Tigray Celebrating and Looking Forward

Kalayu Abrha 06-29-21

I congratulate Tegaru for the sudden shift from deep darkness to brightness and hope!

In the late afternoon yesterday, I heard the breaking news about the liberation of Mekelle on ATV with my mouth widely open and my tiny eyes bulging out, letting warm tears of joy flow down my cheeks. In the morning hours of Nov. 4, 2020, I had experienced the same open mouth and budging eyes when I heard about the tragic news of the invasion of Tigray. At that devastating moment my eyes dropped cold tears of grief. I was not alone then, and I am not alone now. Millions of Tegaru were and are in the same mood and even much higher. Why not? This is a matter of survival, not of an individual, not of a political group, but of an entire people. The victory is nothing less than rising from the dead. For most of us Tegaru, who have become stateless in a country we trusted as a motherland, the resurrection of Tigray is a matter of having a homeland we can call your own. This is the pinnacle of human identity. What happened yesterday is in a small part a miracle; but a larger part of it is the logical outcome of the invincible army of Tigray and its battle hardened, patriotic, determined, and skillful commanders. The swift counterattack on a vast scale and the victory, by a comparatively small and poorly equipped army of Tigray, against a multinational force armed to the teeth with heavy weaponry and air power, is unprecedented in world history. It could dwarf the heroic feat of the smaller number of Spartans at Thermopylae against the countless Persians.

The world community played a significant role in turning the intentionally hidden war of genocide in Tigray into a key global agenda. However, the reversal of the dangerous trend of turning Tigray from a vibrant Nation into a mere geological and geomorphological unit is attributed to the Tigray Defense Force. Listen to the poem by Martello Awet: “ኣይነሳልየክን ዓለም”  https://youtu.be/ktBo6CCjbrs. This fact is reinforced by the motto on the DW International “ሃለዋትና ብቕልፅምና”. To put it in a layman’s language, the world loves heroes. The Rwandan genocide was not halted by the world community which was busy with its “concerns” about the tragedy. It was the rebel army that saved the remaining Tutsis from total elimination. The Rohingian rebel army was too weak to save its people from genocide as the world watched with indifference. The attention of the world was drawn to Tigray by the persistent actions of the diaspora Tegaru; but was pushed into action (though too weak and watery) by the clear signs of the revival of the Tigray people’s army into a noticeable force. Although the invaders were trying to trivialize it as “flour blown away by wind” and hiding their head in the sand like ostrich, the world saw the ground truth that this army of determined people cannot be overlooked. Given the discipline and the political maturity of the Tigray army and its leaders in domestic and international affairs, the world may have considered the politicians and the TDF as reliable potential partners in peace making and peace keeping in the Horn of Africa. As Ethiopia is messed up in its domestic and foreign policies the West must have become obliged to look for allies in addition to Kenya to manage the complex Horn of African geopolitics in its favor.

We have every bit of the news of the victories of the TDF over the invaders. Large part of Tigray is liberated. Soon the occupied territories of Tigray will surely be freed. As we celebrate current victories and prepare to celebrate the inevitable next victories we have to be awakened to the sobering postwar realities. At least in Tigray, military victory is a means to an end. Of course, there is a reason for most of us to consider the victory as an end in itself. In view of the terrible things that have been happening in Tigray for the last eight months some degree of hopelessness was crawling in our minds although the unbreakable morale, defiance, and the strong instinct of survival dominated our inner mentalities. As we celebrate, we also grieve our losses in human lives and brutally stripped dignity. When God takes away your loved ones you neither complain nor revenge. When human beings take away the lives of your loved ones you are obliged to think differently. A natural death in the hands of the almighty has to be taken out of the mind sooner or later, because it is a natural cycle that happens to every living thing. The genocide, the economic devastation, and the violation of human dignity that has been happening in Tigray for eight months is not something that can be swallowed by the euphoria of military victory.

Here I am not talking about revenge, although deep in myself I occasionally entertain a satanic feeling of devastating revenge on those who did this to the peace-loving, religious, and hardworking people of Tigray. I am talking about the measures that the leaders of Tigray and the TDF must take to destroy any possibility of this happening ever again. The reason why Tigray experienced this devastating invasion, threatening its very existence, is because it allowed the perpetrators of the war on Tigray during the Derg to go away with it. The network and the network administrators of the Derg wars in Tigray, with their soft arsenal in the political and cultural fields, kept the anti-Tigray sentiment not only alive but more vigorous under the safe umbrella of the unsuspecting TPLF-EPRDF. The current invasion of Tigray was not a result of what transpired in the last three years. It metamorphosed from egg to pupa and to a full-grown grasshopper in the comfortable host of the EPRDF. The trusting TPLF failed to notice that even its partners in the coalition were friendlier to the anti-TPLF/Tigray political configuration than they were to itself. TPLF wrongly considered its victory over the Derg as the victory of all Ethiopians and loosened it belt to a devastating end.

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Following the victorious advance of the TDF there are unmistakable signs of the lead-invader of Tigray, the Amhara elite and its blindfolded followers, trying to appease Tigray into forgetting what happened as “wrong and unfortunate”. Who is the leading coordinator and actor in the invasion of Tigray? Many Tegaru tend to get the answer wrong: Some consider Abiy to be the leader of everything. They prefer to believe that the ambitious Abiy invited Eritrea and the Amhara Militia to invade Tigray.  Others throw all the burden on Eritrea. The truth is everything is planned, coordinated, and executed by the Amhara political elite who vowed to destroy the bastion of federalism (Tigray), change the constitution, and establish a unitary state in Ethiopia with the Amhara at the helm for good! To this end the Amhara political elite encouraged Eritrea to be involved because it has had its deep-seated grudges against Tigray that it harbored for over two decades. The opportunity for Eritrea to devastate Tigray was facilitated by the Amhara elite who got the upper hand in the Ethiopian politics and foreign relations in the absence of TPLF. Abiy feared the Amhara elite and preferred to fall on their palms because his political base in Oromia was shaky as he is not considered to be “Oromo enough”. What the Amhara elite wanted from Abiy was him to partner with them against TPLF/Tigray (their key obstacle to their hegemonic ambitions), the OLF (which is in the hearts of all Oromos and is essentially federalist), and invade Western and Southern Tigray with the support of EDF under Abiy and supported by Eritrean troops.

Some Tegaru seem to be subscribing to the deceptive late coming propaganda that: “It is the Oromos who pushed the Amhara and Tigray to fight against each other so that it will be easier for them to monopolize political power in Ethiopia”. Following Tigray’s victory in the battle and diplomatic fields the threatened Amhara elite has switched its vocabulary from “Finish them! Rape and purify them! Hunger them! Take away their land!” to “Amhara and Tegaru have the same religion, culture, and history. It is wrong for them to kill one another. The Oromos are the greater enemy for both of them”. As they toot these poisonous words, they seem to have considered the people of Tigray they brutalized and displaced in millions as having short memory that does not last even for a few months. The Oromos have their own grudges on TPLF, but they did not flood into Tigray as the Amhara hordes did. Tigray is against any claim by any national region to monopolize power: be it the Amhara or the Oromo. However, Tigray has a strategic partnership with Oromos as defenders of the self-determination of nations. This is so fundamental that Tigray cannot compromise its partnership with the true representatives of the Oromo people. Neither Tegaru nor Oromos have any aim to eliminate the Amhara. The Amhara are loudly complaining about this in order to get sympathies from the rest of Ethiopians while hiding their imperial ambitions. There could have been peace and democracy in Ethiopia since a long time ago if the Amhara elites were to abandon their claim as the creators of Ethiopia, protectors of Ethiopia, and the only legitimate rulers of Ethiopia. By these illusive claims, which no Ethiopian nation and nationality would buy, the Amhara elite are taking Ethiopia down the abyss. If Ethiopia crumbles no one else is responsible for that except the Amhara elite who are tenaciously clinging to the impractical idea of Amharanized Ethiopia.

Even if the war in Tigray is over, as long as the imperial ambition of the Amhara elite is alive, it will remain like a dormant volcano waiting until it gathers enough gaseous pressure to erupt to the surprise of the local inhabitants who have built cities near it. Tigray has always been the target of the Amhara imperial ambitions. Little wonder it is the only nation that always had its political philosophies clear to the dissatisfaction of the Amhara elite. In the postwar era Tigray has to make sure by political and military means to end once and for all the age-old threat on Tigray from the Amhara neighbors. Tigray has to seriously see to it that its brute northern neighbor has to be penalized, pacified, and its potential as a threat on Tigray is permanently disabled. The third task of Tigray in the immediate postwar months or years is to make sure once and for all that no government at Arat-kilo could survive with harmful intentions on Tigray.

 

 After the victory over the Derg the wrong perception in Tigray was that “the interest of Tigray is no different from other nations; and therefore, Tigray has to solve its problems in cooperation with all other Ethiopians”. The truth is no one was willing to cooperate with Tigray; rather they were digging its grave under the very eyes of the TPLF-EPRDF. By this I mean Tigray had to and has to cater for its own interest under all circumstances. It must never succumb to the old way of doing political things because it is this folly that took Tigray to the verge of extinction. This is the strategy. The strategy of “Tigray first” could be translated into practice using various tactics. A big question arises at this point: In what political context can Tigray accomplish the taming of the three belligerent forces (Amhara, Eritrea, and Ethiopia) and do the herculean job of restoration and development.

 

 In one recent Tigrigna article on Aiga forum the issue of referendum was raised and commented upon. To dwell in my own view about the referendum in Tigray I come up with the following possible scenarios: 1. No referendum (the pre-war business as usual); 2. Referendum soon after the complete liberation of Tigray without transition; 3. Referendum after some years of transition. In the Tigrigna article on Aigaforum the author expressed his dissatisfaction about the prevailing mood on referendum among some Tegaru politicians. In what he referred to as “አፍ አፍ ልጓም” he felt strongly against the tendency to evade the issue of referendum in Tigray. Is the evasion of the issue for the short-term or for the long-term as well? I am of the opinion that given the heartbreaking behavior of Ethiopians over Tigray during the invasion the idea of Tigray remaining as an integral part of Ethiopia is more of a dream than reality. This relates to the third scenario listed above. The first scenario that there will be no referendum is a death sentence on Tigray. The only scenario that is worth discussing is whether the referendum must be done soon after the liberation of Tigray or delayed until Tigray passes through a Tigray-centered transition.

 The transition is instrumental in accomplishing the missions that pertain to the long-term security of Tigray by removing all the potential threats from the Amhara, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Devastated as Tigray is in terms of its social and economic infrastructure and the livelihoods of its people drastically weakened, in my opinion Tigray cannot afford to withstand a separate existence as an independent state in the short-term. This is basically the difference between strategy and tactic. The strategy to shape Tigray into a politically, economically, geopolitically, and diplomatically viable state is to hold a referendum and forge its own independent statehood. To attain such peak of self-determination tactics could be debatable. The key debate is the timing of the referendum: should it be held now or later. If it is not done now could there be a possibility of settling down and the cooling of the current emotions favoring referendum? I don’t consider this as a problem as long as the people of Tigray keep what happened to them in their hearts for as long time as possible. What many of us fail to realize is that the enemies of Tigray are pushing Tigray to separate. When the genocide fails, they are eager to get Tigray out physically. For them it is almost the same: They keep Tigray out of Ethiopian politics and avoid the consequences of their actions in Tigray. If Tigray cannot put its iron hand on the triple-enemies and disable them for good the threat to Tigray will worsen in different forms even as an independent state. If you ask me what my instinct tells me about this issue: I want to see Tigray as an independent state tomorrow morning! BUT am I serving my own feelings of anger fueled by the brutalities in Tigray or am I devising a tactical maneuver for Tigray to attain its lofty goal: Independence at a convenient and feasible later date?

 Disgusted beyond limit as I am by the actions of the invaders, inside me, I have turned into a human monster against them. As far as Tigray and Tegaru is concerned there is no political status-quo ante in the relations with the invaders. However, much we are harmed we have to decide “never again” but keep our composures to void being outmaneuvered by the enemies. The enemies of Tigray get their ammunition against us from what they refer to as the characteristic “passing anger” of Tegaru. “Keep your friend close; keep your enemy closer”. This is what we Tegaru lack. The fact that Tegaru by nature think aloud and are notorious extroverts is what has been causing widespread damage to us by the patient, silent, and introvert enemy. There should be a sea change in the typical Tigrayan character in terms of not being obvious and predictable. We always win wars, but we soon lose and succumb to enemy machinations because we lack the software to guard our achievements. To differ is a healthy state of mind; but there should be time and place for it. Exaggerating insignificant differences like geographic location of our home districts in Tigray could drive us towards a common doom in the hands of the enemy. This time unlike other times is a struggle for survival of Tigray as a Nation. This is the bottom line. Any deviation at this point by individuals or groups is being much worse than the enemy. We will have time in free and prosperous Tigray of the future to quarrel and fight not only by districts but also by neighborhoods if there is addiction for it. In fact, by that time all of us will feel Tigray as only one district and one neighborhood. It is poverty that pits us against one another. Germany, France, and Austria feel as one people with high level of economic and social development. We have to thrive to attain that.

To say a few things about the restoration of Tigray. Once the military campaign ends the elected government should issue its first proclamation to launch a short-term, medium term, and long-term restoration and sustainable development. The proclamation should provide for formulating a special policy of restoration and development followed by a detailed strategy. The strategy document should be broken down into programmes and each programme into specific action projects. Prioritization on the basis of geography, gender, and social and economic sectors should guide the design of the programmes. Action number one is to set up an institution that coordinates the restoration and development. A national board overseeing restoration and development should lead the Tigray Institution for Postwar Restoration and Development (TIPRD). The first stage of restoration must use the service of volunteers. A movement for voluntary action in Tigray should be initiated to last until the medium term. Although urgent actions are taken for the most urgent problems in the first phase whatever is done in the first phase must keep in mind the needs of the medium and development phases. In other words, actions in the first phase of restoration must be relevant to the third development phase.

Postwar restoration in Tigray should not imply a return to the status quo ante. The invasion has changed not only the physical attributes in Tigray but also our state of mind about how we should go on from here into the future. Innovative and sustainable technologies and practices must prevail. The pre-war economy and the federal policies that shaped it were meant for all Ethiopia, not taking the special environmental and socioeconomic peculiarities of Tigray. For instance, the Federal disaster management policy of 2013 (the 1993 policy hijacked to alienate Tigray) fails to consider drought as number one natural hazard. The water policy of Ethiopia does not take water scarce areas into consideration. Conservation is not well addressed in the policy. From the outset, whether Tigray still remains in the Federation of not it has to formulate its own appropriate policies and use them beginning from the restoration phase.