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Quo Vadis Tigray: What Now?

Quo Vadis Tigray: What Now?

Faato,

07/05/2020

 

As the saying goes, ‘the tough is going, and the going is tougher’. Ethiopia is going to the high cliff and deep dark unless politicians and the elite come to their sense and at least ease the fast-going tensions. Sense of frustration, anger, despair and losing hope is prevailing and darkening the heart from every corner of life – COVID19, desert locust swarm and looming destructive war are all coming at the same time testing all Ethiopians. The groupwho is wickedly running the country and their sponsors accomplices are deafened by their political and personal interests – power, money - and sarcastic psychosocial personalities to listen to the howling fierce wind of pain and blinded to see the high cliff that the country is heading to.

Quo Vadis Tigay is now the real question. We saw and hear what is happening. The PP is riding a horse that it has no control over. Abiy Ahmed’s level of arrogance, ignorance and hunger for power, absolute power but with no ability and wisdom to handle it, is like no other in the history of the country. The group atArat Kilo and its puppets and hosts have no drop of morality, etiquette, sense of shame, legality, or rightness in any measurement. They look to take any risk to stay in power and fulfil their personal and herd narcist interests.

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Those ruling Tigray, though were part of the problem that brought us to the mess we are in now, do not lose faith on the Federal government and the core destructive group. They are trapped by their own non-existent or false hope that either the group will come to its sense with time or expecting other forces to join them in fighting the dangerous force and their enablers. However, as said above, the people at the federal power are working tooth and nail 24/7 with no morale or legal restrictions. They are and will turn every stone to stay in power at the expense of the country and its populace, but above all crush anyone who tried to stop them unless the stone is much heavier than theirs and strenuous to stop them. This is what the TPLF and the Tegaru elites (most of them) did not understand and tend to waste their time to hope for a non-existent hope – fantasia!! It is operating in a wild and lower sense of mind that keeps lying, cheating, deceiving but with no sense of remorse and guilt rather considers it as a way of life.

Now, the PP, through its unelected leader make it clear that he will not allow Tigray to exercise its constitutional right of running an election. More, he promised to use all means and he is prepared including use force and that is why he invited his advisor Isaias Afeworki. The PP and its false leadership have done everything they can to punish Tigray and Tegaru, no need to mention all, but hopefully someone is recording each and every piece of atrocities committed and will read soon a time line of all the mayhems, but I would say now the end is coming fast.

1.      Tigray is denied its right to run election under the constitution

2.      The constitution and the self-rule enshrined will fade very soon from the supreme law of the land

3.      Military attack is on its way if Tigray prefers to go its way

4.      All possible diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, telecommunications jamming, and other forms of harsh actions are prepared

Now, time is too short and it is running fast against Tigray. Tigray has fewer options now than any time in its history because of the time wasted waiting for action to come from the centre rather than acting, setting agenda and then negotiates. It went the opposite.It looks TPLF was just in a fantasy mood dreaming for unrealistic situation for either the federal government will settle down and behave in line with the constitution or will fail soon. Tigray now has three options:

1.      Take all the risks and run its election: This can cause war between Tigray in one hand, and the federal government and Isaias Afeworki’s regime on the other hand. It is going to be full scale war that devastates all but certainly Tigray will come the winner.

2.      Negotiate with the federal government: Tigray may not posses right now a good leverage or negotiating powers. Coming to negotiation at the last hour puts her in lower position. This will lead to subjugation that Tegaru will not accept or a minimal gain conveying a message of staying from the loser’s side. But, if thought well, Tigray can have powerful negotiating powers if TPLF and the elites can skillfully play the game. These shall not be written here and saved for later purpose if this optioned is found to be feasible.

3.      Going to a stronger action – invoking article 39 of the constitution the soonest possible: This can lead to both negotiated settlement (option 2) or can take to declaring independence. However, this must be done the soonest possible to avoid risk of suspension or changing of the constitution.

TPLF’s naïve expectation that regional states and the so-called federal forces will remain strong and intact is a highly risky business. Corruption and bribing, kinship alliances (among parties of the same ethnic group), risk avoidance by some groups and other ill actions should be expected in this time of crisis. This is mean that Tigray should not wait for others or depend on others rather shall take actions by and from its own cost benefit considerations.

As the African saying goes, a gazelle knew that she will be eaten if she did not run faster than the hungry lion, Tigray will be crushed if Tegaru and the party leading it did not take fast action faster than that of PP. No time to waste, to energy to spare and no resources to ignore now. Action is louder than any.

We Stand Firm and United; We Shall Overcome All These Too!

 

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