Dibaba
Regasa (02/13/09)
In my previous posting, I informed readers why the
opposition inside and outside of Ethiopia should get worried about Obama's
administration. Some people laughed at
me. I was serious however. Since Obama's inauguration last month, the
statements coming from diplomats in Addis and Washington vindicate me. In order to protect its national interest,
the US has to cooperate with the Ethiopian government which is the anchor of
peace and stability in the region.
EPRDF is a party that is pragmatist, accommodative and far sighted.
EPRDF does not strongly antagonize western nation’s national interests because
it focuses on mutual benefits by engaging itself in dialogue. It tries to minimize
damages and maximize benefits. It operates within the globalized framework of
engagement and I do not think it sets policies to make the US or EU happy.
The Obama administration and the US establishment do
believe that Ethiopia has a responsible government, non-corrupt and a partner
to work with. Even with all the
challenges in fighting poverty and the road ahead in installing democracy, the
Republicans and Democrats know that the EPRDF a principled Party.
For the US which is relatively losing economic and
political leadership in the world and that is looking for additional friends
here and there around the globe, losing Ethiopia in the Horn is like losing the
whole sub-region. Please look at what
kind of governments are in the Horn. Sudan is at cross roads with problems in
South Sudan, Darfur and ICC’s indictment of Bashir. Eritrea, a rogue and a
pariah state is on the way to be listed as terrorist sponsoring state and
Somalia is a failed state. Kenya was the darling of the west and an “economic model”
for poor countries until recently. However, Kenya’s all round vulnerability was
exposed by the recent election crisis that was mediated and resolved by outside
forces. The US needs a strong and stable country in the Horn that can take a
responsibility to pacify the region. If one asks the Republican and Democrat
gurus in the US establishment as to which country is qualified to play a
stabilizing role, Ethiopia shines. To be honest with you, Obama and Hillary
Clinton may spend about 10 Minutes a month to discuss about the Horn. But when
they do, among the Horn countries, Ethiopia comes first. This is because Ethiopia has a predictable
government and a truly committed government for peace and development. Its pro
- poor policies are showing results that ccan not be ignored by the West. It has
one of the most respectable and professional armies in Africa. This is not propaganda. Even with big challenges of poverty and
drought and occasional economic slowdowns, Ethiopia’s future is bright. No negative and fundamental foreign policy
change will take place because Ethiopia is too important for the US in the
region and you can get a confirmation from giants such as Clinton, Susan Rice,
Holbrook, Albright, Scowcroft, Powel etc.There is a growing non partisan US
support for Ethiopia.
The end result of US - Ethiopia relations will be
very healthy and productive. However, according to same diplomats in Addis and
Washington, the road ahead to maintain a fruitful relations with Obama can be
bumpier than Bush’s. This is because of the convergence of different forces
that are highly critical to EPRDF. The tiny but vocal extremist Diaspora will
lobby in Capitol Hill and the White- house. Few short sighted and insane
congress men may come up with unacceptable bills, groups with different agendas
(CSO law and Birtukan) will gang up to lobby in Washington and Brussels. The
self declared life- long arch enemy of the EPRDF, Anna Gomez will continue
demonizing the EPRDF. Some human rights groups who were recently caught red
handed while fabricating stories in Ogaden will continue their non-human rights
agenda to bash the EPRDF. Those destabilizing forces will assemble to come out
with strategies to ruin next year’s national election. Eventhough they will not
get what they want, they will make the EPRDF very busy and they will not let
the EPRDF take vacations. It will not be business as usual in the Ethiopian
Embassies in Brussels and DC.
History teaches us that except in few cases, US’s
foreign policies have never changed fundamentally because of lobbying. Lobbying
in local issues does have a higher chance of success in the US because of
constituency politics. However, lobbying in matters of US foreign policy that contradicts the US national
interest does not succeed. In fact the people and the administration in the US do not want to create another
foreign enemy in order to please some
disgruntled Ethiopians who shout at the gates of the Congress and the
Whitehouse . The people of the United States are now hostages of local and
global economic issues. No matter how sophisticated anyone’s lobbying tactics
are, the US establishment will never compromise when it comes to its national
interest.
Therefore, critics of the EPRDF will be very busy lobbying in Congress, the Whitehouse and the European Union in the coming four years. Repeated fabricated, exaggerated accusations, queries, petitions and demands by the opposition will be sent to the congress. Law makers in Congress will ask the EPRDF frequently to answer alleged human right abuses.They will make the Ethiopian government seriously engaged in addressing those allegations. Responses and investigation reports will be sent by the Ethiopian government to the congress, the State department etc. That is it. Nothing more. Life continues. US-Ethiopia relations will continue to be healthy based on the two countries national interests.