The signing of the electoral code of conduct by the four major Ethiopian political parties (EDP, AEUP, CUD and EPRDF) is a major step towards the democratization of Ethiopian politics. However, perhaps we shouldn’t be carried away too far to self-congratulate ourselves or congratulate each other with this outcome. Ethiopian opposition parties still remain confronted with a major challenge, which is how to prove that they can be alternative governing parties. The day EDP, CUD or AEUP is elected to replace EPRDF, what does it do to solve social, economic, environmental and other problems?
The current ruling party in Canada entered the political arena in 1985 with only two elected members of parliament. The party grew gradually and later aligned itself with the mainstream conservative party. Throughout these years, the members of this young party sat in various parliamentary committees as an opposition, to learn governance, planning and parliamentary processes. They would develop good electoral agenda and get elected twice, although they did not win majority. Today these political elites run a government that has managed one of the most stable G8 economies.
This Canadian experience may or may not be relevant. Yet, the message is that Ethiopian opposition people should be patient and develop a passion to learn how to govern. The reality is also that they are competing against a ruling party that has smart leaders, a lot of resources and clear policy ideology that promotes market economy and welfare (developmental) state. In fact, EPRDF’s planning approach can sway the opinion of even the most conservative critics, mainly because its planning rhetoric reflects what people are talking about in the boardrooms of IMF, World Bank, donor agencies and NGOs. What do you say when you hear the plan to construct networks of roads in the next five years to connect Ethiopia’s 18,000 rural Kebeles (according to one Addis based newspaper)? Or, training 55,000 extension workers, achieving 86% coverage in primary education, increasing annual university intake to 150,000 and constructing 110,000 wells and springs and 13,000 km of electric transmission grids (according to the 2005-10 national plan)? You may have doubts (as I do) as to whether or not these indicative results are achievable, but you get inspired and want to be part of what EPRDF is going.
How can an opposition party outsmart EPRDF? The first step is to change their mindset, which is to be passionate about Ethiopia’s development, not about taking or retaking state power. Focus on critical problems in Ethiopian society, such as how to prevent mothers dying during child birth and children dying of hunger and disease; how to reduce the number of unemployed people roaming in city streets; how to provide access to clean water, health, education and roads; how to increase agricultural production; how to sustain the current high rate of economic growth; national security, international relations, and so on. What opposition parties have not yet realized is that, as they have continued to focus on their political grievances, they have bored the Ethiopian public, while EPRDF has continued to create hope and even excitement through the continuous propagation of development ideals and goals.
Second, with a developmental mindset, opposition people should look outward (the countryside) to connect with the great masses. In Western countries, for example, opposition politicians are often found going around marginalized areas and communities, because those areas are least likely to receive the full attention of ruling politicians. It is therefore interesting that Ethiopia opposition people are found in the corridors of hotels and conference halls lobbying the urban middle class and foreigners, while the revolutionary democrats command tends of thousands of cadres who roam in the hundreds of thousands of villages across the country. One would of course argue that EPRDF takes advantage of its politico-administrative apparatus to recruit and deploy cadres. Yet, the fact is that opposition people have been looking in the direction of cities and Diaspora. They should look to the countryside and imagine what they could do to support the poor masses in their struggle to free themselves from poverty. We support a party that has such a rural orientation regardless of whether or not its orientation is expressed in the context of social democracy, liberal democracy or revolutionary democracy.
Finally, involve the right people. Opposition parties should move away from the 1970s style of politics, which is reliance on cadre-like fanatical members and supporters while marginalizing those who have dissenting voices. Diaspora groups that have been detached from the reality of Ethiopian society also influence them. Involve people with good social character and organizational skills. Let those Ph.Ds go back to practicing their profession. An organization that does not manage dissent in its own arena will have a problem of effectively governing a society that has diverse interest groups.
My remarks earlier notwithstanding, EDP, AEUP, CUD and EPRDF should congratulate themselves for meeting the expectation of the Ethiopian people and other stakeholders by agreeing on principles that guide political processes peacefully. The next step is to find a common ground on important national issues and stand together to address them including preventing the interference of outside forces in the political process. Hailu Shawel and other opposition leaders that kept silent when Lidetu Ayalew (now vindicated) was denounced and insulted by political hooligans might have regretted their decisions as those same hooligans have increasingly subject them to the same treatment.
Getachew Mequanent
Ottawa, Canada
November 2009