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Ethiopia: Before it becomes a fait accompli

Ethiopia: Before it becomes a fait accompli


AbelXYZ Dec 03, 2016


While poor Ethiopia is busy striving to extricate itself from the abject of poverty by using its meager resources to meet the very basic needs of its citizens, Egypt, once again, is plotting to keep the nation curbed in its old self. And the suitable scheme Egypt chose to realize its objective is to use disgruntled Ethiopian nationals and outside forces to create social upheavals and mayhems


Unlike the wars of Gundet and Gura, which were fought in 1875 and1876 respectively, in which Egypt journeyed all the way to Northern Ethiopia to form a new Egyptian Empire in the Eastern part of Africa to control the water, this time it has employed its foreign and domestic proxies, and the result is now plentifully clear.


For centuries Egyptian leaders have consistently applied immutable hostile policies against Ethiopia. During the earlier centuries, Egyptian rulers used religion (both Christianity and Islam) to peacefully control Ethiopia, and since late 1950’s, they added the policy of methodical strangulation to suffocate Ethiopia (The Cross and the River: Ethiopia, Egypt, and the Nile, Haggai Erlich). When East African countries became sovereign, President Gemal Abdul Nassir lured them with financial and security incentives to join the Arab League. Traditionally Egypt was the dominant Arab cause promoter with handy political, education, military and diplomatic capitals. It misused the Arab nationalism in the League to embolden its interests in the region.  Its explicit and tacit goal in the region was one: to permanently keep Ethiopia entangled in its serfdom like governance arrangement. Although Ethiopia was in similar developmental stage of Egypt in the 1970’s, it applied constant inimical guidelines to hinder national betterment. Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea (observer) were recruited exclusively for that purpose. Now, Egypt is trying to recruit the newest nation South Sudan to join the Arab League.


Egypt has unswervingly and cleverly misused any diplomatic, military, security and political sprout manipulating and codifying provisions to throttle Ethiopia. Although all nations pursue policies to secure their interests, Egypt’s antagonistic policy towards Ethiopia has been incompatible with norms. At the voting vet to select Ethiopia for the two year UN Security Council membership, Egypt and Eritrea were two of the five countries that opposed its nomination. Knowing the long history of the two nation in the region and the goodness of Ethiopia to the people of Egypt since primordial, the negative vote was a tiny manifestation of the long lived sinister policy.


Past (and to certain degree present) Ethiopian leaders have failed to cogitate Egypt’s haughtiness in the manners it deserve by redesigning the utmost security arrangements commensurate with the threat. There have been manifold overtly executed evidences to assent the belligerence of Egypt. 


While some may choose to see Ethiopia primarily through the lens of its sporadic droughts, famine and civil wars, the nation is home to ancient breathtaking civilizations. It is one of the dozen countries that have never been colonized by colonial powers, and the only African country to have been a member of the League of Nations. Ethiopia, under its current government, which hailed out of the cradle of the long lived social maladies, is showing remarkable developmental strides in all aspects, and this has not gone well with Egypt. 


As the country is home to 100 + million diverse people, many of which with historical grievances against preceded governments, and some within the federal and regional administrations are corrupted, incompetent or unprincipled to the long term strategic interest of the republic. Ethiopia is further a country of emerging democratic culture, where the use of reason based skills to mitigate differences without compromising long term national security interest are still infantile. Of course, Egypt is delighted to exploit those observable national shortcomings and use them to impose its interests even if the outcomes are detrimental to the existence of nationhood as a unit.


One should observe the disgraceful selfish, unpatriotic and short sighted habits of some of the runaway Ethiopians coalescing with and funneling foreign antagonist actors against their birth country.


Not only are the forces that were the source of the socio-political misery have sworn to derail what has been achieved in the republic but also are working as the principal tool of the enemy in its sinister plot to dismember Ethiopia. Those 21st century subversive forces include G7, OLF and ONLF, and their shared goal and strategy is analogous to the hired mercenaries to fulfil the political interest of avowed regional foe. They are paid proxies of Egypt and HGDF led Eritrea, committing treason against their own country to help Egypt’s strategic interest. For centuries Egypt has consistently followed dominant strategic policies anchored on destabilizing Ethiopia. Due to the far reaching changes occurred in the geo-politics of the region, the traditional Egyptian overall subscriptions have been reformed by making HGDF led Eritrea the epic center of Ethiopia’s predicament and the newest version of G7, ONLF and OLF as the main instruments.

Few years ago, the then Egyptian President Muhammad Mursi was caught redhandedly on live television affirming the sinister intention of his government.


In the round table intrigue Egyptian political and civic leaders alongside of their president were openly plotting how to destabilize Ethiopia by using the neighboring countries and some of the ethnics within the country. Such an open ill-disposed transgression by Egypt against a sovereign nation (Ethiopia) that has no shared political boundary, and was in good term is unheard of in modern politics. Sadly, I have the feeling Egypt may have lived true to its ominous flouting, and Ethiopia should straightaway rearrange its national security priorities.


The Ethiopian government has been trying to bring the republic out of the quagmire, and the results are quite remarkable. Though Ethiopia considers poverty as its “chief enemy,” and used the country's meager resources and developmental assistance to meet its “people focused” progressive mantra, it underestimated or miscalculated the long-lived volatile geo-political history of the region, including the unremitting hostile policies of Egypt. Trust, mutual development and/or having good wish alone cannot substitute the imperative strategic, diplomatic and political rapprochements with far and near stake holders. Once Ethiopia was serious in damming the dam, the political leaders of the country should have expected Egypt to do everything at its disposal to stop the construction. It was shocking why Ethiopia failed to bring the baleful transgression Egypt made to the international organization including to the UN Security Council and the African Union.


Further, it’s dealing with HGDF led Eritrea was overly relied on dubious anticipation. There is no single policy on earth that remains efficient in bringing permanent good outcome, and Ethiopia’s policy makers were supposed to reassess the efficacy of the approach. Expecting HGDF to change its hostile behavior is tantamount to expecting the palm to grow hair.


As our sacrosanct sole interest is realizing an all-inclusive prosperous and democratic Ethiopia, the government should fast surround itself with capable advisers and experts on a range of relevant disciplines, and pursue the right course to neutralize the potentially portentous national peril.


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