Dr. Abiy’s Reforms Hasten Inclusive Economic Developments and Political Stabilities in Ethiopia

By: Dr. Teshome Adugna [1] August 21, 2018

1. Introduction

Reform is the natural process of any nation to bring desirable change in the given country. Today many countries in developed and developing countries have undertaken various forms of reform to improve the life qualities of their people. Ethiopia had been undertaken a number of reforms since the modern government administration started in the country since early 1940s. Most of these reforms were not based on the interest of the public at large. Relatively the social development oriented reform was implemented after Ethiop-Eretria war which shift the country from IMF/WB sponsored neo-liberal policy to democratic development state development policy.

This reform has change the country incredibly by achieving fast and broad- based economic growth. The argument at this time was to focus on economic development with dominant ruling party that maintains political stability. Many critics of this reform argue that the reform was designed without political consensus with all or few legally registered political parties. After twenty years successful economic and infrastructural growth, the government or ruling party miserably failed to attain political stability and inclusive economic development.

Recently the ruling party accepted its failure in realizing its inclusive economic development and political stability. Actually it becomes frequent at the end of the EPRDF’s executive meeting or press release to blame its top leadership in failing to satisfy the public demand. Inter regional border conflict and the higher demand of quality social and infrastructure development were not give proper and onetime response from local or federal government. During the last three years the nation swayed with continues public unrest at least in the major two regions such as Oromia and Amhara National Regional states.

According to the decisions of the EPRDF’s executive meeting, the party started to implement the deep reform program. Few writers such as G.Amare(2018)[2] and Yene Gasha(2018)[3] strongly disagree on the current reforms measure taken by Dr. Abiy who is the current chair person of the ruling party. In its latest article Zeru Hagose[4](2018) told us to fight back the new reform program to go back to the non reformed or non innovative revolutionary democratic developmental[5] state. According to close sources for Zeru Hagos, TPLF is almost ready to spearhead the formation of a revolutionary democratic front where other Ethiopians will be welcomed. The new camp will be used to wedge a peaceful campaign to retake the federal power. Against of these opponents of the Dr. Abiy’s reform program Alemayehu[6] G. Mariam and Tamagne Beyene[7](2018) said that Ethiopians for the first time are now seeing the dawn of a new day in which they are regaining hope and confidence in their future..

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The major purpose of this brief article was to explain the rationals of Dr. Abiy’s reform to promote political stability and inclusive economic development. The article consists of five sections including introduction. The second section explains the concepts of reform. The third section identifies the need of urgent broad and wide range reform program. The fourth section explains the major measures taken to improve the political stabilities and inclusive economic development in the country. The last section is summary.

The Oxford English Dictionary provides a definition of reform as “the amendment of altering for the better of same faulty state of things, especially of a corrupt or oppressive political institution or practices; the removal of some of some abuse of wrong”. In other wards it is the change in the institution or practices that improve the public services. Reform is completely different from revolution. Reform work on the improvement of the existed system than completely replacement of the system. It consists of change and improvement to a law, social system or institution. The activities of reform include action to improve or correct what is wrong or defective in something. This correction can include social, political and economic wrong doing.

The developmental oriented state intervention in the Ethiopia since 2002 has increased resources allocation on the functionalities and capabilities of nation to attack absolute poverty. The road net work and social development has shown dramatic improvement as compared to before 2002. The percentage of absolute poverty has declined by half from 44 percent in 2000 to 23 percent in 2016. In addition to reducing the rate of absolute poverty the country also over take the economic power house of Horn Africa from Kenya in terms of national output (GDP). The speed, sustainability and the broad-based economic growth has changed or improved the image of the country at continental and global level. Surprising the nation has join at international capital market to sell bond to finance its infrastructural development activities. To maintain the speed of the economic growth and development the government introduced new national development plan which is known as GTP (Growth and Transformation Plan) to achieve national food security and structural transformation.

However due to absence selective sector intervention and lack of universality of policy implementation at regional and national level affected the qualities of economic growth. Furthermore the macroeconomic instability in terms of inflation, higher unemployment, trade deficit, shortages of foreign currency and increase external debt burden or high debt servicing reduced the impacts of economic growth on inclusive economic development. Even if the nation enjoys high economic growth, the growth could not benefit the very large segments of rural people by modernizing the agricultural sector or quality of social services provision.

The higher economic growth could not improve the competitiveness of manufacturing sector at local and international market. The higher spending appetite of the economy was not supported by supply side growth of production and productivity. Even the various government interventions such as Food Security Program (FSP) and government wheat purchase from abroad could not reach the targeted people or not improve the purchasing power of the urban and rural food insecure people. This resulted on increasing inequality and higher unemployment in the country. The youth and women at large were unable to share fairly the opportunities of economic growth with limited number of exporter or private investors in the economy. According to UNDP[8] (2016) human resources development report Ethiopia must work on inclusive economic development to promote equity for its people.

The EFDR constitution encourages multiparty system by conducted frequent elections at the national, regional and local level. In the recent parliamentary election conducted in 2015, the number of political parties participated in the election was more than 45. But most of them could not join the parliaments which is the higher legislative body in the country. The level and number of public participation of in political decision highly declined. The ruling party even failed to design any other alternative option to invite different political parties to participate in decision making. Even the party (EPRDF) failed to manage its own collusion member’s organizations with its revolutionary democracy ideology. These show inability of the ruling party even to keep up its organization value let alone leading economic development in the country.

These indicates the challenges the ruling party to achieve inclusive economic development and political stability. The revolutionary democracy failed to keep its own promises of reliable peace, economic development and political stability. Now the question is not about ideology rather lack of learning from its implementation of the economic and political practices. Certainly the paradigm that could not rethink or modify its implementation from the last ten years practice would face unprecedented reform[9]. Including the ruling party top leaders and public at large recognize the need of an immediate and urgent reform. The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition that has ruled the country for 27 years, finally realized that this latest episode of popular unrest will not settle without the government introducing major changes.

Thus, the coalition unveiled a reform agenda focusing on the need to broaden the political space, to release political prisoners, and listen to voices of opposition (Yohannes Gedamu, 2018). So any reforms that came from anywhere to save the nation were welcomed by the community at large. In the absence of a strong and credible opposition Ethiopians pinned their hopes on the new premier and his broad political appeal even though he himself is part of the ruling coalition they have long been protesting against (Yohannes Gedamu, 2018).

4. Dr. Abiy’s Reforms Hasten Inclusive Economic Development and Political Stability

Since he gets the office Dr. Abiy[10] has taken various consistence and effective measure in achieving its objectives of peace and unity of the nation. In a riveting speech at his April 2 inauguration, Abiy acknowledged some of Ethiopia’s enduring problems. He apologized for the deaths of protesters at demonstrations, welcomed differences of opinion and promised to heal the wounds between Ethiopia’s ethnic groups (Paul Schemm, 2018). His[11] deep understanding of the ruling party with the prevailed socio-economic problems in the country gave him full confidence on the action that he can take to transform the country.

Since he took office, Internet service has been restored to the countryside, charges against dozens of activists have been dropped, and he has embarked on meetings around the country, listening to grievances and promising reform, including term limits for his position. He visited almost most parts of the country to building consensus on peace, stability and unity. He applied innovative mind change approaches of love and forgiveness to show capacity of the nation to transform the country. According to our PM any nations in country would be part of the nation building process which he calls it “MDEMER”. His philosophy mainly focuses on forward looking and national unity. In addition to these our PM has taken various measures in promoting inclusive economic development and political stability.

4.1 Inclusive Economic Development: As motioned above the country realized higher economic growth during the last two decades. But the outcome of economic growth not channeled to the targeted poor people. The increase infrastructural and social development could not increase productivity at household or firm level. To increase or improve the inclusive economic development, Dr. Abie has taken various economic measures. Few of these measures include privatization of minor or major part of large public enterprise, stabilize the foreign exchange rate, control illegal trade and increase national foreign reserve. The recent decision taken by the PM has increased the confidences of the local and foreign private. The gap between formal and black market exchange rate dramatically declined. The price of imparted item started to decline due to appreciation of local currency in the informal market.

Further the idea of selling major share of industrial park and corporation to the private sectors would shift financial resources from private sector subsidy to finance provision of basic services to disadvantages group of the societies. In addition to this the establishment of Diaspora trust fund encourages foreign capital inflow to the economy. These provide an opportunity for the government to import the necessary knowledge and technologies to provide the required infrastructure development to help the poor. This would enhance inclusive economic development and speed up economic growth. There is no change in polices ideology of the old EPRDF rather our PM went to focus on intensifying democratic developmental state to change the life quality of poor people. That means our PM focuses more on human elements of the economy than ideology.

4.2 Political Stabilities: Political stability of any nation mainly determined by the proportion of political parties involved in the decision making of national afire.[12]. It is natural to have disagreement on how to share power or make decision in given political system. The PM gave more priorities on cooperation political decision than conflict. In this regard the PM has invited all political parties to engage peacefully and legally to consolidate democratic practice. All foreign based political parties enter the country after two decades exile life. A number of political leaders were also released from prison to express freely their idea on unity and nation building. Dr. Abiy also met with opposition politicians and said that he welcomed their views and saw them as legitimate competition rather than as enemies of the state. Furthermore the PM promised to make the next national election fair, peaceful and fire election. The PM is more focus nation and consensus building than party philosophy.

In addition to broadening the political space, the new PM formed the adviser council who directly involve in proposing privatization option for public enterprise. This advisory council member was nominated from all stockholders such as opposition parties, civic society, higher academic institutions and government officials. The PM told parliament in one country, there will be differences in ideas. Difference is not a curse when we listen to each other, and when we agree based on principle, it brings blessings. In argument, solutions will be found. This wise approach of the PM gave confidence for the wide range of societies to work on national dialogue and reconciliation. The last but not the least the PM was effective and successful in mediating various group of different religion to work for peace and love. The efforts of our PM during the last four months were significantly reduce individual or group difference in nation building, tolerances and unity of the country.

Ethiopia has witness wide range economic and political reform program since 1991. The reform undertaken between 1991 and 2002 was mainly sponsored by multilateral institutions such as IMF and WB. The post conflict and initial situation of the country gave more power for the IMF and WB to led the nation Structural Adjustment Program (SAP). Understanding the problem of the neo-liberal reform program Ethiopia government implemented the democratic developmental state since 2002. Such decision was timely and important to recover the economy after Ethio-Erteria conflicts. The change of the development paradigm increase national output with provision of infrastructure and social services.

The lack of continuous evaluation of the policy and knowledge based policy implementation affect the impacts of two decades economic growth on poverty. Absence of political stability during the last twenty years eroded community participation in economic growth and structural transformation. In the same way inefficient and ineffective public services provision aggravate public discontent or dissatisfaction throughout the country. Realizing this fact the ruling party take responsibility and implemented broad-based political and economic reform. This reform boldly implemented in the country during the last four months. The measure taken by the Dr. Abiy’s reforms expected to improve inclusive economic development and political stability. This would be the turning point for the nation to transform the country at the higher level of economic and political system.

Alemayehu G. Mariam and Tamagne Beyene(2018): We Must Keep Our Eyes on the Prize in Ethiopia!

Paul Schemm(2018): After years of unrest, Ethiopians are riding an unlikely wave of hope. Will it last?

Yohannes Gedamu(2018): Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed and the survival of the ruling EPRDF

[1] The author can be reached by email address:a.teshom@gmail.com

[2] Ethiopia’s Premier In A Denial Syndrome by G.Amare on 08-19-1

[3] Where Are We Headed? By Yene Gasha on 08-14-18.

[4] OLF, Abiy and, TPLF, by Zeru Hagos Aug 20, 2018

[5] The developmental state implemented in the country during the last ten years could not create more efficient public enterprise. In addition to this the stat failed to regulate and make efficient the market mechanism in the economy. I call this types of developmental state non innovative developmental state.

[6] Professor Alemayehu G. Mariam teaches political science at California State University, San Bernardino. His teaching areas include American constitutional law, civil rights law, judicial process, American and California state governments, and African politics.

[7] Tamagne Beyene is the foremost human rights activist in the Ethiopian Diaspora. He is also a celebrated musical and performing artist.

[8] There are imbalances across countries; socioeconomic, ethnic and racial groups; urban and rural areas; and women and men. Millions of people are unable to reach their full potential in life because they suffer deprivations in multiple dimensions of human development(UNDP,2016).

[9] Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn submitted his resignation on Feb. 15 in a bid to facilitate reforms following years of widespread unrest.

[10] Abiy joined the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) and the EPRDF in 1991, according to his official biography

[11] When the Derg fell, Abiy Ahmed, who was recently elected as the EPRDF’s chairman and sworn in as prime minister on Monday, was just 14 years old. But even then, Abiy, who was born to a Muslim father and a Christian mother in the Oromo town of Beshasha in southwestern Ethiopia, was becoming politically active (Nizar Manek,2018).

[12] The one party dominance system in China involves all political organizations in the political decision process. The ruling parties not decide alone if the other political party disagrees. The board of political party has established to increase their participation in the country.