying foul and calling for re runs after elections. Is this becoming their role or are elections genuinely not working across the continent?” Perhaps the BBC could have added whether opposition leaders in Africa have the interest of the African people at heart or they are just power hungry maniacs.

I am disappointed with how things turned out for the energetic Lidetu Ayalew. Even then, the most memorable teams during world football championships are not those who won, but those who played well. Lidetu played politics very well and gave Ethiopian opposition politics dignity and meaning. It is for this reason that we congratulate him for his outstanding effort to shape Ethiopian politics in the past five years. Suggest Lidetu gets appointed as an ambassador, a head of public agency or even a minister. EPRDF would look good by doing this.

Since 2005, EPRDF has been recruiting and training millions of party members. In Gondar, I was told that these members organized and led self-help activities such as organizing help for single women and elderly. They would proudly agitated people to vote for EPRDF.

The second factor in EPRDF’s landslide victory is an increase in the number of educated population, because of the opening of more and more universities and other higher institutions of learning. Ethiopian educated elites now represent every corner of the country and every segment of society. This has led to the decentralization of knowledge of public policy issues and allowed the people in different regions of Ethiopia to reflect on their particular interests and aspirations when they vote (economics, man!). Moreover, current educated elites follow democratic political and policy debates worldwide on BBC, CNN, Aljazeera and other international media. They rate the performance of the Ethiopian opposition against what they hear and observe at international level. Meanwhile, the old guard elites that dominate opposition parties remained clinging to their traditional/feudal view of an Ethiopian society as a composition of illiterate and ignorant population that should follow political demagogues without asking questions. Well, the educated elites had questions, but opposition politicians devoted most of their time to lobbying foreigners and soliciting the support of Diaspora groups. They paid the price.

Third, tens of millions of voting Ethiopians grew up under EPRDF. They are different from us in their worldviews. For example, they are more self-conscious of Ethiopia’s linguistic and cultural diversity and more willing to adopt individualistic values that allow material advancement. They do not care whether Eritrea was part of Ethiopia, so that for them Eritrea is a foreign country and Eritreans are foreigners. They are not inspired by the old folk’s political rhetoric (one-history, one-language, unity, Red Sea port, extra). They want jobs to earn livelihoods. As much as they might have a desire to see regime change, the alternatives to EPRDF were not there.

Finally, Ethiopians have matured politically. All social classes in Addis Ababa - the working class, middle class, merchant class, civil service, the poor, etc - did not think opposition parties are capable of delivering results in terms of economic growth, social services, infrastructure, political stability and public security. The triumph of EPRDF in Addis was evidently driven by this reality. One cannot suspect EPRDF cadres overrunning polling stations in Addis Ababa to steal votes in front of the international media, diplomats and observers. I therefore regret that Tecola Hagos wrote that Addis folks are “cowards and greedy materialists”. While it is understandable that emotions would run high as it became clear that opposition parties have been totally weakened by the 2010 election, one expects grown up adults like us to show restraints from making undesirable remarks. The people of Ethiopia did a right thing by electing a government of their choice in anticipation that the revolutionary democrats would hear their voices including their wishes for the release Birtukan Medeksa from prison. We have no clues as to why this young woman languishes in jail while notorious criminals including those who murdered innocent Ethiopians roam free in Ethiopia and the Diaspora! Give us a break, please. We are not stupid. We want Prime Minister Meles to work with his legal advisers to resolve this issue.

Finally, my friends, I think Ethiopian society has changed forever. Ethiopia will be ruled only by those who work hard to address citizens’ needs, not by those who are experts in manipulative politics by promising to re-write Article 39, changing the flag, redrawing regional boundaries (could be feasible) or talking about 3000 history of Ethiopia. Abadula Gemeda, the President of Oromia Regional State, is an example of a successful politician in contemporary Ethiopia. Despite relentless barrage of ridiculing and insults by extremist groups including the notorious OLF, Abadula kept a low profile and focused on his work. He won the people over to his side by giving them hope, prosperity and peace.

Getachew Mequanent

Ottawa, Canada

May 2010