The PM does not appear to be positioning himself to lead EPRDF for the long haul. His handlers are busy destroying EPRDF and by extension the federal system. It should be obvious to them that no one party will be subservient to them on any long-term basis (perhaps ANDM but that will be their downfall in the Amhara region). Instead, the PM’s handlers seem to be preparing to form a new party that will largely focus on folding OLF and OMN into its tent before the next election.  The talk about a new name and a new flag is one indicator.  In the meantime, in the Amhara region, Mr. Gedu Andargachew and his team are working behind the scenes to merge their party with one of the Amhara nationalist movements. Whether this strategy will succeed in keeping Ethiopia united is an open question.  Regardless, if this strategy is to work, EPRDF’s support network must be crushed, which is where the current undemocratic adventure in Ethio-Somali comes into play.

To be clear, the invasion of Ethio-Somali by federal troops has two aims: (1) deny EPRDF a key support network; and, (2) satisfy the territorial ambitions of extremist Oromos using federal armed forces and a newly-installed puppet leadership (including both the newly minted Ethio-Somali regional President and the new ESPDP Chairman).  It defies any logic to unconstitutionally attack the Ethio-Somali state and target its leader for raising a constitutional guaranteed question of secession while also negotiating with an Oromo secessionist group (OLF) that is still promising to push its self-determination agenda even after recently signing a peace deal with OPDO leaders in Asmara.  But, this is where we are today.

The next step on the agenda is likely aimed at weakening the Afar regional government because it too is seen as EPRDF’s support network.  The signs are already there.  These backroom operators are beginning to stir problems in an otherwise peaceful region, partnering with international media outlets about supposed human rights abuse claims. Here too, OMN continues to play its historical role to fan the flames.  This is despite the fact that we continue to witness human right abuses in Oromia where Amharas and Tigrayans are facing ethnic-based attacks daily and their businesses burned (which is a direct result of years of inflammatory rhetoric and fake news by the likes of ESAT and OMN – although the latter is suddenly attempting to shed its radical ideology and rebrand it’s a moderate movement in the hopes of gaining respectively).  But, no one is calling the federal government or the international media on Oromia or is seeking to forcibly remove Mr. Lemma Megersa from his post.  It's all hush, hush in the land of Oromia while the atrocities escalate.

Meanwhile, the final item on the political agenda will be to create mischief in Tigray by importing alien demands like building a mosque in Axum, with the intention of dividing Tigrayans along religious lines.  Recent attempts to sneak in bombs and armaments into Tigray should also be seen within this context.  Creating disunity and suspicion within Tigray is seen as the last nail in the EPRDF coffin. 

The fallout from all of this will undoubtedly have a lasting impact on all of us. And it is not too difficult to imagine why EPRDF's disintegration will be harmful to Ethiopia.  Given these realities, every Ethiopian should start asking some questions and ask it fast.  

Why are leaders in the federal government and their allies asking permission to speak Amharic to a supposedly Ethiopian audience?

Whose flag (Ethiopia or OLF or Oromo) are we seeing at the various rallies and meetings supporting the PM?  

Will the regional maps (with new boarders) that are being promoted at various events bring peace among Ethiopians? 

Why do they insist on calling Addis Ababa Finfinnee?  

Why are Oromo extremists seeking to expand their territory into Ethio-Somali?  

And does anyone really believe this territorial expansionist agenda will stop with Ethio-Somali?

And why is the PM installing puppet regional presidents and party chairs?

Why are key federal positions given to one group? Wasn’t this the main accusation against TPLF?

Are some political leaders thinking they will use OPDO and the PM to dismantle EPRDF before contesting power? If this is the secret plan, isn’t it short-sighted as this would only serve to throw the nation into chaos?

Finally, do other EPRDF member/allied parties fully appreciate the hidden agenda at play here and the dangers that await?  If so, what are they doing to mitigate these risks?

Now is time to ask where all this is headed. We don’t have much more time…