Not Intuitive as Ruthless as the Alliance in the War against Tigrai in the 21^st Century

B. TeweldeB

10-17-21

   I.        Introduction:

1.   Fighting continues. Abiy Ahmad & Isaias Afwerki, the architects of the Tigrai war, planning the 2nd part of the complete genocide in Tigrai. The war proved that under Isaias Afwerki's leadership, regardless of any peace deals and diplomatic openings, the future will be shaped by atrocities, war crimes, and endless suffering. It is having gradually unembellished magnitudes, Tigrai Genocide is looming a year mark the notorious Rwandan genocide in 1994.

2.   While almost all wars contain dimensional damage, the war in Tigrai is in malevolent alliance, proxy, tangling genocide, a war crime, and a crime against humanity for the uncertain future of the Horn of Africa. When a state like Ethiopia, does not observe factually, Tigrai has regularly called upon other nations approaching Great Britain (by Haile Selassie), Russia (by Mengestu Hailemariam), and now China, the UAE, Somalia, Eritrea, and others (by Abiy Ahmed), to massacre Tigrians.

3.   Since the commencement of the wide-ranging genocide, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Amhara troops burned crops, occupied and looted homes, and committed extrajudicial killings. Rights groups have documented large-scale massacres, summary executions, sexual violence, pillaging, arbitrary detention, and attacks on factories, schools, and hospitals. The so-called Ethiopian government has contended on blocking every communication and socio-economic service out of Tigrai as well as humanitarian aid into Tigrai. The authority has blocked all services into Tigrai, and access is sporadic. What’s happening on the ground is being intentionally muddied while millions of innocent Tigrians starvation, the use of hunger as a weapon of war, rape or sexual violence as a weapon of war, nationwide Tigrian censorship, and siege, freezing of banks for Tigrians, mass arrests, and blocking of humanitarian aid and mass murder the state of Ethiopia has vexed to destroy Tigrai. Tens of thousands of Tigrians refugees are torrential into Sudan. More tens of thousands are dead and endangered in attacks in their places as vulnerable as also churches, mosques, and hospitals, schools, IDPs.

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4.   This, together with the killing, pillaging, and rape, committed has created a humanitarian crisis. The blockade is a complete and total siege encompassing humanitarian, financial, communication, transport, and economic. There are currently up to 6.8 million people in need of emergency assistance. To worsen the case, since the conflict began, aid workers have been killed and banish from the country.

5.   Nobody knew where this would take us. The US sanctioned the chief of staff of the Eritrean defense forces, Filipos Woldeyohannes. The Biden administration has repeatedly called on Eritrean forces to withdraw from Tigrai and declare executive order. The European Union sanctioned Eritrea’s National Security Agency with an asset freeze and travel ban. The threat of new sanctions from the US and EU is also under consideration. The fighting taunts calls for peace and dialogues from the UN and others. 

 II.        The War Intricacy:

6.   Conspiracy Theories Surrounding to break the endless cycle of the complete genocidal war. In recent years, the proxy wars reemerged as symbolic of provocative war. Many inter-State and intra-State skirmishes in Africa become more multifaceted by being extended into proxy wars. Outright wars carried out by subsidiary or co-opted movements, usually of hidden interest in nature. The war in Tigrai has been an act of treason and completing genocidal. In the adjoining, Eritrean forces have violated and still do Ethiopia's territorial integrity. Abiy's government invited foreign governments to attack the people of Tigrai. He used mercenary foreign forces to suppress a legitimate domestic political and constitutional right. Moreover, forces from the Amhara region are in control of Western Tigrai.

7.   The Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces, as is widely reported and documented, are engaged in war crimes and crimes against humanity. They have collectively committed crimes at a scale rarely seen in recent history. Siege, starvation, sexual violence, and looting of public and private property have been used as an instrument of war. Mass displacement and large-scale civilian massacres have characterized this war. Moreover intentional destruction of heritage sites and museums as well as desecration of worshiping places to efface the identity and undermine the pride of the people of Tigrai.

III.        The Malign alliance: Regional and Extra Regional Forces

8.   The Horn of Africa made up of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia is one of the most important geographical locations in the world. It is a choke point along the traditional oil route that Sunni Gulf countries use. Political researchers like Martin Plaut and Alex de Waal have explicated the geopolitical fights this genocide hides behind. The new locus of great power conflict with the United States and China vying for influence and resources in the conflict, furthermore, the conflict in Tigrai, with its strategic location across the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea from the Middle East, has converted the receptacle for the latest stage of a centuries-old proxy battle. The Ethiopian-Eritrean, Somalia, and United Arab Emirates direct alliance and China, Russia, and Turkey support appear on set on wiping out the Tigrian population.

9.   Tigrai being the fountainhead of self-determination, if left to its values, will send the dispatch that freedom is not given but taken. That will central to the proliferation of expeditions for autonomy and independence among nations in Ethiopia and self-realization in Eritrea too. This being the chronic specter for both Isaias and Abiy. This is why China has made Eritrea the main “beachhead” for CCP activities in the Horn of Africa. Starting in 2019, Eritrean officials met in Beijing with the CCP and agreed to strengthen ties between the two countries[1]. “Eritrea and China stand ready to build … strong partnership for the benefit of their two peoples,”[2]. Isaias, unwittingly or not, corroborated not the military involvement per se but his unwavering support based on principles. He illustrated the congruence of the motivations of the allies. As a coincidence, Isaias, Abiy, and the Amharas are fighting Ethiopia’s multinational federalism. Isayas is busy saving Amhara militia and the principled position of China else! Recently, Isaias Afewerki, the visible elephant in the war on Tigrai, when he met his commanders, has confirmed that the war is not over. This is Isaias' and China's war, the same Isaias Afwerki and Chinas found guilty of crimes against humanity, using forced conscripts under the indefinite national slavery program to wage war on Tigrai and commit horrendous crimes -gross human rights violations. This was planned since they couldn't dislodge them from Central Tigrai without heavy losses.

10.               China has converted the real puppet master in the war in Tigrai[3]. Abiy`s decision to begin centralizing power and quiver the federalized system is entrenched in its relationship with the Chinese advisors, who are intruding more and more in the Horn[4]. It entails stable and centralized systems of government to pledge the Belt and Road Initiative’s success. While China has picked no side in the current conflict, but that's not the case, the working relationship is so strong that both armies have got military support from China and rent lobbyist for Ethiopia in USA and EU countries too. It is through Chinese mediation that Ethiopia agreed to hand Eritrea the coveted border area[5]. Reports also show that as early as 2017, China offered to send troops to the disputed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea[6]. China has offered to mediate the dispute by sending troops to the border between Djibouti and Eritrea too[7] as a strategic control to the region. 

11.               China has directly exploited local conflicts to spur external solutions that bring it more control and power and thus monopolizing rich natural resources. Ethiopia has been one of the most heavily invested African countries by China over the past 40 years. It owes an extra 5 percent of Ethiopia’s GDP in hidden debt. Ethiopia borrowed US$13.7 billion from Chinese lenders from 2000 to 2020[8]. Ongoing debt and military cooperation may face the country's tougher debt relief talks over ‘hidden’ Chinese lending too. It seems likely that recently uncovered debts by other coconspirators will complicate the war again. Meanwhile, where a brutal war is raging in Tigrai has also begun the process[9].

12.               Why is China rent supplicant? By shoring up its control over the Horn of Africa, China is essentially in control of the Western side of the Red Sea. This means all its accomplices and Iran will have complete access to the Horn, placing shipping routes in danger as well as increasing arms smuggling. More importantly, as China strengthens its grip in the region the world’s oil will be up for grabs as the case was in North and South Sudan. Essentially, China will be in near control of the most important shipping lanes.

13.               Why is China rent lobbyist for Ethiopia in the USA? The AGOA has been described as the cornerstone of America's the trade and investment policy with sub-Saharan Africa. At the center of the AGOA are substantial trade preferences that, along with those under the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) tariff treatment, allow almost all goods produced in the AGOA-eligible countries to enter the US market duty-free. Under the TCF provision, lesser-developed beneficiary countries enjoy an additional preference in the form of duty-free/quota-free access for apparel made from fabric originating anywhere in the world. Though China and the United States of America are in a trade war, Ethiopia is in stark contrast to the aggressive export strategies China has on AGOA via its clothing and textile industry situated in Ethiopia. Thus, China to abuse the AGOA-eligible countries' opportunity in the name of the lesser-developed beneficiary countries and enjoy an additional preference in the form of duty-free hiring lobbyist is the minimal task to do.

Yes indeed, the persistent position in the population, negative record in the issue of Human rights, and self-determination rights might push China to stand against Tigrai. However, the issue is beyond and a strategic one.

14.               The most conspicuous manifestation of the startling contacts has been the rapprochement between China, UAE, and Turkey. China initially joined an international anti-Tigrai force and more recently providing Drones. The Turkish agreement, which enables Abiy to have a military UAV and presence in the Red Sea for Turkey, though Saudi Arabia and UAE worry about Turkish military expansion because of its close relations with Iran and support for Qatar. With the help of such Arab countries, the Eritrean forces joined hands with the ENDF and allegedly with the help of UAE armed drones counter-attacked the Tigrian forces. There was alleged looting in Tigrai Region, including systematic, wide-scale looting. Many of the agendas were inspired by external forces. Even in the Tigrai case that past three years, all the thinking must be seen from that perspective – the main actors are the big powers.

15.               Turkey is also providing UAVs against Tigrian[10]. Turkey's drones shall hardly make any difference in the outcome of this war[11]. Firstly, unlike the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it's not a positional war between two clearly defined war lines encompassing an area of only a few square km. Besides, the xtb2 Turkish drones have a range of only 150kms. The war in Ethiopia is not only against Tigrai and the Tigray forces but also Oromia, the Afars, the Somalis, the Ages, the BG, the Sidama, etc. All of Turkey's investments in the country shall be brought to naught forever very soon when Abiy's adversaries shall have assumed power. It's a short-sighted policy that he has embarked upon.

16.               The United Arab Emirates has also emerged as a key player in the war against Tigrai, given its relationships with both Ethiopia and Eritrea. The UAE has 92 investment projects in Ethiopia. Abu Dhabi has longstanding ties to Eritrea, and since 2015, the UAE has had a military base in the port of Assab, its first military such facility abroad. The United Arab Emirates' support UAVs against Tigrian, aircraft were launched from the Emirati military base in Assab, Eritrea[12]. The UAE's support is not only aimed at creating areas of influence in Africa but also seeks to preserve its interests. In particular, the UAE may expand investment cooperation and develop trade relations with countries such as India, Indonesia, Turkey, Kenya, South Korea, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Russia, and China in the coming years. UAE has become one of Russia’s most important economic partners and political interlocutors in the Middle East. Major UAE funds are involved in projects in Russia[13]. The UAE’s development of ties with China also follows a wide range of economic opportunities[14]. Such alliance has also contributed a significant impact on the war in Tigrai.  

IV.        Culmination

17.               Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed traveled to Asmara frequently to meet Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki for direction. The Afwerki regime is also likely to face a new wave of domestic dissent in the coming days. Now that the rainy season is ending, Tanks & Airstrikes becoming irrelevant again though countries provided. This is a zero-sum game for these guys, so I don't expect any real negotiations which are unfortunate. The magnitude of losses will be revealed only after the war. Only time will tell whether Afwerki will be able to weather this storm and somehow hold on to power.

18.               The Uncertain Future: What makes us different is that we as a people have learned from experiences because we have gone through some challenges in the past. We have faced many divisive and confrontational experiences in the past.  We are not different. It is a pattern that has been going on in Kosovo or Yugoslavia. The country enters into war and ends up being disintegrated, with no more national and sovereign institutions as well territorial integrity. War is becoming an outdated means of human conflict resolution. There would be no winning in war, there is only losing, at a cost that staggers every dimension on all sides – in lives, in money, and in the squandered opportunity to do anything better with our collective time and resources in this already beset region. We still have Isayas and Abiy, who still believe war and war-like situations are the only way to maintain their power. The people are not lucky enough; Abiy Ahmed and Isayas value self-ego over peace, stability, and prosperity.