Zeru Hagos Aug 20, 2018
One among the many memorable songs of the legendary singer the late Kiros Alemayehu is ምቕናይ ጽቡቕ (good to be around to see the present). Ethiopia’s politics is filled with many intrigues and backstabbings. Many of Ethiopia's former kings and princes were known to have used extensively backstabbing plots to come to power and maintain their control over the population and other contenders. When EPRDF came to power many were hopeful such political intrigues and behind the door machinations were over because EPRDF introduced a new constitution and started the process of democratization! However, lately, the EPRDF itself is mired with intrigues that will guarantee its certain demise in the near future! Who would have thought such forthcoming after so much work done to strengthen Ethiopia’s unity with diversity over the years!
Many experts I have asked and discussed do not understand the wisdom behind OPDO and ANDM marriage outside of EPRDF! The marriage is the type of political backstabbing that is certain to undo the constitutional order and Ethiopia as we know it today and here is why!
Sources I talked told me OLF has no desire to pop up the OPDO and according to the same source the OLF is deadly serious to have a complete control of Oromia! OLF has placed key leaders in Ethiopia and neighboring countries to lead the takeover process of Oromia from OPDO. Asked how OLF plans to accomplish such takeover when its own leaders are in Asmara and given the relationship between Isaias Afeworki and Abiy Ahmed, the sources told me OLF has many other leaders placed in a strategic position around the Horn Region to minimize any action by Isaias Afewroki against Dawd Ibssa who is in Asmara today!
The same source told me OLF is not impressed with Abiy and many in the leadership circle do not even believe Abiy is an Oromo nationalist! And when asked about what the OLF thinks about OPDO, the source told me, OLF does not believe there is an OPDO anymore!
Similar to its dismissive stand about the OPDO, the OLF is also unimpressed about Jawar! The source told me Qerro is under a strict control of the OLF. Apparently, Jawar is simply an echo chamber with no control over Qerro. At the moment, the Qerros are under order to remain tight and silent from the OLF. The source told me when and if they are needed they will be activated to duty! The source told me this truth may be what is bothering Abiy and Lemma and the recent cry to respect law and order.
The veteran TPLF leader Aboy Sebhat on many occasions said there will be an end to EPRDF in the future. However, no one in his/her right mind thought EPRDF end was this close! According to sources close to TPLF, there is a common understanding reached among many TPLF members that EPRDF is almost done. Many believe Abiy and his team have caused a serious damage to the EPRDF institution. The conspiracy between ANDM leaders and OPDO as well as Abiy’s transgression of the constitution has caused a deep scar on many TPLF members. The same source told me TPLF is almost ready to spearhead the formation of a revolutionary democratic front where other Ethiopians will be welcomed. The new camp will be used to wedge a peaceful campaign to retake the federal power.
While ANDM leaders are trying to appease their current bosses from the OPDO, hoping they will remain in power, the political development in Amhara is becoming unfavorable for current ANDM leaders. It is open secret both OPDO and ANDM are threatened by nationalist from their own regions. Realizing such development, TPLF is quietly working on reassembling revolutionary democrats while Abiy is trying hard to create wedges between TPLF leaders hoping TPLF will be weakened! No one knows who will succeed but all indications are the Tigrean masses are becoming more supportive of the TPLF due to the inhuman killings going on all over Ethiopia today. Such killing in broad day light and the fact that Amhara nationalist as well as the OLF is poised to take over power in Oromia and Amhara is being seen as good opportunity for TPLF to push ahead for the gathering of revolutionary democrats.
Abiy and his team have crossed the line. Ethiopia is now under the mercy of GOD. The OLF takeover of Oromia will determine what the next federal arrangement will look like. TPLF is still deliberating if it should work with OLF and fight head on chauvinists and anti-federal forces or strengthen the revolutionary forces in each regional government hoping to restore the EPRDF government.
Much is to be seen and as Kiros Alemayehu said ምቕናይ indeed will be ጽቡቕ for some to say ኣይበልናንዶ and watch the revolutionary democrats take power again and to others to see what Abiy’s Ethiopia becomes!